Assessing Effectiveness of National Flood Policy Through Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Socioeconomic Exposure1

Abstract: After a century of evolving flood policies, there has been a steady increase in flood losses, which has partly been driven by development in flood prone areas. National flood policy was revised in 1994 to focus on limiting and reducing the amount of development inside the 100‐year floodplain, with the goal of decreasing flood losses, which can be measured and quantified in terms of population and property value inside the 100‐year floodplain. Monitoring changes in these measurable indicators can inform where and how effective national floodplain management strategies have been. National flood policies are restricted to the spatial extent of the 100‐year floodplain, thus there are no development regulations to protect against flooding adjacent to this boundary. No consistent monitoring has been undertaken to examine the effect of flood policy on development immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain. We developed a standardized methodology, which leveraged national data to quantify changes in population and building tax value (exposure). We applied this approach to counties in North Carolina to assess (1) temporal changes, before and after the 1994 policy and (2) spatial changes, inside and adjacent to the 100‐year floodplain. Temporal results indicate the Piedmont and Mountain Region had limited success at reducing exposure within the 100‐year floodplain, while the Coastal Plain successfully reduced exposure. Spatially, there was a significant increase in exposure immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain throughout North Carolina. The lack of consistent monitoring has resulted in the continuation of this unintended consequence, which could be a significant driver of increased flood losses as any flood even slightly higher than the 100‐year floodplain will have a disproportionately large impact since development is outside the legal boundary of national flood policy.     

Modeling the Persistence of Small Populations of Strongly Interdependent Species: Figs and Fig Wasps

Conservation problems are usually studied at the population or ecosystem levels. Formulating predictive theory for the domain in between has been difficult. Fig trees and their pollinating wasps, principally tropical groups of organisms, form pairs of obligate mutualists that provide unique opportunities for studying the influence of species interactions on the survival of small populations. Survival of each partner depends on that of the associated species. The pollinator population can be maintained only if figs are produced year-round. Because fig trees flower synchronously at the individual level, wasps have to locate a new individual host tree at each generation. We describe results of simulation models estimating the minimum number of trees required to maintain a wasp population using two levels of the criteria: (1) different probability of survival (50% and 99%) and (2) different time of survival (5 or 1000 years). We also examined how these different estimates are sensitive to differences in the seasonality of flowering period and in the length of the period of female receptivity in figs. Such estimates can be used to understand the potential effects of the reduction of fig population size via fragmentation. Unlike most studies on the effect of low population size on population viability, our paper focuses on maintenance of a biotic interaction, rather than on single-species dynamics. The biotic interaction on which we focus is important because figs in many tropical ecosystems may be keystone resources for frugivores that are in turn essential seed dispersal agents for other plants.     

Conditional Water Rights in the Western United States: Introducing Uncertainty to Prior Appropriation?

In the prior‐appropriation water rights regimes that prevail in the arid western United States, claims to annually variable surface water flows are fulfilled based on the order of their establishment. The two‐step process used to establish an appropriative water right in all 17 conterminous western states creates a temporary phase, or conditional water right, which has a priority date but no actual water use. We provide a review of the legal basis for these conditional water rights and demonstrate the potential uncertainty they introduce to current water users. We then present a complete census of conditional water rights in Colorado, including their amounts, ages, and uses. At the end of 2012 there were a large number of conditional water rights in Colorado (some over 90 years old) equal to 61% of the perfected water rights. Many of the controversial conditional water rights in Colorado have been associated with unconventional oil production in the northwestern portion of the state; however, conditional water rights are ubiquitous across the state and across many use types. In several basins, their existence can introduce uncertainty to some of the most senior water rights holders. Nevertheless, in most of the state, the effects of conditional water rights are restricted to a relatively junior class of water users. This work quantifies for the first time the result, in one state, of a peculiar aspect of water law common across all western prior‐appropriation states.     

Influence of dung volatiles on the process of resource selection by coprophagous beetles

Summary. Most dung beetles colonize the faeces of several vertebrate species without much discrimination, and are thus often considered as polyphagous. Recent studies have provided evidence for clear feeding preferences in scarab beetles colonizing dung of herbivore species, but little is known about these insects’ abilities to discriminate among odours from faeces of various herbivores. In this study, trophic preferences were examined using blocks of pitfall traps baited with dung from four different herbivore species, i.e., sheep, cattle, horse, and red deer, in a mountainous area of south-central France. 4941 coprophagous scarabs, belonging to 27 species, were captured. Beetles were more attracted to dung of sheep (2257 individuals) than that of cattle (1294 individuals), followed by deer dung (768 individuals) and horse dung (622 individuals). Eleven of the 27 beetle species collected had significant feeding preferences for one of the four dung types. For each insect species, trophic habits did not vary between the two different sites of trapping, an open pasture and a wooded habitat. In laboratory olfactometer bioassays, scarab beetles orientated preferentially towards the dung volatiles from the dung type they preferred in the field. Trypocopris pyrenaeus, Anoplotrupes stercorosus, and Aphodius rufipes were more attracted to volatile compounds from sheep dung, Onthophagus fracticornis significantly preferred horse dung volatiles, and Aphodius haemorrhoidalis responded positively to deer dung odours. The role of dung olfactory cues in the process of resource selection by dung beetles is discussed.     

Global patterns of epipelagic gelatinous zooplankton biomass

There is concern that overfishing may lead to a proliferation of jellyfish through a process known as fishing down the food web. However, there has been no global synthesis of patterns of gelatinous zooplankton biomass (GZB), an important first step in determining any future trends. A meta-analysis of epipelagic-GZB patterns was undertaken, encompassing 58 locations on a global scale, and spanning the years 1967–2009. Epipelagic-GZB decreased strongly with increasing total water column depth (r ² = 0.543, p < 0.001, n = 58): in shallow (<50 m) coastal waters, epipelagic-GZB was typically 742× the levels in deep ocean (>2,000 m) sites. However, the ratio of GZB to primary productivity showed high values across a range of depths, i.e. this measure of the relative abundance of gelatinous zooplankton did not co-vary with depth.     

GEOMORPHIC ANALOGIES FOR ASSESSING PROBABLE CHANNEL RESPONSE TO DAM REMOVAL1

ABSTRACT: There is a pressing need for tools to predict the rates, magnitudes, and mechanisms by which sediment is removed from a reservoir following dam removal, as well as for tools to predict where this sediment will be deposited downstream and how it will impact downstream channel morphology. In the absence of adequate empirical data, a good initial approach is to examine the impacts of dam removal within the context of the geomorphic analogies of channel evolution models and sediment waves. Channel changes at two dam breaching sites in Wisconsin involved a succession of channel forms and processes consistent with an existing channel evolution model. Sediment transported downstream after removal of other dams suggests that reservoir sediment may be translated downstream either as a distinct wave or gradually eroded away. More extensive data collection on existing dam removals is warranted before undertaking the removal of a large number of dams. However, if removal is to proceed based on current knowledge, then geomorphic analogies can be used as the foundation for sediment management and stabilization schemes.     

Critical Evaluation of How the Rosgen Classification and Associated “Natural Channel Design” Methods Fail to Integrate and Quantify Fluvial Processes and Channel Response1

Abstract: Over the past 10 years the Rosgen classification system and its associated methods of “natural channel design” have become synonymous to some with the term “stream restoration” and the science of fluvial geomorphology. Since the mid 1990s, this classification approach has become widely adopted by governmental agencies, particularly those funding restoration projects. The purposes of this article are to present a critical review, highlight inconsistencies and identify technical problems of Rosgen’s “natural channel design” approach to stream restoration. This paper’s primary thesis is that alluvial streams are open systems that adjust to altered inputs of energy and materials, and that a form‐based system largely ignores this critical component. Problems with the use of the classification are encountered with identifying bankfull dimensions, particularly in incising channels and with the mixing of bed and bank sediment into a single population. Its use for engineering design and restoration may be flawed by ignoring some processes governed by force and resistance, and the imbalance between sediment supply and transporting power in unstable systems. An example of how C5 channels composed of different bank sediments adjust differently and to different equilibrium morphologies in response to an identical disturbance is shown. This contradicts the fundamental underpinning of “natural channel design” and the “reference‐reach approach.” The Rosgen classification is probably best applied as a communication tool to describe channel form but, in combination with “natural channel design” techniques, are not diagnostic of how to mitigate channel instability or predict equilibrium morphologies. For this, physically based, mechanistic approaches that rely on quantifying the driving and resisting forces that control active processes and ultimate channel morphology are better suited as the physics of erosion, transport, and deposition are the same regardless of the hydro‐physiographic province or stream type because of the uniformity of physical laws.     

Congenital cystic hygroma of the neck diagnosed prenatally: Outcome with normal and abnormal karyotype

Twenty-two cases of cystic hygromas were diagnosed prenatally at Eastern Virginia Medical School and followed through the neonatal period. Our series was combined with 131 cases which have been described in the literature. Karyotypes were obtained in 110 fetuses and 80 (72·7 per cent) were abnormal. Fifty-one were not terminated: 30 with abnormal and 21 with normal karyotypes. There were no neonatal survivors in the group with abnormal karyotypes. There were five survivors in the 21 with normal karyotypes but only 2/21 without severe medical complications. Combining our series with those previously reported in the literature would suggest only a 2–3 per cent rate of intact survivors when fetal cystic hygromas are diagnosed in utero. This information should be helpful when counselling patients whose pregnancies carry this diagnosis.     

Genetic analysis of shell-shape variation in Littorina saxatilis on an environmental cline

Three shell-shape parameters of Littorina saxatilis were measured and found to vary in a regular pattern with distance up an estuary. The translation rate of the shell increased, the rate of whorl expansion decreased and the circularity of the aperture decreased proceeding from the exposed shore to the protected shore. The genetic variance of these traits was estimated from the full-sib covariance and the motheroffspring covariance. The genetic variance of the translation rate and the circularity of the aperture was low in all populations, but the genetic variance of the rate of whorl expansion was high on the exposed shore and low on the protected shore. It is argued that the change in mean phenotype of these traits is the result of natural selection produced by varying degrees of wave action and desiccation. The observed genetic variance is consistent with the theory that a trait under selection will show little additive genetic variance.