Assessment of the Extreme Rainfall Event at Nashville,TN and the Surrounding Region on May 1–3, 2010

This paper analyzes the May 1–3, 2010 rainfall event that affected the south‐central United States, including parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The storm is evaluated in terms of its synoptic setting, along with the temporal distributions, and spatial patterns of the rainfall. In addition, the recurrence interval of the storm is assessed and the implications for hydrologic structure designs are discussed. The event was associated with an upper‐level trough and stationary frontal boundary to the west of the rainfall region, which remained quasi‐stationary for a period of 48 h. Heavy rainfall was produced by two slow‐moving mesoscale convective complexes, combined with abundant atmospheric moisture. Storm totals exceeding 330 mm occurred within a large elongated area extending from Memphis to Nashville. Isolated rainfall totals over 480 mm were reported in some areas, with NEXRAD weather radar rainfall estimates up to 501 mm. An extreme value analysis was performed for one‐ and two‐day rainfall totals at Nashville and Brownsville, Tennessee, as well as for gridded rainfall estimates for the entire region using the Storm Precipitation Analysis System. Results suggest maximum rainfall totals for some durations during the May 1–3, 2010 event exceeded the 1,000‐year rainfall values from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 for a large portion of the region and reached up to 80% of the probable maximum precipitation values for some area sizes and durations.     

Uncertainty in exhaustible natural resource economics: The irreversible sunk costs of Hotelling

According to Pindyck (2007) there are three important aspects of uncertainly in environmental economics: (1) the benefits and costs of environmental policy tend to be highly non-linear, (2) environmental policy tends to involve important irreversibilities, where investment in pollution abatement can impose an irreversible, sunk cost on society, and where certain pollutants can stay in the environment forever and build up to cause even more future harm in which case investment in abatement can cause an irreversible, sunk benefit to society, and (3) environmental policy involves long time horizons and yet the discount rate society should use is uncertain for determining the net present value of costs and benefits of pollution abatement. These same uncertainties also affect non-renewable, exhaustible, natural resource economics and in particular the use of the Hotelling rule: (1) the costs, benefits and transversality conditions of using the Hotelling rule can be highly non-linear, (2) the Hotelling rule involves important sunk cost irreversibilities, which will be explained here, and (3) the Hotelling rule can involve long time horizons with uncertain discount rates. All three of these problem make it extremely difficult for a market to use in any way the Hotelling rule, yet by the sheer number of articles in non-renewable natural resource economics, one would believe that it is the basis of all resource markets. In this article, we concentrate on the sunk cost irreversibilities of using the Hotelling rule. The idea of the Hotelling rule is to optimally store a non-renewable resource, but the optimization is highly dependent on the actual reserves that are available to extract. However, reserves of underground exhaustible resources are often unobservable at the beginning stages of extraction which makes using the Hotelling Rule difficult.     

Seeking knowledge of traditional Indigenous burning practices to inform regional bushfire management

ABSTRACT

A transdisciplinary review of the current academic knowledge of Indigenous traditional fire management is presented for the Mt Lofty Ranges in South Australia. For a long time, the roles of Indigenous management of the landscape have either been overlooked or discounted within environmental studies. That situation is beginning to change in many parts of Australia. However, this review of knowledge of traditional Indigenous burning practices specifically for the Mt Lofty Ranges suggests that there is very little formalised, academic knowledge available that could be utilised to inform prescribed burning practices in the region. Perhaps Indigenous peoples’ use of fire was strongly governed by individual choices, or perhaps established regimes demarcated roles across groups; perhaps some areas were burnt regularly and others were left unaltered – there is still no clear evidence from the academic literature to provide even limited understandings of such elements of pre-colonial fire regimes. That gap in knowledge will become increasingly problematic as the need for appropriate, sophisticated burning practices to respond to risk in peri-urban Adelaide increases with a changing climate. To learn from traditional Indigenous land management: (a) formal knowledge needs to be generated on past regional burning practices; and (b) understanding needs to be developed as to whether past burning practices could lead to effective hazard management and biodiversity outcomes within contemporary landscapes. Such an integration of Indigenous knowledge for effective environmental management will only be possible if the injustices of past exclusions of the importance of Indigenous biocultural practices are recognised.     

Looking beyond the flowers: associations of stingless bees with sap-sucking insects

The study addresses in vitro degradation potential of airborne Aspergillus and Penicillium/Talarmyces species originating from cultural heritage conservation premises. A series of rapid, cost effective biodegradation assays were performed to assess production of extracellular pigments, acids, and enzymes. Most of the isolates have demonstrated positive growth in at least one of the preformed tests. Strongest overall degradation potential was demonstrated for Penicillium brevicompactum, P. glabrum, and Talaromyces sayulitensis while Aspergillus domesticus, A. penicillioides, A. pseudoglaucus, and A. ruber did not exhibit positive reaction in any of the employed assays. Majority of isolates exhibited proteolytic and cellulolytic activity while carbonate dissolution was observed for only five tested fungi. Highest alteration of pH value in liquid media was documented for T. sayulitensis while A. niger and P. expansum exhibited strongest acid production on CREA. Certain isolates, mostly Penicillium species, displayed production of extracellular pigments. The results imply that many of the tested fungi have significant biodegradation capacity, indicating their potential to inflict structural and esthetic alterations on cultural heritage objects.

     

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.     

Early amniocentesis: A clinical review

Early amniocentesis at less than 14 weeks gestation is becoming more common in prenatal diagnosis populations. Randomized studies are minimal and have not had the power to determine the accuracy and safety of the procedure compared to chorionic villus sampling or mid-trimester amniocentesis. Procedures at 11⁺⁰-12⁺⁶ weeks should be considered experimental. This clinical review considers the ethics, embryology, and clinical experience (cytogenetics, AFP, AChE, procedure and cytogenetic failures, spontaneous and therapeutic pregnancy losses, congenital anomalies) of early amniocentesis.     

Resource Selection Probability Functions for Gopher Tortoise: Providing a Management Tool Applicable Across the Species’ Range

The gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is protected by conservation policy throughout its range. Efforts to protect the species from further decline demand detailed understanding of its habitat requirements, which have not yet been rigorously defined. Current methods of identifying gopher tortoise habitat typically rely on coarse soil and vegetation classifications, and are prone to over-prediction of suitable habitat. We used a logistic resource selection probability function in an information-theoretic framework to understand the relative importance of various environmental factors to gopher tortoise habitat selection, drawing on nationwide environmental datasets, and an existing tortoise survey of the Ft. Benning military base. We applied the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an index of vegetation density, and found that NDVI was strongly negatively associated with active burrow locations. Our results showed that the most parsimonious model included variables from all candidate model types (landscape features, topography, soil, vegetation), and the model groups describing soil or vegetation alone performed poorly. These results demonstrate with a rigorous quantitative approach that although soil and vegetation are important to the gopher tortoise, they are not sufficient to describe suitable habitat. More widely, our results highlight the feasibility of constructing highly accurate habitat suitability models from data that are widely available throughout the species’ range. Our study shows that the widespread availability of national environmental datasets describing important components of gopher tortoise habitat, combined with existing tortoise surveys on public lands, can be leveraged to inform knowledge of habitat suitability and target recovery efforts range-wide.     

Mainstreaming the social sciences in conservation

Despite broad recognition of the value of social sciences and increasingly vocal calls for better engagement with the human element of conservation, the conservation social sciences remain misunderstood and underutilized in practice. The conservation social sciences can provide unique and important contributions to society's understanding of the relationships between humans and nature and to improving conservation practice and outcomes. There are 4 barriers—ideological, institutional, knowledge, and capacity—to meaningful integration of the social sciences into conservation. We provide practical guidance on overcoming these barriers to mainstream the social sciences in conservation science, practice, and policy. Broadly, we recommend fostering knowledge on the scope and contributions of the social sciences to conservation, including social scientists from the inception of interdisciplinary research projects, incorporating social science research and insights during all stages of conservation planning and implementation, building social science capacity at all scales in conservation organizations and agencies, and promoting engagement with the social sciences in and through global conservation policy‐influencing organizations. Conservation social scientists, too, need to be willing to engage with natural science knowledge and to communicate insights and recommendations clearly. We urge the conservation community to move beyond superficial engagement with the conservation social sciences. A more inclusive and integrative conservation science—one that includes the natural and social sciences—will enable more ecologically effective and socially just conservation. Better collaboration among social scientists, natural scientists, practitioners, and policy makers will facilitate a renewed and more robust conservation. Mainstreaming the conservation social sciences will facilitate the uptake of the full range of insights and contributions from these fields into conservation policy and practice.     

Comparing the Number of Ozone Exceedances in Different Seasons of the Year in Mexico City

Ozone air pollution is a serious problem in several cities of the world. Hence, to analyse the behaviour of this pollutant is a very important issue. One problem of interest is to study the behaviour of the inter-occurrences times between two ozone exceedances, i.e. between two days in which the pollutant’s measurement surpasses a given threshold. Another interest resides in comparing the behaviour of ozone measurements in different seasons of the year. In this paper we use some Poisson models to analyse this problem. The time interval at which the ozone measurements were taken is split into subintervals corresponding roughly to the seasons of the year. We consider three parametric forms for the mean of the Poisson model, and consequently for the mean of the inter-occurrences times. In each model, the parameters describing its mean are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The models are applied to the ozone measurements provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. Theoretical results suggest that an increase has occurred in the mean inter-exceedances times and this is corroborated by the observed data. Differences between the behaviour of the pollutant during different seasons of the year are also detected as well as similarities in the same season in different years. Besides estimating the mean of the Poisson models, inference for the possible presence and location of change-points indicating change of parameters of the model is also performed.     

Assessing the risk to firefighters from chemical vapors and gases during vehicle fire suppression

Despite the frequent occurrence of vehicle fires, very few studies investigating firefighters' potential inhalation exposures during vehicle fire suppression have been conducted. In this paper, we present an assessment of firefighters' health risk from vehicle fire suppression that accounts for the mixture of gases and vapors likely to be found in these fires. Summa canisters were used to collect emissions from the engine and cabin fires of a single vehicle and were analyzed for 75 volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Firefighters' breathing zone concentrations (BZCs) of aromatic hydrocarbons, aldehydes, isocyanates, and carbon monoxide were measured during the suppression of three vehicle fires. The Summa canister and BZC data were used to develop a simple model for predicting BZCs for the compounds that were not measured in the firefighters' breathing zones. Hazard quotients (HQs) were calculated by dividing the predicted and measured BZCs by the most conservative short-term exposure limits (STELs) or ceiling limits. Hazard indices (HIs) were determined by adding HQs for compounds grouped by the target organ for acute health effects. Any HIs above unity represented unacceptable risks. According to this mixture analysis, the estimated 95(th) percentile of the exposure distribution for the study population represents ≥ 9.2 times the acceptable level of risk to the respiratory tract and eyes. Furthermore, chemicals known or reasonably anticipated to be human carcinogens contributed to > 45% of these HIs. While STELs are not usually based on carcinogenicity, maintaining exposures below STELs may protect individuals from the biological stress that could result from short-term exposures to carcinogens over time. Although vehicle fires are suppressed quickly (<10 min), this assessment suggests that firefighters have the potential to be overexposed to acute toxins during vehicle fire suppression and should therefore wear self-contained breathing apparatus at all times during vehicle fire response.