Projected Changes in Discharge in an Agricultural Watershed in Iowa

Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world.     

Vehicle-Induced Lead and Cadmium Contamination of Roadside Soil and Plants in Italy

Lead and cadmium concentrations in spontaneous vegetation and in soil sampled at various distances (0–208 m) from several motorways throughout Italy were measured. Lead and cadmium concentrations appear to be correlated to distance from the motorway and to traffic levels. A comparison with data from a remote and unpolluted site shows that foliar lead concentrations can be up to 40 times higher, and foliar cadmium concentrations up to 3 times higher. Plants behave differently in their accumulation of lead and cadmium; conifers present the highest levels. Also the various receptors and compartments of the roadside ecosystem differ in their accumulation of lead and cadmium; soil and bark have consistently higher concentrations, while the leaves and twigs of trees have consistently lower levels. the data recorded by ad hoc introduced bio-accumulating plants (Lolium multiflorum L.) are consistent with those of the spontaneous vegetation. the concentrations of both lead and cadmium in Lolium vary from June to November, following in part the fluctuation in traffic density.     

Comparative studies on the concentrations of some elements in the urban air particulate matter in Lodz City of Poland and in Milan,Italy

Urban air particulate matter (APM) was collected at two sampling sites in the city of Lodz, Poland in March, May and July 2001. The concentrations of several trace elements (TEs) as well as heavy metals were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). It was found that for many elements, the contribution of the blank values arising from the filtering material is very high, especially for glass fiber filters. The results obtained for Lodz were compared to those obtained for Milan, Italy. The data of Lodz are, in general, lower than those found in Milan downtown in the winter season. The influence of three coal-fired power plants located within the city of Lodz on the concentration of trace elements in APM was also considered.     

Participatory Bayesian network modeling to understand driving factors of land-use change decisions: insights from two case studies in northeast Madagascar

ABSTRACT

Forest frontiers worldwide reveal trade-offs that are key in mitigating global change. In the forest frontiers of northeast Madagascar, land-use changes result from decisions made by smallholder farmers. In the past, subsistence needs led to increasing shifting cultivation, resulting in forest degradation and deforestation. This study focuses on investigating the role of locally determined factors in land-use change decisions in the forest frontier context. Therefore, we developed a Bayesian network-based land-use decision model that represents the causalities between factors influencing land-use decisions and takes into account local decision-makers’ knowledge. The approach is applied in two comparative case studies in northeast Madagascar. Results show that farmers mostly aim at extending the cultivation of cash crops. These results and the causal mechanisms disentangled for the forest frontier of northeast Madagascar help understand change mechanisms and hence, support decision-making to attain the Sustainable Development Goals.     

Crown condition surveys in Italian forests: issues in reporting findings

This study examines defoliation and discoloration findings collected throughout the Italian Level I network between 1997 and 2000. Prior to this period no Quality Assurance procedures had been implemented, so that earlier findings cannot be considered reliable. The aim of the study is to compare differentindices used in reporting findings, in order to determine the full potential and limitations of each. In international surveys,findings are normally expressed in terms of individual trees presenting a defoliation level greater than 2 %; this criterion,however, has been challenged since it is not based on scientificevidence. By analysing the distribution of defoliation values(grouped in 5% classes) relating to the main species (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus pubescens, Quercus cerris, Picea abies), the study examines the behaviour of statistical indices such as the median, the mode and the mean. Instead of using the traditional 25% threshold to determine the part of the population with the highest defoliation values, a procedureis suggested whereby a different threshold can be determined foreach species. It is established based on the 90° percentile of cumulative defoliation values recorded over the four-year period. Each index used to report findings possessesits own information potential, and the findings may at times appear contradictory. The use of a combined defoliation and discoloration index (Ilce = Lacking Crown Equivalent Index) is also proposed, but the results obtained do not differin substance from the results relating to defoliation alone. Thefunctional limitations of this index are due mainly to the way the data are collected: for this reason suggestions are made onhow to improve the procedure in future surveys.     

Occurrence of Cryptosporidium oocysts in sewage effluents and correlation with microbial,chemical and physical water variables

Contaminated water are recognized as a potential source of Cryptosporidium oocysts. In Italy studies on the environmentalspread of the parasite are still scarce even if a high frequencyof serological responses could suggest high rates of endemic Cryptosporidium infections. In this investigation theoccurrence of the parasite in water samples from a municipalwastewater treatment plant was monitored with the aim to evaluatepossible correlation between oocysts and bacterial indicators,pathogens and physico-chemical parameters using a multivariateanalysis. Data collected showed high numbers of oocysts, with ahigh percentage of positive samples and a significant correlationwith pH, redox potential and total organic carbon. No correlationwas found between Cryptosporidium concentration and that of the other microrganisms. The results, through a probing statistical analysis, show that none of the selected microrganisms was a reliable predictor of the presence of theparasite.     

Transport and modification of humic substances present in Antarctic snow and ancient ice

We performed a study of fulvic acids extracted from fresh and aged snow, and from recent and ancient ice in Antarctica. The fresh snow samples were collected in coastal and inland sites to evaluate the influence of the distance from the sea on organic matter transport. Moreover, in a site (Melbourne Mountain) samples were collected at different heights to study the influence of altitude on transport. The obtained results showed that dissolved fulvic acid concentrations are influenced neither by distance nor by height while particulate fulvic acid concentrations are influenced by both parameters. Moreover, the results showed that fulvic acids transported for a long distance can undergo chemical modifications. Chemical modifications are better evidenced by the analysis of samples taken in trenches at different depth, which showed structural changes attributable to the loss of nitrogen-containing compounds and to an increase in aromatic character of the structures due to reduction and/or condensation processes. With ageing, the humification process proceeds with heavy carbon losses as demonstrated by results obtained from fulvic acids isolated from ice aged between twenty-five thousand and seventy thousand years.     

Volatile organic compounds produced during the aerobic biological processing of municipal solid waste in a pilot plant

The volatile organic carbon (VOC) and odours emitted during the aerobic biological processing of municipal solid waste (MSW) was studied in a pilot-scale reactor. VOCs were detected by different techniques on solid waste samples and the outlet air stream, before and after a biofilter. Organic compounds (alpha-pinene, beta-myrcene, D-limonene) were also measured in condensate water and leachate from the process. Results showed uniformity in the composition of the air in the solid waste samples, air sampled during the process and condensed water, indicating a matrix-derived origin of these compounds. Leachates, however, contained substances with a quite different molecular structure from the compounds identified in the gaseous fraction. Most of the substances in the gaseous effluent had a hydrocarbon-like structure, mainly terpenoids. The odour produced and detected through olfactometry agreed with GC-MS analyses. This was true above all for terpenes.