A WATER POLICY-LAND USE COMPUTER SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the philosophy, algorithms, and implementation of a computer-oriented land use forecasting-water policy simulation model. The model is applicable to SMSA's organized on a census tract basis by counties. The forecasts are macro to the census tract level for industrial, residential, commercial and public land uses, and are dynamically altered by hypothesized water management policies. Modeling is based on an economic data base of the region, and is extremely flexible for the user. An example set of simulations is included for illustrative purposes.     

Modelling the global heat balance

A previous model of the global heat balance has been expanded by including the influence of SO₂ pollution, water content of the atmosphere and cloudiness. It was found that the previous results were not changed significantly by this expansion of the model. The conclusions set up uising the previous model were still valid: (1) it is great importance to include the buffer capacity of the sea, including its dependence on pH and the temperature; (2) it is of importance to include natural climatic variations; (3) the dominanting factor is the trend in the consumption of fossil fuel.     

Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.     

Enantiomeric separation of metolachlor and its metabolites using LC-MS and CZE

The stereoisomers of metolachlor and its two polar metabolites [ethane sulfonic acid (ESA) and oxanilic acid (OXA)] were separated using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE), respectively. The separation of metolachlor enantiomers was achieved using a LC-MS equipped with a chiral stationary phase based on cellulose tris(3,5-dimethylphenyl carbamate) and an atmospheric pressure chemical ionization source operated under positive ion mode. The enantiomers of ESA and OXA were separated using CZE with gamma-cyclodextrin (gamma-CD) as chiral selector. Various CZE conditions were investigated to achieve the best resolution of the ESA and OXA enantiomers. The optimum background CZE electrolyte was found to consist of borate buffer (pH=9) containing 20% methanol (v/v) and 2.5% gamma-CD (w/v). Maximum resolution of ESA and OXA enantiomers was achieved using a capillary temperature of 15 degrees C and applied voltage of 30 kV. The applicability of the LC-MS and CZE methods was demonstrated successfully on the enantiomeric analysis of metolachlor and its metabolites in samples from a soil and water degradation study that was set up to probe the stereoselectivity of metolachlor biodegradation. These techniques allow the enantiomeric ratios of the target analytes to be followed over time during the degradation process and thus will prove useful in determining the role of chirality in pesticide degradation and metabolite formation.     

Biological assessment of bisphenol A degradation in water following direct photolysis and UV advanced oxidation

Endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) are exogenous environmental chemicals that can interfere with normal hormone function and present a potential threat to both environmental and human health. The fate, distribution and degradation of EDCs is a subject of considerable investigation. To date, several studies have demonstrated that conventional water treatment processes are ineffective for removal of most EDCs and in some instances produce multiple unknown transformation products. In this study we have investigated the use of direct photolysis with low-pressure (LP) Hg UV lamps and UV+hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) advanced oxidation process (AOP) for the degradation of a prototypic endocrine disrupter, bisphenol A (BPA), in laboratory water. Removal rates of BPA and formation of degradation products were determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. Changes in estrogenic activity were evaluated using both in vitro yeast estrogen screen (YES) and in vivo vitellogenin (VTG) assays with Japanese medaka fish (Oryzias latipes). Our results demonstrate that UV alone did not effectively degrade BPA. However, UV in combination with H(2)O(2) significantly removed BPA parent compound and aqueous estrogenic activity in vitro and in vivo. Removal rates of in vivo estrogenic activity were significantly lower than those observed in vitro, demonstrating differential sensitivities of these bioassays and that certain UV/AOP metabolites may retain estrogenic activity. Furthermore, the UV/H(2)O(2) AOP was effective for reducing larval lethality in treated BPA solutions, suggesting BPA degradation occurred and that the degradation process did not result in the production of acutely toxic intermediates.