Conservation and the Lure of the Garden

Abstract:  Among the conservation voices today who seek a sensible "middle ground" in remedying land-use problems are those who propose a tend-the-garden ethic in which humans would merely need to view the earth as a garden and labor to make it productive and beautiful in order to solve conservation challenges. This line of reasoning is exemplified by Michael Pollan's highly praised book, Second Nature , which supports conservation values but harshly criticizes contemporary environmental efforts, including the work of such organizations as The Nature Conservancy. Pollan's portrayal of the gardener as model conservationist is usefully compared with an important essay by Aldo Leopold from a half-century ago, "The Farmer as a Conservationist," which similarly uses a model land tender as exemplar of where conservation needs to head. Comparing the two writings reveals profound flaws in the contemporary tend-the-garden line of thought. In doing so, it usefully reveals to scientists why their efforts are so often misunderstood and resisted. The popularity of tend-the-garden reasoning illustrates how successful the environmental backlash has been in misportraying the motives and aims of serious conservationists, particularly those who seek to protect wildlife and natural habitat. In doing so, it highlights the need for conservationists to take their own ideas more seriously and to do a far better job of presenting those ideas, in coherent form, to broad audiences.     

Designing a Conservation Landscape for Tigers in Human-Dominated Environments

Abstract:  Wildlife populations in small, isolated reserves face genetic and demographic threats to their survival. To increase the probability of long-term persistence, biologists promote metapopulation management, in which breeding subpopulations are protected as source pools. Animals that disperse from the source pools increase the probability of persistence of the metapopulation across the greater landscape. We used a geographic information system (GIS)–based, cost-distance model to design a conservation landscape along the Himalayan foothills for managing a metapopulation of Asia's largest predator, the tiger ( Panthera tigris ). The model is based on data from 30 years of field research on tigers, recent satellite imagery, and a decade of buffer-zone restoration in this region. We used the model to (1) identify potential dispersal corridors for tigers; (2) identify strategic transit refuges; and (3) make recommendations for off-reserve land management and restoration to enhance the potential of corridors for tigers. This tool can aid the design of conservation landscapes for other endangered, wide-ranging species in human-dominated environments.     

Evaluation of Long-term Community Recovery from Hurricane Andrew: Sources of Assistance Received by Population Sub-groups

Two three-stage cluster surveys were conducted in South Dade County, Florida, 14 months apart, to assess recovery following Hurricane Andrew. Response rates were 75 per cent and 84 per cent. Sources of assistance used in recovery from Hurricane Andrew differed according to race, per capita income, ethnicity, and education. Reports of improved living situation post-hurricane were not associated with receiving relief assistance, but reports of a worse situation were associated with loss of income, being exploited, or job loss. The number of households reporting problems with crime and community violence doubled between the two surveys. Disaster relief efforts had less impact on subjective long-term recovery than did job or income loss or housing repair difficulties. Existing sources of assistance were used more often than specific post-hurricane relief resources. The demographic make-up of a community may determine which are the most effective means to inform them after a disaster and what sources of assistance may be useful.     

The Ecological Future of the North American Bison: Conceiving Long-Term, Large-Scale Conservation of Wildlife

Abstract:  Many wide-ranging mammal species have experienced significant declines over the last 200 years; restoring these species will require long-term, large-scale recovery efforts. We highlight 5 attributes of a recent range-wide vision-setting exercise for ecological recovery of the North American bison ( Bison bison ) that are broadly applicable to other species and restoration targets. The result of the exercise, the "Vermejo Statement" on bison restoration, is explicitly (1) large scale, (2) long term, (3) inclusive, (4) fulfilling of different values, and (5) ambitious. It reads, in part, "Over the next century, the ecological recovery of the North American bison will occur when multiple large herds move freely across extensive landscapes within all major habitats of their historic range, interacting in ecologically significant ways with the fullest possible set of other native species, and inspiring, sustaining and connecting human cultures." We refined the vision into a scorecard that illustrates how individual bison herds can contribute to the vision. We also developed a set of maps and analyzed the current and potential future distributions of bison on the basis of expert assessment. Although more than 500,000 bison exist in North America today, we estimated they occupy <1% of their historical range and in no place express the full range of ecological and social values of previous times. By formulating an inclusive, affirmative, and specific vision through consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, we hope to provide a foundation for conservation of bison, and other wide-ranging species, over the next 100 years.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Ecosystem Services as a Common Language for Coastal Ecosystem-Based Management

Abstract:  Ecosystem-based management is logistically and politically challenging because ecosystems are inherently complex and management decisions affect a multitude of groups. Coastal ecosystems, which lie at the interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems and provide an array of ecosystem services to different groups, aptly illustrate these challenges. Successful ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystems requires incorporating scientific information and the knowledge and views of interested parties into the decision-making process. Estimating the provision of ecosystem services under alternative management schemes offers a systematic way to incorporate biogeophysical and socioeconomic information and the views of individuals and groups in the policy and management process. Employing ecosystem services as a common language to improve the process of ecosystem-based management presents both benefits and difficulties. Benefits include a transparent method for assessing trade-offs associated with management alternatives, a common set of facts and common currency on which to base negotiations, and improved communication among groups with competing interests or differing worldviews. Yet challenges to this approach remain, including predicting how human interventions will affect ecosystems, how such changes will affect the provision of ecosystem services, and how changes in service provision will affect the welfare of different groups in society. In a case study from Puget Sound, Washington, we illustrate the potential of applying ecosystem services as a common language for ecosystem-based management.