Prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies: Estimates of screening performance based on 61 affected and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies

The aims of this study were to determine whether assumptions used in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies are valid and derive estimates of risk and screening performance in twin pregnancies using observed data. Data were collected on nuchal translucency, chorionicity, pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), and free ß human chorionic gonadotrophin (free ß-hCG) from 61 twin pregnancies with Down syndrome and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies. Distribution parameters were determined and used to estimate screening performance. The assumption that proportional differences in serum marker levels in affected and unaffected singleton pregnancies apply to twin pregnancies was not confirmed. Median free β-hCG value in monochorionic affected twin pregnancies (2.63 multiples of the median [MoM]; 95% CI, 1.79-3.22 MoM) was lower than that assuming proportionality (3.76 MoM), and the median PAPP-A value in dichorionic affected twin pregnancies (1.88 MoM; 95% CI, 1.60-2.17 MoM) was higher than that based on proportionality (1.33 MoM). The detection rate was 87% for a 3% false-positive rate in monochorionic twin pregnancies and 74% in dichorionic twin pregnancies compared with 86% in singleton pregnancies. Estimates of screening performance in Down syndrome twin pregnancies do not need to rely on assumptions and can take account of chorionicity and gestational age.     

Equity and sustainability over the next fifty years: An exercise in economic visioning

A simplistic aggregate model of global economic activity supports a 50-year visioning exercise with targets defined in terms of aggregate measures of global equity (convergence) and sustainability (contraction). Some ambitious combinations of these targets turn out to be infeasible even under the most favorable modeling assumptions. No contraction target (no reduction in fossil fuel consumption relative to the present) was possible, for example, if international capital transfers pushed per capita incomes in low-income countries above 33% of levels achieved in high-income countries. Lower prices for renewable alternatives to exhaustible resources generally made sustainability targets easier to achieve, but lower prices for renewable resources also made equity targets more difficult to achieve. Improved substitution between capital and labor made equity targets easier to achieve in relative terms, but improved substitution between capital and labor could make any given sustainability target more or less difficult to achieve. All the results suggest that it is possible to overstate the purported conflict between achieving sustainability and equity targets. The very transfers of international capital that would promote relative equity between high-income and low-income countries could also work to spread the incidence of achieving any sustainability target more evenly across their boundaries.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Diversity of swimming behavior in hydromedusae as related to feeding and utilization of space

Feeding behaviors of the following 4 species of hydromedusae are described from field and laboratory observations: Probosidactyla flavicirrata, Stomotoca atra, Phialidium gregarium and Polyorchis penicillatus. Feeding efficiency of medusae has previously been considered equivalent to fishing with a given amount (combined tentacle length) of adhesive fishing line; however, detailed observation shows that behavior of medusae greatly modifies the fishing capacity of each species. It is hypothesized that in addition to (1) tentacle number and length, the following factors strongly influence feeding efficiency: (2) tentacle posture, (3) velocity of tentacles moving through water (4) swimming pattern of medusa, (5) streamlining effects of medusa bell on water flow, (6) diameter of prey, (7) swimming pattern and velocity of prey. Each species of hydromedusa utilizes the above factors in different combinations.Mailing address     

Assessing the adaptive capacity of multi-level water governance: ecosystem services under climate change in Mälardalen region,Sweden

Regional Environmental Change - Adaptive and multi-level governance is often called for in order to improve the management of complex issues such as the provision of natural resources and ecosystem...     

Barriers and opportunities for adapting to climate change on the North Coast of São Paulo,Brazil

Regional Environmental Change - This paper examines barriers and opportunities for climate change adaptation in an urban coastal setting where adaptation is in its infancy. It draws on a diagnostic...     

When is an invasive not an invasive? Macrofossil evidence of doubtful native plant species in the Galápagos Islands

The Galápagos Islands are globally renowned for their ecological value and as a world symbol of scientific discovery; however the native biodiversity of this unique region is currently under threat. One of the primary concerns is the detrimental impact of approximately 750 nonnative plants introduced over the last 500 years of human presence in the archipelago. In addition to these known introduced species, there are an additional 62 vascular plants classified as "doubtful natives," where native status remains unclear. To help address the questions of provenance regarding these doubtfully native species and their impact on highland ecosystems over the past 500-1000 years, we analyzed plant macrofossils in sedimentary records. Appropriate species classification (native or introduced) was determined using baseline data of species presence on the islands. We confirmed that six plants (Ageratum conyzoides, Solanum americanum, Ranunculus flagelliformis, Brickellia diffusa, Galium canescens, and Anthephora hermaphrodita) once considered doubtful natives or introduced are actually native to the Galápagos flora. These results have relevance not just for the Galápagos but also many other oceanic islands in demonstrating the application of palaeobotanical data to conserving and restoring native biodiversity.     

Herbivores, tidal elevation, and species richness simultaneously mediate nitrate uptake by seaweed assemblages

In order for research into the consequences of biodiversity changes to be more applicable to real-world ecosystems, experiments must be conducted in the field, where a variety of factors other than diversity can affect the rates of key biogeochemical and physiological processes. Here, we experimentally evaluate the effects of two factors known to affect the diversity and composition of intertidal seaweed assemblages--tidal elevation and herbivory--on nitrate uptake by those assemblages. Based on surveys of community composition at the end of a 1.5-year press experiment, we found that both tide height and herbivores affected seaweed community structure. Not surprisingly, seaweed species richness was greater at lower tidal elevations. Herbivores did not affect richness, but they altered the types of species that were present; seaweed species characterized by higher rates of nitrate uptake were more abundant in herbivore-removal plots. Both tide height and herbivores affected nitrate uptake by seaweed assemblages. Individual seaweed species, as well as entire seaweed assemblages, living higher on the shore had greater rates of biomass-specific nitrate uptake, particularly at high ambient nitrate concentrations. Grazed seaweed assemblages exhibited reduced nitrate uptake, but only at low nitrate concentrations. We evaluated the effect of seaweed richness on nitrate uptake, both alone and after accounting for effects of tidal elevation and herbivores. When only richness was considered, we found no effect on uptake. However, when simultaneous effects of richness, tide height, and herbivores on uptake were evaluated, we found that all three had relatively large and comparable effects on nitrate uptake coefficients and that there was a negative relationship between seaweed richness and nitrate uptake. Particularly because effects of richness on uptake were not apparent unless the effects of tide height and herbivory were also considered, these results highlight the importance of considering the effects of environmental context when evaluating the consequences of biodiversity change in more realistic systems.     

A multiple additive regression tree analysis of three exposure measures during Hurricane Katrina

This paper analyses structural and personal exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Structural exposure is measured by flood height and building damage; personal exposure is measured by the locations of 911 calls made during the response. Using these variables, this paper characterises the geography of exposure and also demonstrates the utility of a robust analytical approach in understanding health‐related challenges to disadvantaged populations during recovery. Analysis is conducted using a contemporary statistical approach, a multiple additive regression tree (MART), which displays considerable improvement over traditional regression analysis. By using MART, the percentage of improvement in R‐squares over standard multiple linear regression ranges from about 62 to more than 100 per cent. The most revealing finding is the modelled verification that African Americans experienced disproportionate exposure in both structural and personal contexts. Given the impact of exposure to health outcomes, this finding has implications for understanding the long‐term health challenges facing this population.