Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

Effects of learning and adaptation on population viability

Cultural adaptation is one means by which conservationists may help populations adapt to threats. A learned behavior may protect an individual from a threat, and the behavior can be transmitted horizontally (within generations) and vertically (between generations), rapidly conferring population-level protection. Although possible in theory, it remains unclear whether such manipulations work in a conservation setting; what conditions are required for them to work; and how they might affect the evolutionary process. We examined models in which a population can adapt through both genetic and cultural mechanisms. Our work was motivated by the invasion of highly toxic cane toads (Rhinella marina) across northern Australia and the resultant declines of endangered northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus), which attack and are fatally poisoned by the toxic toads. We examined whether a novel management strategy in which wild quolls are trained to avoid toads can reduce extinction probability. We used a simulation model tailored to quoll life history. Within simulations, individuals were trained and a continuous evolving trait determined innate tendency to attack toads. We applied this model in a population viability setting. The strategy reduced extinction probability only when heritability of innate aversion was low (<20%) and when trained mothers trained >70% of their young to avoid toads. When these conditions were met, genetic adaptation was slower, but rapid cultural adaptation kept the population extant while genetic adaptation was completed. To gain insight into the evolutionary dynamics (in which we saw a transitory peak in cultural adaptation over time), we also developed a simple analytical model of evolutionary dynamics. This model showed that the strength of natural selection declined as the cultural transmission rate increased and that adaptation proceeded only when the rate of cultural transmission was below a critical value determined by the relative levels of protection conferred by genetic versus cultural mechanisms. Together, our models showed that cultural adaptation can play a powerful role in preventing extinction, but that rates of cultural transmission need to be high for this to occur.     

An Age-Structured Demographic Model for the Endangered Stephens' Kangaroo Rat

Effective conservation of endangered species often is hampered by inadequate knowledge of demography. We extracted information on survival and fecundity from an 18-month, live-trapping study of Dipodomys stephensi , and from this we developed an age-structured demographic model to assess population viability. Adult Stephens' kangaroo rats persisted longer than juveniles, and adult females persisted longer than adult males. Disappearance rates were high in the first months after initial capture. Thereafter, the fraction of animals persisting decreased slowly and in an approximately linear fashion on a semilogarithmic scale, suggesting age-independent mortality factors such as predation. Juvenile persistence did not differ substantially between two years of strikingly different rainfall. Onset of breeding followed the start of winter rains. Length of the breeding season, average number of litters per female, and the fraction of first-year females breeding were much greater in the year of higher rainfall. We propose a birth-pulse demographic model for D. stephensi that distinguishes juvenile and adult age classes. Temporal environmental variation can be modeled adequately with a constant survivorship schedule and variable fecundity determined by yearly precipitation. Several issues should be resolved, however, before conservation decisions are based on the model. Better estimates of juvenile survivorship are critical, the quantitative relationship between precipitation and fecundity must be determined, and the potential for density dependence and source-sink population dynamics must be evaluated.     

Effect of the hard clam Mercenaria mercenaria on benthic fluxes of inorganic nutrients and gases

The effect of the hard clam Mercenaria mercenaria (L.) on the exchange of dissolved nutrients (silicate, phosphate, ammonium, nitrate+nitrite) and gases (oxygen, carbon dioxide) across the sediment-water interface was examined in 1983 and 1984 using experimental mesocosms (13 m³), designed to simulate a shallow coastal ecosystem, that allow for reciprocal biogeochemical interactions between water column (5 m) and bottom sediments (30 cm deep). Benthic, fluxes, measured during a spring-summer warming period, were compared for mesocosms maintained either with added M. mercenaria (16 per m², treatment) or without M. mercenaria (control) as a component of the benthic community. Fluxes were within the range observed for the (control) community in situ in mid-Narragansett Bay and exhibited the pattern of increasing flux with increasing temperature observed in nature. For dissolved inorganic (DIN=ammonia+nitrate+nitrite), analytical problems allowed comparison of fluxes only at the higher temperatures (17° to 22°C); average DIN fluxes were 57% higher in mesocosms with clams. Fluxes of other nutrients and gases were modelled as exponential functions of temperature (9° to 22°C) using a linear regression of the natural logarithm of flux upon temperature in both treatment and control situations. Differences between regression slopes and intercepts for conditions with and without clams were assessed by analysis of covariance. Slopes of the linearized temperature-flux relationships were not significantly different between treatments for any flux measured, suggesting that presence of the clams did not alter the basic relationship of flux and temperature normally observed with this community. For oxygen consumption and silicate production, the regression intercepts were significantly higher in the clam treatment, suggesting that the level of flux was generally elevated in the presence of M. mercenaria by about 20% (oxygen) and 86% (silicate) at any given temperature. Data for carbon dioxide and phosphate showed similar trends to oxygen and silicate, but the variance in fluxes was larger and regression intercepts for the two treatments were not significantly different.     

The hunting strategy of white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) near a seal colony

The degree to which white sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, are social while hunting is unclear. Our aim was to describe the behavior and interactions among white sharks hunting seals near a seal colony. We attached ultrasonic beacons to five adult white sharks, 4.5–5.2?m long, and recorded their movements and behavior toward each other over a 15-day period in October 1997 at Año Nuevo Island, California. This site is home to colonies of four species of seals and sea lions. Two additional sharks, females 5.5 and 4.7?m in length, were later tracked intensively during periods of 12 and 3?days during October 1998 and November 1999, respectively. We recorded stomach temperature (indicative of feeding on warm-bodied seals) and swimming depths from the 5.5-m female, swimming speed and depth from the 4.7-m female. We monitored the movements and behavior of these sharks using an array of sonobuoys moored near the island; the receptive field measured 1?km². Our principal findings were: (1) the sharks spent a mean time of 39.5% of each day patrolling within the receptive field; (2) no shark ever moved far out of it; (3) the sharks spent an equal amount of time and activity in the receptive field at all times of the day, daytime, twilight, and nighttime; (4) movements with respect to the island rookery were most often back and forth parallel to the shoreline, (5) tracks of three sharks, tagged at the same time and place, overlapped more often than those of the other two sharks; and (6) some sharks patrolled certain areas in the field preferentially, but there was no conclusive evidence that they defended these areas as territories. Feeding appeared to be infrequent: only two likely feeding bouts occurred during a cumulative 78-day/shark period that individuals were monitored at Año Nuevo Island. The behavior and movements of the sharks were consistent with a hunting strategy, in which individuals search for prey independently but, at the same time, remain close enough to each other to “sense” and exploit a kill by any one of them by joining in on the kill to feed.     

Components of variance in male lifetime copulatory and reproductive success in a seed bug

Summary Males and females of the seed bug, Neacoryphus bicrucis Say, were individually numbered in the field in southeastern Georgia (USA) and census taken daily for 6 weeks. Variation in male mating efficiency (ME = no. copulations/no. sightings) exceeded that in females and was significantly greater than that generated by a null model. Lifetime copulatory success, estimated as the product of ME and longevity, ranged from 0 to 41, with ME accounting for over 88% of the variation. Lifetime reproductive success (LRS), estimated as the product of ME, longevity, and clutch size, ranged from 0 to 898. Among males copulating at least once, ME accounted for over 40% of the variation in LRS, while longevity alone or in combination with clutch size accounted for 21% and 46%, respectively, of the variation in LRS. Failure of some males (26%) to copulate contributed 38% of the total variation in LRS. Thus, among males surviving to adulthood, sexual selection pressure arising from variation in ME is approximately as strong a force for phenotypic change as is natural selection pressure arising from variation in longevity.     

Bioconcentration of nonylphenol in fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas)

Bioconcentration of p-nonylphenol (NP) by fathead minnows was determined under laboratory conditions. Fish were exposed continuously for 42 days to 0.33, 0.93 and 2.36 μgNP/l in a flow-through system. NP was Soxhlet extracted from whole fish homogenates with dichloromethane (DCM). The resulting extract was concentrated and bulk lipids removed by gel permeation and silica-gel chromatography. Compounds were identified and quantified by reverse-phase high-pressure liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) with fluorescence detection. Mass spectrometry was used for verification of peak assignments. Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) ranged from 245 to 380.     

An evaluation of the tapered element oscillating microbalance method for measuring diesel particulate emissions

We determined the usefulness of tapered element oscillating microbalances (TEOMs) for researchers and engineers involved with measuring diesel particulate mass. Two different test facilities were used for generating diesel particulates and comparing the TEOM to the commonly used U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) manual filter method. The EPA method is very labor-intensive and requires long periods of time to complete. The TEOM is an attractive approach because it has the potential to reduce the amount of time and labor required in diesel testing, as well as to provide real-time particulate-mass data that are not obtainable with the EPA method. It was found that the TEOM was a precise and easy-to-operate instrument that could measure the mass concentration (MC) of diesel particulate emissions in real time. Although the TEOM diesel particulate MC measurements were highly correlated with the manual filter measurements, the two techniques were not equivalent because the TEOM consistently reported MC results that were 20-25% lower than those obtained using the manual filter technique. In conclusion, the TEOM can be used to increase test-cell throughput and to measure transient values of diesel particulate emissions at sites performing diesel-engine testing. However, unless EPA is able to certify the TEOM as an equivalent method, it cannot replace the manual filter method for diesel certification work.     

Community resilience,land degradation and endogenous lock-in effects: evidence from the Alento region,Campania, Italy

This study analyses social, economic and political “lock-ins” for understanding community resilience and land degradation. The study focuses on lock-ins from within communities, using four case study communities in Italy affected by land degradation. The analysis highlights the complex interrelationships between various lock-ins, and suggests that the communities are on declining resilience pathways that may lead to increasing difficulties in addressing land degradation issues in future.     

Spatial analysis of a large magnitude erosion event following a Sierran wildfire

High intensity wildfire due to long-term fire suppression and heavy fuels buildup can render watersheds highly susceptible to wind and water erosion. The 2002 "Gondola" wildfire, located just southeast of Lake Tahoe, NV-CA, was followed 2 wk later by a severe hail and rainfall event that deposited 7.6 to 15.2 mm of precipitation over a 3 to 5 h time period. This resulted in a substantive upland ash and sediment flow with subsequent down-gradient riparian zone deposition. Point measurements and ESRI ArcView were applied to spatially assess source area contributions and the extent of ash and sediment flow deposition in the riparian zone. A deposition mass of 380 Mg of ash and sediment over 0.82 ha and pre-wildfire surface bulk density measurements were used in conjunction with two source area assessments to generate an estimation of 10.1 mm as the average depth of surface material eroded from the upland source area. Compared to previous measurements of erosion during rainfall simulation studies, the erosion of 1800 to 6700 g m(-2) mm(-1) determined from this study was as much as four orders of magnitude larger. Wildfire, followed by the single event documented in this investigation, enhanced soil water repellency and contributed 17 to 67% of the reported 15 to 60 mm ky(-1) of non-glacial, baseline erosion rates occurring in mountainous, granitic terrain sites in the Sierra Nevada. High fuel loads now common to the Lake Tahoe Basin increase the risk that similar erosion events will become more commonplace, potentially contributing to the accelerated degradation of Lake Tahoe's water clarity.