The time dimension and lithium resource constraints for electric vehicles

The availability of lithium resources for a transition to electric vehicles is a vital topic for transport technology strategy. Recent debate seems to have concluded that there is ‘sufficient’ lithium available, but for the purposes of a technological transition, time matters. It is not simply the quantity of resource that is relevant—the flow rate into society may be a much more difficult constraint and transient events have disrupted heavily concentrated material supply chains in the past. Furthermore, critical assumptions such as the presence of recycling systems may not be justified without policy support. Complacency is therefore not an appropriate stance for a robust evaluation of material risks in the case of lithium.     

Valuing freshwater salmon habitat on the west coast of Canada

Changes in land use can potentially reduce the quality of fish habitat and affect the economic value of commercial and sport fisheries that rely on the affected stocks. Parks and protected areas that restrict land-use activities provide benefits, such as ecosystem services, in addition to recreation and preservation of wildlife. Placing values on these other benefits of protected areas poses a major challenge for land-use planning. In this paper, we present a framework for valuing benefits for fisheries from protecting areas from degradation, using the example of the Strait of Georgia coho salmon fishery in southern British Columbia, Canada. Our study improves upon previous methods used to value fish habitat in two major respects. First, we use a bioeconomic model of the coho fishery to derive estimates of value that are consistent with economic theory. Second, we estimate the value of changing the quality of fish habitat by using empirical analyses to link fish population dynamics with indices of land use in surrounding watersheds. In our example, we estimated that the value of protecting habitat ecosystem services is C$0.93 to C$2.63 per ha of drainage basin or about C$1322 to C$7010 per km of salmon stream length (C$1.00=US$0.71). Sensitivity analyses suggest that these values are relatively robust to different assumptions, and if anything, are likely to be minimum estimates. Thus, when comparing alternative uses of land, managers should consider ecosystem services from maintaining habitat for productive fish populations along with other benefits of protected areas.     

Using a geographical information system for monitoring space shuttle launches: Determining cumulative distribution of deposition and an empirical test of a spatial model

Space shuttle launches produce localized hydrochloric acid deposition. The interaction of solid rocket motor exhaust and deluge water released on the pad at the time of launch results in the formation of an exhaust cloud. The spatial pattern and extent of deposition from the launch cloud are predicted by the rocket exhaust effluent diffusion (REED) model. The actual pattern of deposition has been mapped by field surveys for each shuttle launch since 1981. In this paper we use a geographical information system (GIS) to compare model predictions with ground patterns for 49 shuttle launches. We also compile cumulative maps of deposition patterns needed to consider long-term impacts. The direction of launch cloud movement did not differ significantly from model predictions. The REED model overpredicted both the area that received deposition and the maximum distance from the launch pad that deposition occurred. Severe vegetation damage was restricted to near-field deposition areas within 1980 m north of each launch pad. Total area impacted from launches has been 87.0 ha around pad 39A and 52.9 ha around pad 39B. Far-field deposition has caused leaf spotting from acid droplets or aluminum oxide over a wider and more variable area than near-field. A total of 19,397 ha has received deposition, but 63.6% of this area has received deposition only one time and 92.2% not more than three times. GIS techniques provide means to test spatial models and compile information useful for assessing cumulative impacts.     

Sources of lead and zinc associated with metal smelting activities in the Trail area,British Columbia,Canada

The spatial distribution and deposition of lead and zinc emitted from the Trail smelter, British Columbia, Canada, was studied by strategically locating moss bags in the area surrounding the smelter and monitoring the deposition of elements every three months. A combined diffusion/distribution model was applied to estimate the relative contribution of stack-emitted material and material emitted from the secondary sources (e.g., wind-blown dust from ore/slag storage piles, uncovered transportation/trucking of ore, and historical dust). The results indicate that secondary sources are the major contributor of lead and zinc deposited within a short distance from the smelter. Gradually, the stack emissions become the main source of Pb and Zn at greater distances from the smelter. Typical material originating from each source was characterized by SEM/EDX, which indicated a marked difference in their morphology and chemical composition.     

Use of the instream flow incremental methodology: A tool for negotiation

The resolution of conflicts arising from differing values and water uses requires technical information and negotiating skills. This article outlines the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM), developed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, and demonstrates that its use to quantify flows necessary to protect desired instream values aids negotiation by illustrating areas of agreement and possible compromises between conflicting water interests. Pursuant to a Section 404 permit application to the US Army Corps of Engineers made by City Utilities of Springfield, Missouri, in 1978, IFIM provided the means by which City Utilities, concerned with a secure water supply for a growing population, and those advocating instream values were satisfied that their requirements were met. In tracing the 15-month process, the authors conclude that the application of IFIM, as well as the cooperative stance adopted by the parties involved, were the key ingredients of the successful permit application.     

What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

Vegetation fire emissions and their impact on air pollution and climate

Gaseous and particulate emissions from vegetation fires substantially modify the atmospheric chemical composition, degrade air quality and can alter weather and climate. The impact of vegetation fire emissions on air pollution and climate has been recognised in the late 1970s. The application of satellite data for fire-related studies in the beginning of the 21th century represented a major break through in our understanding of the global importance of fires. Today the location and extent of vegetation fires, burned area and emissions released from fires are determined from satellite products even though many uncertainties persist. Numerous dedicated experimental and modeling studies contributed to improve the current knowledge of the atmospheric impact of vegetation fires. The motivation of this paper is to give an overview of vegetation fire emissions, their environmental and climate impact, and what improvements can be expected in the near future.