Assessing the parameterisation of the settling flux in a depth-integrated model of the fate of decaying and sinking particles, with application to fecal bacteria in the Scheldt Estuary

The fate of reactive tracers is often modelled by depth-averaged equations. When integrating the depth-resolved equations, it appears that the term describing the settling of particles is dependent on the concentration just above the bottom. Because in a depth-averaged framework this quantity is not available, the settling term needs to be parameterised. The most natural choice is to make the settling flux dependent on the average concentration. This approximation is acceptable if the water column is well mixed, but these conditions are not necessarily met in real applications. Therefore, this study aims at assessing and understanding the error made by using a depth-averaged model in a range of realistic conditions. For the definition of these conditions, typical values for the Scheldt Estuary and the Dutch-Belgian coast were taken. The realistic inspiration for the reactive tracer in this study is the fecal bacterium Escherichia coli, whose own dynamics are characterised by settling and gradual decay by mortality. In an attempt to understand the relative importance of several factors like settling, mortality, mixing and stratification on the error made by a depth-averaged approach, a number of simplified test cases were investigated. It follows that, as expected, the error is acceptable if the situation is mixing-dominated. However, the effect of mortality and stratification was less obvious in advance. For instance, it appeared that errors can also be significant if settling and mortality have the same characteristic timescales. Stratification often has the effect to increase the error made by the depth-averaged model.     

Transatlantic migration by post-breeding puffins: a strategy to exploit a temporarily abundant food resource?

The distribution of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) from Skellig Michael, south-west Ireland, was investigated using geolocation loggers between the 2010 and 2011 breeding seasons. All tracked birds travelled rapidly west into the North Atlantic at the end of the breeding season in August, with the majority undertaking transatlantic trips from Ireland to the Newfoundland-Labrador shelf. The furthest distance from the colony reached by each bird was not influenced by body mass or sex and was achieved in approximately 20 days. By October, all birds had moved back to the mid Atlantic where they remained resident until returning to the breeding colony. The most parsimonious explanation for the rapid, directed long-distance migration is that birds exploit the seasonally high abundance of prey [e.g., fish species such as capelin (Mallotus villosus) and sandlance (Ammodytes spp.)] off the Canadian coast, which is also utilised by large populations of North American seabirds at this time. Once the availability of this short-term prey resource has diminished, the tracked puffins moved back towards the north-east Atlantic. A relationship between relative abundance of puffins and zooplankton was found in all winter months, but after correcting for spatial autocorrelation, was only significant in November and January. Nevertheless, these results suggest a potential switch in diet from mainly fish during the breeding and early post-breeding periods to zooplankton over the remaining winter period. This study suggests that puffins from south-west Ireland have a long-distance migration strategy that is rare in breeding puffins from the UK and identifies a key non-breeding destination for puffins from Ireland. This has implications for the susceptibility of different breeding populations to the effects of possible climatic or oceanographic change.     

Effects of ocean acidification, temperature and nutrient regimes on the appendicularian Oikopleura dioica: a mesocosm study

Increasing pCO₂ is hypothesized to induce shifts in plankton communities toward smaller cells, reduced carbon export rates and increased roles of gelatinous zooplankton. Appendicularians, among the most numerous pan-global “gelatinous” zooplankton, continuously produce filter-feeding houses, shortcutting marine food webs by ingesting submicron particles, and their discarded houses contribute significantly to carbon fluxes. We present a first mesocosm-scale study on the effects of temperature, pCO₂ and bloom structures on the appendicularian, Oikopleura dioica. There were effects of temperature and nutrients on phytoplankton communities. No shifts in functional phytoplankton groups, nor changes in particle sizes/morphotypes, known to impact appendicularian feeding, were observed under manipulated pCO₂ conditions. However, appendicularian abundance was positively correlated with increased pCO₂, temperature and nutrient levels, consistent with hypotheses concerning gelatinous zooplankton in future oceans. This suggests appendicularians will play more important roles in marine pelagic communities and vertical carbon transport under projected ocean acidification and elevated temperature scenarios.     

A critique of the official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center: continued doubts

This paper criticises the conclusions and the unanswered questions in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)'s official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center in New York City, United States, on 11 September 2001. It reviews the extent to which the report disregards several conventional statistical methods and comments on the NIST's refusal to share the machine‐readable data file with the scientific community for replication and further analysis. Problems lie in the sampling methods employed, the treatment of missing data, the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) with binary dependent variables, the failure to document the scalability of the scales used, the lack of tests to check for constant error variance, and the absence of overall fit tests of the model. There are also conceptual and theoretical issues, such as the absence in the report of considerations of the influence of group‐level processes and their impact on the collective behaviour of evacuating collectivities.     

Multiple predators indirectly alter community assembly across ecological boundaries

Models of habitat selection often assume that organisms choose habitats based on their intrinsic quality, regardless of the position of these habitats relative to low-quality habitats in the landscape. We created a habitat matrix in which high-quality (predator-free) aquatic habitat patches were positioned adjacent to (predator-associated) or isolated from (control) patches with single or two species of caged predators. After 16 days of colonization, larval insect abundance was reduced by 50% on average in both the predator and predator-associated treatments relative to isolated controls. Effects were largely similar among predator treatments despite variation in number of predator species, predator biomass, and whether predators were native or nonnative. Importantly, the strength of effects did not depend on whether predators were physically present. These results demonstrate that predator cues can cascade with equal strength across ecological boundaries, indirectly altering community assembly via habitat selection in intrinsically high-quality habitats.     

Biophysical feedback mediates effects of invasive grasses on coastal dune shape

Vegetation at the aquatic-terrestrial interface can alter landscape features through its growth and interactions with sediment and fluids. Even similar species may impart different effects due to variation in their interactions and feedbacks with the environment. Consequently, replacement of one engineering species by another can cause significant change in the physical environment. Here we investigate the species-specific ecological mechanisms influencing the geomorphology of U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal dunes. Over the last century, this system changed from open, shifting sand dunes with sparse vegetation (including native beach grass, Elymus mollis), to densely vegetated continuous foredune ridges resulting from the introduction and subsequent invasions of two nonnative grass species (Ammophila arenaria and Ammophila breviligulata), each of which is associated with different dune shapes and sediment supply rates along the coast. Here we propose a biophysical feedback responsible for differences in dune shape, and we investigate two, non-mutually exclusive ecological mechanisms for these differences: (1) species differ in their ability to capture sand and (2) species differ in their growth habit in response to sand deposition. To investigate sand capture, we used a moveable bed wind tunnel experiment and found that increasing tiller density increased sand capture efficiency and that, under different experimental densities, the native grass had higher sand capture efficiency compared to the Ammophila congeners. However, the greater densities of nonnative grasses under field conditions suggest that they have greater potential to capture more sand overall. We used a mesocosm experiment to look at plant growth responses to sand deposition and found that, in response to increasing sand supply rates, A. arenaria produced higher-density vertical tillers (characteristic of higher sand capture efficiency), while A. breviligulata and E. mollis responded with lower-density lateral tiller growth (characteristic of lower sand capture efficiency). Combined, these experiments provide evidence for a species-specific effect on coastal dune shape. Understanding how dominant ecosystem engineers, especially nonnative ones, differ in their interactions with abiotic factors is necessary to better parameterize coastal vulnerability models and inform management practices related to both coastal protection ecosystem services and ecosystem restoration.     

Neighborhood and habitat effects on vital rates: expansion of the Barred Owl in the Oregon coast ranges

In this paper, we modify dynamic occupancy models developed for detection-nondetection data to allow for the dependence of local vital rates on neighborhood occupancy, where neighborhood is defined very flexibly. Such dependence of occupancy dynamics on the status of a relevant neighborhood is pervasive, yet frequently ignored. Our framework permits joint inference about the importance of neighborhood effects and habitat covariates in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our specific motivation is the recent expansion of the Barred Owl (Strix varia) in western Oregon, USA, over the period 1990-2010. Because the focal period was one of dramatic range expansion and local population increase, the use of models that incorporate regional occupancy (sources of colonists) as determinants of dynamic rate parameters is especially appropriate. We began our analysis of 21 years of Barred Owl presence/nondetection data in the Tyee Density Study Area (TDSA) by testing a suite of six models that varied only in the covariates included in the modeling of detection probability. We then tested whether models that used regional occupancy as a covariate for colonization and extinction outperformed models with constant or year-specific colonization or extinction rates. Finally we tested whether habitat covariates improved the AIC of our models, focusing on which habitat covariates performed best, and whether the signs of habitat effects are consistent with a priori hypotheses. We conclude that all covariates used to model detection probability lead to improved AIC, that regional occupancy influences colonization and extinction rates, and that habitat plays an important role in determining extinction and colonization rates. As occupancy increases from low levels toward equilibrium, colonization increases and extinction decreases, presumably because there are more and more dispersing juveniles. While both rates are affected, colonization increases more than extinction decreases. Colonization is higher and extinction is lower in survey polygons with more riparian forest. The effects of riparian forest on extinction rates are greater than on colonization rates. Model results have implications for management of the invading Barred Owl, both through habitat alteration and removal.     

Population dynamics and control of invasive Spartina alterniflora: inference and forecasting under uncertainty

Managing invaded ecosystems entails making decisions about control strategies in the face of scientific uncertainty and ecological stochasticity. Statistical tools such as model selection and Bayesian decision analysis can guide decision-making by estimating probabilities of outcomes under alternative management scenarios, but these tools have seldom been applied in invasion ecology. We illustrate the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in a case study of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) invading Willapa Bay, Washington. To address uncertainty in model structure, we quantified the weight of evidence for two previously proposed hypotheses, that S. alterniflora recruitment varies with climatic conditions (represented by sea surface temperature) and that recruitment is subject to an Allee effect due to pollen limitation. By fitting models to time series data, we found strong support for climate effects, with higher per capita seedling production in warmer years, but no evidence for an Allee effect based on either the total area invaded or the mean distance between neighboring clones. We used the best-supported model to compare alternative control strategies, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and population dynamics. For a fixed annual removal effort, the probability of eradication in 10 years was highest, and final invaded area lowest, if removals targeted the smallest clones rather than the largest or randomly selected clones. The relationship between removal effort and probability of eradication was highly nonlinear, with a sharp threshold separating -0% and -100% probability of success, and this threshold was 95% lower in simulations beginning early rather than late in the invasion. This advantage of a rapid response strategy is due to density-dependent population growth, which produces alternative stable equilibria depending on the initial invasion size when control begins. Our approach could be applied to a wide range of invasive species management problems where appropriate data are available.     

Effects of controller-pilot communication medium,flight phase and the role in the cockpit on pilots’ workload and situation awareness

This study explores the effects of communication medium, flight phase, and the role in the cockpit on pilots’ workload and situation awareness. Eight pilots with the experience of Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLCs) participated in this simulated experiment. Two types of communication medium (voice and datalink), three types of flight phase (departure, cruise, and arrival), and two types of role (pilot flying and pilot non-flying) were investigated in the experiment. The results indicated that flight phase is a significant factor and cruise is the most suitable phase for datalink use on pilots’ acceptance, workload, and situation awareness performance. Both medium and role were not the significant factors. Since there is no significant difference on medium when no extra tasks and interferences involved in a normal flight, that the use of CPDLC can be justified during all phases of a no-event flight. In addition, the results of usability indicated that the simulated CPDLC with command selection functions proposed in this study provides good utility for the participants. In order to use the CPDLC for all phases of flight in the future, adding more command selection functions in place of typing messages by pilots and accommodating appropriate interfaces for different phases are recommended to enhance the usability of the CPDLC unit.