The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Implications:?Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).     

Preparing to Measure the Effects of the NOx SIP Call— Methods for Ambient Air Monitoring of NO,NO2, NOy,and Individual NOz Species

Abstract

The capping of stationary source emissions of NO_x in 22 states and the District of Columbia is federally mandated by the NO_x SIP Call legislation with the intended purpose of reducing downwind O₃ concentrations. Monitors for NO, NO₂, and the reactive oxides of nitrogen into which these two compounds are converted will record data to evaluate air quality model (AQM) predictions. Guidelines for testing these models indicate the need for semicontinuous measurements as close to real time as possible but no less frequently than once per hour. The measurement uncertainty required for AQM testing must be less than ±20% (±10% for NO₂) at mixing ratios of 1 ppbv and higher for NO, individual NO_z component compounds, and NO_y. This article is a review and discussion of different monitoring methods, some currently used in research and others used for routine monitoring. The performance of these methods is compared with the monitoring guidelines. Recommendations for advancing speciated and total NO_y monitoring technology and a listing of demonstrated monitoring approaches are also presented.     

Comparison of the MOVES2010a,MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

The Desert Research Institute conducted an on-road mobile source emission study at a traffic tunnel in Van Nuys, California, in August 2010 to measure fleet-averaged, fuel-based emission factors. The study also included remote sensing device (RSD) measurements by the University of Denver of 13,000 vehicles near the tunnel. The tunnel and RSD fleet-averaged emission factors were compared in blind fashion with the corresponding modeled factors calculated by ENVIRON International Corporation using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) MOVES2010a (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) and MOBILE6.2 mobile source emission models, and California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) EMFAC2007 (EMission FACtors) emission model. With some exceptions, the fleet-averaged tunnel, RSD, and modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and oxide of nitrogen (NO_x) emission factors were in reasonable agreement (±25%). The nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emission factors (specifically the running evaporative emissions) predicted by MOVES were insensitive to ambient temperature as compared with the tunnel measurements and the MOBILE- and EMFAC-predicted emission factors, resulting in underestimation of the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios at higher ambient temperatures. Although predicted NMHC/NO_x ratios are in good agreement with the measured ratios during cooler sampling periods, the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios are 3.1, 1.7, and 1.4 times higher than those predicted by the MOVES, MOBILE, and EMFAC models, respectively, during high-temperature periods. Although the MOVES NO_x emission factors were generally higher than the measured factors, most differences were not significant considering the variations in the modeled factors using alternative vehicle operating cycles to represent the driving conditions in the tunnel. The three models predicted large differences in NO_x and particle emissions and in the relative contributions of diesel and gasoline vehicles to total NO_x and particulate carbon (TC) emissions in the tunnel.

Implications: Although advances have been made to mobile source emission models over the past two decades, the evidence that mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in urban areas were underestimated by as much as a factor of 2–3 in past inventories underscores the need for on-going verification of emission inventories. Results suggest that there is an overall increase in motor vehicle NMHC emissions on hot days that is not fully accounted for by the emission models. Hot temperatures and concomitant higher ratios of NMHC emissions relative to NO_x both contribute to more rapid and efficient formation of ozone. Also, the ability of EPA's MOVES model to simulate varying vehicle operating modes places increased importance on the choice of operating modes to evaluate project-level emissions.     

A Fast Gas Chromatographic Method for Measuring C2-C6 Alkanes and Alkenes in Air

The Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for establishing, reviewing, and revising standards of performance for new stationary sources of air pollution. Since this federal program was authorized in 1970, standards of performance (commonly referred to as new source performance standards or NSPS) have been developed for 34 categories of stationary sources. These regulations have focused primarily on large new sources of particulate matter, NO _x , and SO₂ emissions. Recently, work has begun on NSPS for a number of source categories that emit volatile organic compounds. Environmental professionals in these industries and in many regulatory agencies have little direct experience with the NSPS program and are unaware of the detailed engineering, cost, and economic information available with each proposed rulemaking. This article, therefore, reviews the purposes, procedures, and benefits of the NSPS program. A summary of the NSPS that have been promulgated through February 1983 are presented in tabular form.     

Hydrologic Landscape Characterization for the Pacific Northwest,USA

We update the Wigington et al. (2013) hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to make it more broadly applicable and apply the revised approach to the Pacific Northwest (PNW; i.e., Oregon, Washington, and Idaho). Specific changes incorporated are the use of assessment units based on National Hydrography Dataset Plus V2 catchments, a modified snowmelt model validated over a broader area, an aquifer permeability index that does not require preexisting aquifer permeability maps, and aquifer and soil permeability classes based on uniform criteria. Comparison of Oregon results for the revised and original approaches found fewer and larger assessment units, loss of summer seasonality, and changes in rankings and proportions of aquifer and soil permeability classes. Differences could be explained by three factors: an increased assessment unit size, a reduced number of permeability classes, and use of smaller cutoff values for the permeability classes. The distributions of the revised HLs in five groups of Oregon rivers were similar to the original HLs but less variable. The improvements reported here should allow the revised HL approach to be applied more often in situations requiring hydrologic classification and allow greater confidence in results. We also apply the map results to the development of hydrologic landscape regions.     

AERCOARE: An overwater meteorological preprocessor for AERMOD

AERCOARE is a meteorological data preprocessor for the American Meteorological Society and U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model (AERMOD). AERCOARE includes algorithms developed during the Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) to predict surface energy fluxes and stability from routine overwater measurements. The COARE algorithm is described and the implementation in AERCOARE is presented. Model performance for the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was evaluated against tracer measurements from four overwater field studies. Relatively better model performance was found when lateral turbulence measurements were available and when several key input variables to AERMOD were constrained. Namely, requiring the mixed layer height to be greater than 25 m and not allowing the Monin Obukhov length to be less than 5 m improved model performance in low wind speed stable conditions. Several options for low wind speed dispersion in AERMOD also affected the model performance results. Model performance for the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was found to be comparable to the current EPA regulatory Offshore Coastal Model (OCD) for the same tracer studies. AERCOARE-AERMOD predictions were also compared to simulations using the California Puff-Advection Model (CALPUFF) that also includes the COARE algorithm. Many model performance measures were found to be similar, but CALPUFF had significantly less scatter and better performance for one of the four field studies. For many offshore regulatory applications, the combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach was found to be a viable alternative to OCD the currently recommended model.

Implications: A new meteorological preprocessor called AERCOARE was developed for offshore source dispersion modeling using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory model AERMOD. The combined AERCOARE-AERMOD modeling approach allows stakeholders to use the same dispersion model for both offshore and onshore applications. This approach could replace current regulatory practices involving two completely different modeling systems. As improvements and features are added to the dispersion model component, AERMOD, such techniques can now also be applied to offshore air quality permitting.     

Degradation of anti-inflammatory drug ketoprofen by electro-oxidation: comparison of electro-Fenton and anodic oxidation processes

The electrochemical degradation of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug ketoprofen in tap water has been studied using electro-Fenton (EF) and anodic oxidation (AO) processes with platinium (Pt) and boron-doped diamond (BDD) anodes and carbon felt cathode. Fast degradation of the parent drug molecule and its degradation intermediates leading to complete mineralization was achieved by BDD/carbon felt, Pt/carbon felt, and AO with BDD anode. The obtained results showed that oxidative degradation rate of ketoprofen and mineralization of its aqueous solution increased by increasing applied current. Degradation kinetics fitted well to a pseudo-first-order reaction. Absolute rate constant of the oxidation of ketoprofen by electrochemically generated hydroxyl radicals was determined to be (2.8?±?0.1)?×?10⁹ M^?1 s^?1 by using competition kinetic method. Several reaction intermediates such as 3-hydroxybenzoic acid, pyrogallol, catechol, benzophenone, benzoic acid, and hydroquinone were identified by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analyses. The formation, identification, and evolution of short-chain aliphatic carboxylic acids like formic, acetic, oxalic, glycolic, and glyoxylic acids were monitored with ion exclusion chromatography. Based on the identified aromatic/cyclic intermediates and carboxylic acids as end products before mineralization, a plausible mineralization pathway was proposed. The evolution of the toxicity during treatments was also monitored using Microtox method, showing a faster detoxification with higher applied current values.