Climate Policy to Defeat the Green Paradox

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO₂ emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of ‘backfiring’ and actually increasing CO₂ emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.     

Identification of microcystins from three collection strains of Microcystis aeruginosa

Microcystins (MCs) are toxic cyclic heptapeptides produced by various cyanobacteria genera, especially Microcystis. We identified 10 out of 12 MCs produced by three Microcystis aeruginosa strains from cyanobacteria collections, UTEX 2666, UTEX 2670 and UAM 1303, by using two analytical methods: Matrix-assisted Laser Desorption Ionization Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-TOF/MS) and HPLC Photodiode Array Detector coupled to a hybrid Quadrupole Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (HPLC-PDA-QTOF/MS). MALDI-TOF/MS failed to detect non-polar MCs, such as MC-LY and MC-LW. HPLC-QTOF/MS permitted the accurate identification of most MCs present in methanolic extracts. Besides, three new MCs, namely: [D-Glu(OCH₃)⁶, D-Asp³] MC-LAba, MC-YL and MC-YM were detected by HPLC-QTOF/MS.     

The influence of gill and liver metabolism on the predicted bioconcentration of three pharmaceuticals in fish

The potential for xenobiotic compounds to bioconcentrate is typically expressed through the bioconcentration factor (BCF), which has gained increased regulatory significance over the past decade. Due to the expense of in vivo bioconcentration studies and the growing regulatory need to assess bioconcentration potential, BCF is often calculated via single-compartment models, using K(OW) as the primary input. Recent efforts to refine BCF models have focused on physiological factors, including the ability of the organism to eliminate the compound through metabolic transformation. This study looks at the ability of in vitro biotransformation assays using S9 fractions to provide an indication of metabolic potential. Given the importance of the fish gill and liver in metabolic transformation, the metabolic loss of ibuprofen, norethindrone and propranolol was measured using rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) gill and liver S9 fractions. Metabolic transformation rates (k(M)) were calculated and integrated into a refined BCF model. A significant difference was noted between BCF solely based on K(OW) and BCF including k(M). These studies indicate that the inclusion of k(M) in BCF models can bring predicted bioconcentration estimates closer to in vivo values.     

Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO(2) taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO(2) measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO(2) levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.     

Will photosynthetic capacity of aspen trees acclimate after long-term exposure to elevated CO2 and O3?

Photosynthetic acclimation under elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and/or ozone (O₃) has been the topic of discussion in many papers recently. We examined whether or not aspen plants grown under elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ will acclimate after 11 years of exposure at the Aspen Face site in Rhinelander, WI, USA. We studied diurnal patterns of instantaneous photosynthetic measurements as well as A/C_i measurements monthly during the 2004-2008 growing seasons. Our results suggest that the responses of two aspen clones differing in O₃ sensitivity showed no evidence of photosynthetic and stomatal acclimation under either elevated CO₂, O₃ or CO₂ + O₃. Both clones 42E and 271 did not show photosynthetic nor stomatal acclimation under elevated CO₂ and O₃ after a decade of exposure. We found that the degree of increase or decrease in the photosynthesis and stomatal conductance varied significantly from day to day and from one season to another.     

Chemical fluxes in time through forest ecosystems in the UK - Soil response to pollution recovery

Long term trend analysis of bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution elemental fluxes from 12 years monitoring at 10 ICP Level II forest sites in the UK reveal coherent national chemical trends indicating recovery from sulphur deposition and acidification. Soil solution pH increased and sulphate and aluminium decreased at most sites. Trends in nitrogen were variable and dependant on its form. Dissolved organic nitrogen increased in bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution at most sites. Nitrate in soil solution declined at sites receiving high nitrogen deposition. Increase in soil dissolved organic carbon was detected - a response to pollution recovery, changes in soil temperature and/or increased microbial activity. An increase of sodium and chloride was evident - a possible result of more frequent storm events at exposed sites. The intensive and integrated nature of monitoring enables the relationships between climate/pollutant exposure and chemical/biological response in forestry to be explored.     

Global scale emission and distribution of sea-spray aerosol: Sea-salt and organic enrichment

The chemical composition of marine aerosols as a function of their size is an important parameter for the evaluation of their impact on the global climate system. In this work we model fine particle organic matter emitted by sea spray processes and its influence on the aerosol chemical properties at the global scale using the off-line global Chemistry-Transport Model TM5. TM5 is coupled to a microphysical aerosol dynamics model providing size resolved information on particle masses and numbers. The mass of the emitted sea spray particles is partitioned between water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) and sea salt components in the accumulation mode using a function that relates the emitted organic fraction to the surface ocean chlorophyll-a concentrations. The global emission in the sub-micron size range of organic matter by sea spray process is 8.2 Tg yr^?1, compared to 24 Tg fine yr^?1 sea-salt emissions. When the marine sources are included, the concentrations of modelled primary particulate organic matter (POM) increase mainly over the oceans. The model predictions of WIOM and sea salt are evaluated against measurements carried out at Mace Head (Northern Hemisphere) and Amsterdam Island (Southern Hemisphere), showing that in clean marine conditions WIOM marine emissions contribute significantly to POM values.     

Modeling the surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia

New parameterizations for surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia are presented for application in atmospheric transport models and compared with parameterizations of the literature. The new parameterizations are based on a combination of the results of three years of ammonia flux measurements over a grassland canopy (dominated by Lolium perenne and Poa trivialis) near Wageningen, the Netherlands and existing parameterizations from literature. First, a model for the surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia that includes the concentration at the external leaf surface is derived and validated. Second, a parameterization for the stomatal compensation point (expressed as Γ_s, the ratio of [NH₄⁺]/[H⁺] in the leaf apoplast) that accounts for the observed seasonal variation is derived from the measurements. The new, temperature-dependent Γ_s describes the observed seasonal behavior very well. It is noted, however, that senescence of plants and field management practices will also influence the seasonal variation of Γ_s on a shorter timescale. Finally, a relation that links Γ_s to the atmospheric pollution level of the location through the ‘long-term’ NH₃ concentration in the air is proposed.     

Humic acid in ice: Photo-enhanced conversion of nitrogen dioxide into nitrous acid

Laboratory studies on the heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen dioxide into nitrous acid on irradiated ice films containing humic acid are described. It was found that the presence of light in the visible range of the solar spectrum significantly enhances the rate of nitrous acid release from a humic acid doped ice film. This process might contribute to observed HONO production in snow, where the NO₂ is thought to originate from nitrate photolysis. Analysis of the experimental data based on the Langmuir Hinshelwood model framework allowed quantification of the observed dependencies of the nitrous acid production rate on nitrogen dioxide concentration. The observed dependencies on the humic acid concentration as well as on the irradiation intensity were used to estimate light-driven HONO fluxes for environmental snow covers.     

Quantifying trace gas emissions from composite landscapes: A mass-budget approach with aircraft measurements

Quantifying trace gas emissions and the influence of surface exchange processes on the atmosphere is a necessary step towards the control of global greenhouse gas emissions and reliability of air quality models. This paper proposes a procedure based on the mass balance method and implemented on highly resolved aircraft data. It allows one to estimate surface exchanges on areas of several km² and heterogeneous features exploiting the characteristics of convective boundary layer during steady state conditions that permit the estimation of emission/absorption terms as functions of advective fluxes only. A nonparametric approach is adopted and the fluxes on the surface of a virtual box surrounding the area of interest are reconstructed on the basis of scalar densities and wind vectors using Shepard functions. Two different techniques are also proposed to face lack of data on the top surface of the box. The method has been applied to experimental data coming from measurement campaigns on two different sites. It provides realistic estimates of the CO₂ emission/absorption in the considered areas that are in good agreement with CO₂ fluxes evaluated by Airborne Eddy Covariance and confirm the suitability of the proposed approach for the assessment of turbulent exchange of trace gases by composite landscapes. Uncertainties on the estimated emissions due to both propagation of the experimental error and interpolation have been quantified by bootstrap analysis as 6%.