Shifts in a Pacific Ocean Fish Assemblage: the Potential Influence of Exploitation

Abstract:  As in many regions of the world, marine fishes and invertebrates along the Pacific coast of the United States have long been subjected to overexploitation. Despite this history, however, we lack basic information on the current status of many fishes along this coastline. We used data from a quarter century of fishery-independent, coast-wide trawl surveys to study systematically the demersal fish assemblages along the U.S. Pacific coast. We documented fundamental shifts in this fish assemblage. Average fish size, across a diversity of species, has declined 45% in 21 years. There have been major shifts in the constituent species of the assemblage, with some species achieving annual population growth rates of >10% and others declining in excess of 10% per year. Annual rate of change in population size appeared to be a function of life history interacting with fishing pressure. Negative trends in population size were particularly apparent in rockfish ( Sebastes spp.). However, across all taxa examined, trends in population size were associated with size of maturity, maximum size, and growth rate. Trends in population size were associated inversely with harvest levels, but stocks that mature late tended to decline faster than would be predicted by catch rates alone. Our results are disquieting because they raise the possibility that fishing-induced phase shifts in fish communities may affect the recovery of fishes, even after the implementation of severe fishing restrictions.     

Sensitivity of Marine-Reserve Design to the Spatial Resolution of Socioeconomic Data

Abstract:  Socioeconomic considerations should have an important place in reserve design. Systematic reserve-selection tools allow simultaneous optimization for ecological objectives while minimizing costs but are seldom used to incorporate socioeconomic costs in the reserve-design process. The sensitivity of this process to biodiversity data resolution has been studied widely but the issue of socioeconomic data resolution has not previously been considered. We therefore designed marine reserves for biodiversity conservation with the constraint of minimizing commercial fishing revenue losses and investigated how economic data resolution affected the results. Incorporating coarse-resolution economic data from official statistics generated reserves that were only marginally less costly to the fishery than those designed with no attempt to minimize economic impacts. An intensive survey yielded fine-resolution data that, when incorporated in the design process, substantially reduced predicted fishery losses. Such an approach could help minimize fisher displacement because the least profitable grounds are selected for the reserve. Other work has shown that low-resolution biodiversity data can lead to underestimation of the conservation value of some sites, and a risk of overlooking the most valuable areas, and we have similarly shown that low-resolution economic data can cause underestimation of the profitability of some sites and a risk of inadvertently including these in the reserve. Detailed socioeconomic data are therefore an essential input for the design of cost-effective reserve networks.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Evaluating Wolf Translocation as a Nonlethal Method to Reduce Livestock Conflicts in the Northwestern United States

Abstract:  Successful nonlethal management of livestock predation is important for conserving rare or endangered carnivores. In the northwestern United States, wolves ( Canis lupus ) have been translocated away from livestock to mitigate conflicts while promoting wolf restoration. We assessed predation on livestock, pack establishment, survival, and homing behavior of 88 translocated wolves with radiotelemetry to determine the effectiveness of translocation in our region and consider how it may be improved. More than one-quarter of translocated wolves preyed on livestock after release. Most translocated wolves (67%) never established or joined a pack, although eight new packs resulted from translocations. Translocated wolves had lower annual survival (0.60) than other radio-collared wolves (0.73), with government removal the primary source of mortality. In northwestern Montana, where most wolves have settled in human-populated areas with livestock, survival of translocated wolves was lowest (0.41) and more wolves proportionally failed to establish packs (83%) after release. Annual survival of translocated wolves was highest in central Idaho (0.71) and more wolves proportionally established packs (44%) there than in the other two recovery areas. Translocated wolves showed a strong homing tendency; most of those that failed to home still showed directional movement toward capture sites. Wolves that successfully returned to capture sites were more likely to be adults, hard (immediately) rather than soft (temporarily held in enclosure) released, and translocated shorter distances than other wolves that did not return home. Success of translocations varied and was most affected by the area in which wolves were released. We suggest managers translocating wolves or other large carnivores consider soft releasing individuals (in family groups, if social) when feasible because this may decrease homing behavior and increase release-site fidelity.     

The Threat of Disease Increases as Species Move Toward Extinction

At local scales, infectious disease is a common driver of population declines, but globally it is an infrequent contributor to species extinction and endangerment. For species at risk of extinction from disease important questions remain unanswered, including when does disease become a threat to species and does it co‐occur, predictably, with other threats? Using newly compiled data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we examined the relative role and co‐occurrence of threats associated with amphibians, birds, and mammals at 6 levels of extinction risk (i.e., Red List status categories: least concern, near threatened, vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, and extinct in the wild/extinct). We tested the null hypothesis that the proportion of species threatened by disease is the same in all 6 Red List status categories. Our approach revealed a new method for determining when disease most frequently threatens species at risk of extinction. The proportion of species threatened by disease varied significantly between IUCN status categories and linearly increased for amphibians, birds, and all species combined as these taxa move from move from least concern to critically endangered. Disease was infrequently the single contributing threat. However, when a species was negatively affected by a major threat other than disease (e.g., invasive species, land‐use change) that species was more likely to be simultaneously threatened by disease than species that had no other threats. Potential drivers of these trends include ecological factors, clustering of phylogenetically related species in Red List status categories, discovery bias among species at greater risk of extinction, and availability of data. We echo earlier calls for baseline data on the presence of parasites and pathogens in species when they show the first signs of extinction risk and arguably before. La Amenaza de Enfermedades Incrementa a Medida que las Especies se Aproximan a la Extinción     

Biofuels and Biodiversity: Principles for Creating Better Policies for Biofuel Production

Abstract:  Biofuels are a new priority in efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels; nevertheless, the rapid increase in production of biofuel feedstock may threaten biodiversity. There are general principles that should be used in developing guidelines for certifying biodiversity-friendly biofuels. First, biofuel feedstocks should be grown with environmentally safe and biodiversity-friendly agricultural practices. The sustainability of any biofuel feedstock depends on good growing practices and sound environmental practices throughout the fuel-production life cycle. Second, the ecological footprint of a biofuel, in terms of the land area needed to grow sufficient quantities of the feedstock, should be minimized. The best alternatives appear to be fuels of the future, especially fuels derived from microalgae. Third, biofuels that can sequester carbon or that have a negative or zero carbon balance when viewed over the entire production life cycle should be given high priority. Corn-based ethanol is the worst among the alternatives that are available at present, although this is the biofuel that is most advanced for commercial production in the United States. We urge aggressive pursuit of alternatives to corn as a biofuel feedstock. Conservation biologists can significantly broaden and deepen efforts to develop sustainable fuels by playing active roles in pursuing research on biodiversity-friendly biofuel production practices and by helping define biodiversity-friendly biofuel certification standards.     

Food Crises, Crisis Response and Emergency Preparedness: The Sudan Case

Food security problems should be seen as "normal" in and endemic to subsistence agricultural groups in semi-arid zones of developing countries. Natural, popular response mechanisms exist that address these problems when they are at "normal" levels. All response mechanisms in developing countries can be expected to be swamped in times of a major food emergency. During major crises international relief assistance will continue to play a crucial role. Attempts at imposing centralized, institutional social security systems that address the normal "pockets of need" syndrome will be extremely expensive, not self-sustaining, and prone to failure. In that these efforts may undermine natural response mechanisms and draw scarce resources away from more logical, decentralized relief agencies these efforts may prove dangerously counter-productive.