Weighted Regressions on Time,Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), with an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs1

Hirsch, Robert M., Douglas L. Moyer, and Stacey A. Archfield, 2010. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), With an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):857-880. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x Abstract: A new approach to the analysis of long-term surface water-quality data is proposed and implemented. The goal of this approach is to increase the amount of information that is extracted from the types of rich water-quality datasets that now exist. The method is formulated to allow for maximum flexibility in representations of the long-term trend, seasonal components, and discharge-related components of the behavior of the water-quality variable of interest. It is designed to provide internally consistent estimates of the actual history of concentrations and fluxes as well as histories that eliminate the influence of year-to-year variations in streamflow. The method employs the use of weighted regressions of concentrations on time, discharge, and season. Finally, the method is designed to be useful as a diagnostic tool regarding the kinds of changes that are taking place in the watershed related to point sources, groundwater sources, and surface-water nonpoint sources. The method is applied to datasets for the nine large tributaries of Chesapeake Bay from 1978 to 2008. The results show a wide range of patterns of change in total phosphorus and in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. These results should prove useful in further examination of the causes of changes, or lack of changes, and may help inform decisions about future actions to reduce nutrient enrichment in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.     

A multi-period optimization model for energy planning with CO2 emission consideration

A novel deterministic multi-period mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model for the power generation planning of electric systems is described and evaluated in this paper. The model is developed with the objective of determining the optimal mix of energy supply sources and pollutant mitigation options that meet a specified electricity demand and CO₂ emission targets at minimum cost. Several time-dependent parameters are included in the model formulation; they include forecasted energy demand, fuel price variability, construction lead time, conservation initiatives, and increase in fixed operational and maintenance costs over time. The developed model is applied to two case studies. The objective of the case studies is to examine the economical, structural, and environmental effects that would result if the electricity sector was required to reduce its CO₂ emissions to a specified limit.     

Statistical Errors in Beta Absorption Measurements of Particulate Mass Concentration

There are a number of new instruments which use the attenuation of beta radiation to determine the mass of particulate matter collected in various fashions, and thus to determine its mass concentration.^1–3 It has been shown that the mass concentration, c, can be obtained from the relationship     

Variation in measures of immunocompetence of sea fan coral, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gorgonia ventalina</Emphasis>, in the Florida Keys

Aspergillosis is a widespread disease that has impacted the demography of the Caribbean sea fan coral, Gorgonia ventalina. The innate coral immune defenses can be measured as constitutive levels of immune proteins (peroxidase [POX], prophenoloxidase [PPO], lysozyme-like activity [LYS], exochitinase [EXOC]), antioxidant (superoxide dismutase [SOD]), and antimicrobial (antibacterial [AB] and antifungal [AF]) activity. Therefore, variations in these parameters across a geographic region could provide clues to the role of environment in disease. This study examined healthy sea fans collected in July 2005 from six offshore sites in the Florida Keys lying between 24.569°N and 25.220°N, a distance of ~145 km. Contrary to expectations, small (<15 cm) colonies did not differ significantly from large colonies (>15 cm) in the protein-based levels of activity in any of the measured parameters. However, there were significant differences in many of the parameters among sites, and Molasses Reef and Looe Key Reef were the most different in POX, PPO, SOD, and AF activity. This suggests that there are potential site-specific environmental factors that shape the immune physiology of colonies. Several proxies of environmental stress were also regressed against levels of the immune parameters. The proxies included 10 year averages of benthic community composition, 5 year averages of water quality, and historic aspergillosis disease prevalence and severity. Generality about environmental drivers was limited by assaying only six sites, but several patterns did emerge. SOD, EXOC, and AF activity were all correlated with percent bare substrate cover, suggesting that certain immune components may be activated in low coral environments. LYS and EXOC activity were positively correlated with dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), one proxy of water quality. There were no relationships between any of the measured immune parameters and previous disease prevalence and severity. This study is a first step in evaluating levels of within- and between-site variation in coral immunity and investigating possible environmental drivers.     

Ecological Correlates of Whooping Crane Use of Fire-Treated Upland Habitats

The only remaining wild population of the endangered Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ) winters in salt marsh habitats of the Texas (U.S.) coast. Whooping Cranes are known to respond and utilize nearby upland habitats after a tire treatment has been applied. We investigated several factors that may attract Whooping Cranes to recently burned sites at Aransas National Wildlife Refuge between 1982 and 1994 and whether cranes utilize upland habitats primarily in response to a recent fire treatment or whether they occur regularly on uplands regardless of burning. We evaluated the effect of different years, burn site location, date of burn, and acorn production on crane use of specific burn sites. Crane use was determined with ground surveys from 1982 through 1985 and from weekly aerial surveys between 1986 and 1994. Whooping Cranes used fire-treated upland habitats to a significantly greater extent than unburned sites. The response of cranes to recently burned sites was greatest immediately after fire treatment and declined with time. No significant difference was found in crane use of burned sites among different years. Similarly, time of burn and acorn production had no significant effect on crane use of fire-treated habitats. Crane use among specific burn units differed significantly. We suggest that Whooping Cranes may be using fire-treated upland habitats to feed on recently killed vertebrates and invertebrates plus recently exposed plant items. Because cranes primarily inhabit salt marsh habitats, the availability of alternate food sources may be of considerable importance, particularly during years when marsh foods are scarce. But because it appears that areas must be burned to facilitate use by Whooping Cranes, we suggest that the extent of prescribed burning be based on reduced availability of marsh food resources and not on acorn production estimates alone.     

Using forest guards to protect a biological reserve in Costa Rica: one step towards linking parks to people

The paper examines a forest guard system protecting Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve in Costa Rica. Using field observation, interviews and content analysis of records, the study determines the major threats facing the reserve from the local population. These threats, which include hunting, squatting and logging, are dealt with by the guards not just by creating barriers but by the guards as linkages among the many participants in the region. Community, institutional, legal and ecological linkages are identified, described and measured. The community linkage is recognized as particularly important because the Reserve's protection will be greatly enhanced if the community itself becomes ‘the guards’ and protects the Reserve. Policy recommendations are made based on the results.     

Integrated resource management systems: Coupling expert systems with data-base management and geographic information systems

Decision making in natural resource management is becoming increasingly information-intensive because of the rising public concerns about resource conservation and environmental quality. The volume of information that must be analyzed and the complexity of the decision-making process demands that computerized systems be developed to provide decision support services. An integrated systems approach that couples data-base management, geographic information systems, and expert systems is needed. We refer to such an approach as integrated resource management automation (IRMA) and describe a prototype system that is currently being tested in the Nicolet National Forest. This type of information system is likely to play an increasingly important role in the management of natural resources in the future.