Klima wandel und Malaria

Goal and Scope

The coastal zones of Lower Saxony (Germany) are former malaria regions. Malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s, and subsequently related scientific investigations declined. But from that time until nowadays, the vector in the form of Anopheles mosquitoes has still been present in Lower Saxony. Thus, the question arises, whether a new autochthon transmission could take place due to the monthly mean temperatures of the recent years. Answering this question was one goal of the investigation at hand. Another one was to examine the spatial and temporal structure of potential transmissions in respect to the predicted increase of the air temperatures according to the IPCC scenarios.

Methods

Current information about anophelines and their characteristics within Germany, such as details on historical incidences, breeding preferences, longevity or distribution of the respective species, were collected by literature research. Further, measurement and incidence data had to be collected and processed: temperature values were provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), and recent findings of Anopheles were supplied by the former Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Ökologie (NLÖ) as a data bank. Then temperature maps were calculated for the three periods (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004) by means of Kriging. To model areas at risk, the transmission potential for a new vivax malaria spread in respect to temperature was computed using the Basic Reproduction Rate (R₀) formula. It provides the average number of secondary infections produced when a single infected individual is introduced into a potential host population in which each member is susceptible.

Results

The computations corroborate a climate warming between the 30-years interval from 1961 to 1990 and the period from 1985 to 2004. According to the rise of the air temperature as predicted by the IPCC scenarios, the spatial pattern of potential malaria outbreak was calculated for 2020, 2060 an 2100. To this end, for each of these years a best-case-scenario with the lowest reasonable temperature increases (+0.3°C, +0.9°C, +1.4°C) and a worst-case-scenario implying the highest plausible temperature rise (+0.9°C, +3.3°C, +5.8°C) were assumed. While in 2020 the maximum duration of the transmission risk is estimated to last four months, in 2100 the vivax transmission will be likely from May until October.

Discussion

Correlated with the higher monthly mean temperature values, the risk of a vivax transmission is increasing as temperature is the determining variable of the mathematical model. Therefore Lower Saxony is at risk of a new outbreak of vivax malaria assuming no other risk factors are of relevance.

Conclusions

The study could demonstrate that most parts of the country lie within a transmission zone with a duration of two months. The areas containing the highest risk with a transmission length of three months are located around Nordhorn and Hameln, and within the rectangle of Celle, Hannover, Helmstedt and Wolfsburg. These areas match with recent Anopheles larvae finding by the NLÖ, thus, only the pathogen is lacking for a successful transmission. And as Germany is not an endemic malaria zone, the pathogen can enter the country most likely by infected people or imported mosquitoes that transport it in their guts.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The results should be understood as a request for more comprehensive investigations in that field. This would be an essential basis for a successful risk monitoring and precautionary management. Although the chances of a new endemic malaria disease in Germany seem to be considerably low today, it would be better to be prepared than to be suddenly faced with the unexpected.     

Sterol production and phytosterol bioconversion in two species of heterotrophic protists, Oxyrrhis marina and Gyrodinium dominans

The kinetics and efficiency of sterol production and bioconversion of phytosterols in two heterotrophic protists Oxyrrhis marina and Gyrodinium dominans were examined by feeding them two different algal species (Rhodomonas salina and Dunaliella tertiolecta) differing in sterol profiles. R. salina contains predominantly brassicasterol (≅99%) and <2% cholesterol. The major sterols in D. tertiolecta are ergosterol (45–49%), 7-dehydroporiferasterol (29–31%) and fungisterol (21–26%). O. marina fed R. salina metabolized dietary brassicasterol to produce 22-dehydrocholesterol and cholesterol. O. marina fed D. tertiolecta metabolized dietary sterols to produce cholesterol, 22-dehydrocholesterol, brassicasterol and stigmasterol. G. dominans fed either R. salina or D. tertiolecta metabolized dietary sterols to make cholesterol, brassicasterol and a series of unknown sterols. When protists were fed R. salina, which contains cholesterol, the levels of cholesterol were increased to a magnitude of nearly 5- to 30-fold at the phytoplankton-heterotrophic protist interface, equivalent to a production of 172.5 ± 16.2 and 987.7 ± 377.7 ng cholesterol per mg R. salina carbon consumed by O. marina and G. dominans, respectively. When protists were fed D. tertiolecta, which contains no cholesterol, a net production of cholesterol by the protists ranged from 123.2 ± 30.6 to 871.8 ± 130.8 ng per mg algal C consumed. Cholesterol is not only the dominant sterol, but a critical precursor for many physiologically functional biochemicals in higher animal. As intermediates, these heterotrophic protists increase the amount of cholesterol at the phytoplankton–zooplankton interface available to higher trophic levels relative to zooplankton feeding on algae directly.     

Considering the positive possibilities of leader political behavior

This Incubator presents an overview of a new construct, leader political support, which captures the positive possibilities of leaders' political behavior. A discussion of why leader political support may seem paradoxical is included, as well as a presentation of the need for its consideration and the research possibilities it provides. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A causal analysis of the impact of job performance on the voluntary turnover process

A model of job turnover that includes job performance as a predictor was presented and tested longitudinally using path analysis. Out of seven hypothesized paths, six were significant and in the predicted direction. The seventh one was significant but in a direction opposite to that predicted.     

Comparison of maternal and fetal chromosome heteromorphisms to monitor maternal cell contamination in chorionic villus samples

Maternal cell contamination (MCC) presents a potential problem in the analysis of chorionic villus sampling (CVS) preparations for early prenatal diagnosis by chromosomal, biochemical and molecular methods. Through the comparison of fluorescent chromosome variants from CVS and maternal cells, we found three out of 50 samples to have MCC. One of these was observed on a direct preparation. Routine chromosome heteromorphism analysis suggested as a reliable method for monitoring MCC in CVS specimens.     

Coastal flooding in the Northeastern United States due to climate change

With dense population and development along its coastline, the northeastern United States is, at present, highly vulnerable to coastal flooding. At five sea level stations in the United States, from Massachusetts to New Jersey, sea level rise (SLR) trends and tidal effects were removed from the hourly sea level time series and then frequency analysis was performed on the positive remaining anomalies that represent storm surge heights. Then using eustatic SLR estimates for lower and higher greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and assumed trends in local sea level rise, new recurrence intervals were determined for future storm surges. Under the higher emissions scenario, by 2050, the elevation of the 2005 100-year event may be equaled or exceeded at least every 30 years at all sites. In more exposed US cities such as Boston, Massachusetts and Atlantic City, New Jersey, this could occur at the considerably higher frequency of every 8 years or less. Under the lower emissions scenario, by 2050, the elevation of the 2005 100-year event may be equaled or exceeded at least every 70 years at all sites. In Boston and Atlantic City, this could occur every 30 years or less.     

Escherichia coli,Species C Human Adenovirus,and Enterovirus in Water Samples Consumed in Rural Areas of Goiás,Brazil

Food and Environmental Virology - Rural environments lack basic sanitation services. Facilities for obtaining water and disposing sewage are often under the initiative of each resident, who may not...     

The estimation of influencing factors for carbon emissions based on EKC hypothesis and STIRPAT model: Evidence from top 10 countries

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Global climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions has observable impacts on environment. Among the GHG emissions, carbon dioxide is the primary...