A practical methodology for information fusion in presence of uncertainty: application to the analysis of a nuclear benchmark

This work is devoted to some methodological developments on information fusion in presence of uncertainty and their application in the frame of the BEMUSE Programme. In nuclear safety studies, different uncertainty analyses using different codes and implying different experts are generally performed. It is then useful to define formal methods to combine all these information sources in order to improve the reliability of the expertise process and especially to detect possible conflicts (if any) between the sources. Starting from the IRSN methodology already introduced in Destercke and Chojnacki (Nucl Eng Des 238(9):2484–2493, 2008), this paper presents a more convenient reformulation of its construction to allow its use by engineers. It is then applied to analyse the results coming from the BEMUSE Programme.     

Policy, personal dispositions and the evaluation of aircraft noise

In this paper, we hypothesize and test the ideas that (1) people’s subjectivity in relation to aircraft noise is shaped by the policy discourse, (2) this results in a limited number of frames towards aircraft noise, (3) the frames inform people how to think and feel about aircraft noise and (4) the distribution of the frames in the population is dependent on structural variables related to the individual. To reveal subjects’ frames of aircraft noise a latent class model is estimated based on survey data gathered among a sample of 250 residents living near Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, a major international airport in the Netherlands. In line with expectations, the results show that there are four evaluative frames of aircraft noise, three of which are strongly linked to the policy discourse. The frames are associated with fitting levels of annoyance response. In turn, frame membership is influenced by two structural variables, namely aircraft noise exposure and noise sensitivity. The results indicate that social factors operate discursively in the explanation of subjective reaction to noise, while psychological factors operate within a traditional cause-and-effect model. The paper concludes with several policy implications.     

Dry land tree management for improved household livelihoods: farmer managed natural regeneration in Niger

Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR), a set of practices farmers use to foster the growth of indigenous trees on agricultural land, has drawn substantial attention as a contributing factor to a trend of increasing vegetation greenness in the Republic of Niger. This paper identifies drivers of FMNR adoption and assesses its impacts on rural households in the Region of Maradi, Niger, an area covering 42,000 square kilometers. The results show that 26% of households practice a form of FMNR involving both pruning and protecting woody vegetation. Adoption is strongly linked to soil type, market access, and the education level of the head of household. FMNR raises household income and increases crop diversity, household migration rates, and the density and diversity of trees on farmland. It is estimated that FMNR raises the annual gross income of the region by between 17 and 21 million USD and has contributed an additional 900,000 to 1,000,000 trees to the local environment. These findings support the value of continued promotion of FMNR as an inexpensive means of enhancing rural livelihoods and an attractive alternative to reforestation efforts relying on tree planting.     

Controls on sediment delivery in coastal plain rivers

Rivers crossing coastal plains are often inefficient conveyors of sediment, so that changes in upstream sediment dynamics are not evident at the river mouth. Extensive accommodation space and low stream power often result in extensive alluvial storage upstream of estuaries and correspondingly low sediment loads at the river mouth. However, gaging stations with sediment records are typically well upstream of the coast, and thus tend to overestimate sediment yields by under-representing the lower coastal plain and because there is often a net loss of sediment in lower coastal plain reaches. Studies of alluvial sediment storage have generally focused on accommodation space, but, using examples from Texas, we show that low transport capacity controlled largely by slope is a crucial factor.     

Outreach Programs,Peer Pressure,and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.     

A GIS Approach to Prioritizing Habitat for Restoration Using Neotropical Migrant Songbird Criteria

Restoration efforts to increase wildlife habitat quality in agricultural landscapes have limited funding and are typically done on a first come, first serve basis. In order to increase the efficiency of these restoration efforts, a prioritized ranking system is needed to obtain the greatest increase in habitat quality possible for the fewest amount of hectares restored. This project examines the use of a GIS based multi-criteria approach to prioritize lands for reforestation along the Kaskaskia River in Illinois. Loss of forested area and corresponding increase in forest fragmentation has decreased songbird habitat quality across the Midwestern United States. We prioritized areas for reforestation based on nine landscape metrics: available agricultural land, forest cover gaps, edge density, proximity to river, 200 m corridor area, total forest core area, fringe core area, distance to primary core value, and primary core area. The multi-criteria analysis revealed that high priority areas for reforestation were most likely to be close to the riparian corridor and existing large blocks of forest. Analysis of simulated reforestation (0, 0.5, 1.0, 5.0 10.0, 25.0, and 50.0% of highest priority parcels reforested) revealed different responses for multiple landscape metrics used to quantify forest fragmentation following reforestation, but indicated that the study area would get the greatest rate of return on reforestation efforts by reforesting 10.0% of the highest priority areas. This project demonstrates how GIS and a multi-criteria analysis approach can be used to increase the efficiency of restoration projects. This approach should be considered by land managers when attempting to identify the location and quantity of area for restoration within a landscape.     

Are age-based licensing restrictions a meaningful way to enhance rural older driver safety? The need for exposure considerations in policy development

The stated and revealed travel behavior of a sample of 60 rural drivers aged 54-92 years provided a basis to explore the potential effectiveness of two common driver's license restrictions aimed at older drivers: time of day and road class. The potential utility and impact of these restrictions have not been explored with revealed data for jurisdictions with a large population of rural older drivers where automobile dependence is high. Data were drawn from a multiday Global Positioning System-based travel diary survey of rural older drivers in New Brunswick, Canada. Revealed travel data showed that over 50 percent of the rural drivers in the sample did not drive after dark, and 40 percent drove less than 1 percent of their total surveyed kilometers on major highways, higher rates than from participant-stated responses. The proportion of participants taking night trips and traveling on major highways decreased with age. The majority of trips taken after dark by all participants had a rural destination. The average daily kilometers driven on major highways by men and women aged 75 years and older was nearly identical (1.79 km/day). These exposure considerations suggest that restricting night travel and major highway travel for the oldest rural drivers (75 years and older) may have limited utility given that the majority of participants did not drive in these situations, and for those who did, most of their trips were in rural areas where enforcement could be expected to be limited. A better approach may be to encourage increased self-regulation through training, age-friendly upgrades to transportation infrastructure to help rural older drivers stay driving safely as long as possible, and the development of appropriate rural alternatives to help a driver transition to nondriver.     

Population genetic structure and genetic diversity of three critically endangered <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pristis</Emphasis> sawfishes in Australian waters

Northern Australia is considered to be one of the last strongholds for three critically endangered sawfishes, Pristis zijsron, Pristis clavata, and Pristis microdon, making these populations of global significance. Population structure and levels of genetic diversity were assessed for each species across northern Australia using a portion of the mitochondrial control region. Statistically significant genetic structure was detected in all three species, although it was higher in P. microdon (F _ST = 0.811; N = 149) than in either P. clavata (F _ST = 0.419; N = 73) or P. zijsron (F _ST = 0.202; N = 49), possibly due to a much higher and/or localized level of female philopatry in P. microdon. The overall levels of haplotype diversity in P. zijsron (h = 0.555), P. clavata (h = 0.489), and P. microdon (h = 0.650) were moderate, although it appears to be reduced in the assemblages of P. zijsron and P. clavata in the Gulf of Carpentaria (h = 0.342 and h = 0.083, respectively). Since female migration (replenishment) between regions is unlikely, conservation plans should strive to maintain current levels of diversity and abundances in the regional assemblages of each species.     

Plants as bio-monitors for Cs-137, Pu-238, Pu-239,240 and K-40 at the Savannah River Site

The Savannah River Site was constructed in South Carolina to produce plutonium (Pu) in the 1950s. Discharges associated with these now-ceased operations have contaminated large areas within the site, particularly streams associated with reactor cooling basins. Evaluating the exposure risk of contamination to an ecosystem requires methodologies that can assess the bioavailability of contaminants. Plants, as primary producers, represent an important mode of transfer of contaminants from soils and sediments into the food chain. The objective of this study was to identify local area plants for their ability to act as bio-monitors of radionuclides. The concentrations of cesium-137 ((137)Cs), potassium-40 ((40)K), (238)Pu and (239,240)Pu in plants and their associated soils were determined using γ and α spectrometry. The ratio of contamination concentration found in the plant relative to the soil was calculated to assess a concentration ratio (CR). The highest CR for (137)Cs was found in Pinus palustris needles (CR of 2.18). The correlation of soil and plant (137)Cs concentration was strong (0.76) and the R(2) (0.58) from the regression was significant (p = 0.006). This suggests the ability to predict the degree of (137)Cs contamination of a soil through analysis of the pine needles. The (238)Pu and (239,240)Pu concentrations were most elevated within the plant roots. Extremely high CR values were found in Sparganium americanum (bur-reed) roots with a value of 5.86 for (238)Pu and 5.66 for (239,240)Pu. The concentration of (40)K was measured as a known congener of (137)C. Comparing (40)K and (137)C concentrations in each plant revealed an inverse relationship for these radioisotopes. Correlating (40)K and (137)Cs was most effective in identifying plants that have a high affinity for (137)Cs uptake. The P. palustris and S. americanum proved to be particularly strong accumulators of all K congeners from the soil. Some species that were measured, warrant further investigation, are the carnivorous plant Utricularia inflata (bladderwort) and the emergent macrophyte Juncus effusus. For U. inflata, the levels of (137)Cs, (238)Pu, and (239,240)Pu (which were 3922, 8399, and 803 Bq kg(-1), respectively) in the leaves were extremely high. The highest (137)Cs concentration from the study was measured in the J. effusus root (5721 Bq kg(-1)).