Use of fuzzy logic models for prediction of taste and odor compounds in algal bloom-affected inland water bodies

Mechanistic modeling of how algal species produce metabolites (e.g., taste and odor compounds geosmin and 2-methyl isoborneol (2-MIB)) as a biological response is currently not well understood. However, water managers and water utilities using these reservoirs often need methods for predicting metabolite production, so that appropriate water treatment procedures can be implemented. In this research, a heuristic approach using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was developed to determine the underlying nonlinear and uncertain quantitative relationship between observed cyanobacterial metabolites (2-MIB and geosmin), various algal species, and physical and chemical variables. The model is proposed to be used in conjunction with numerical water quality models that can predict spatial–temporal distribution of flows, velocities, water quality parameters, and algal functional groups. The coupling of the proposed metabolite model with the numerical water quality models would assist various utilities which use mechanistic water quality models to also be able to predict distribution of taste and odor metabolites, especially when monitoring of metabolites is limited. The proposed metabolite model was developed and tested for the Eagle Creek Reservoir in Indiana (USA) using observations over a 3-year period (2008–2010). Results show that the developed models performed well for geosmin (R ²?=?0.83 for all training data and R ²?=?0.78 for validation of all 10 data points in the validation dataset) and reasonably well for the 2-MIB (R ²?=?0.82 for all training data and R ²?=?0.70 for 7 out of 10 data points in the validation dataset).     

The role of agency in sustainable local community development

Abstract

In this paper we question the importance of social capital as a primary indicator of a community's ability to engage in sustainable development as social capital can have both hindering and facilitating effects. We suggest that actor agency allows an individual or group to increase access to other critical forms of capital to overcome barriers and solve problems. We present ‘bonding’ social capital consisting of strong network ties as a negative in excess quantity as it can lead to the enforcement of social norms that hinder innovative change, and ‘bridging’ social capital consisting of weak network ties as a benefit that allows actors to bring about critical social changes. Communities achieve agency through a dynamic mix of bonding and bridging ties. We close with suggestions for fostering community agency and flag the need for further research in this area.     

Conservation of Fragmented Populations

In this paper we argue that landscape spatial structure is of central importance in understanding the effects of fragmentation on population survival. Landscape spatial structure is the spatial relationships among habitat patches and the matrix in which they are embedded. Many general models of subdivided populations make the assumptions that (1) all habitat patches are equivalent in size and quality and (2) all local populations (in the patches) are equally accessible by dispersers. Models that gloss over spatial details of landscape structure can be useful for theoretical developments but will almost always be misleading when applied to real-world conservation problems. We show that local extinctions of fragmented populations are common. From this it follows that recolonization of local extinctions is critical for regional survival of fragmented populations. The probability of recolonization depends on (1) spatial relationships among landscape elements used by the population, including habitat patches for breeding and elements of the inter-patch matrix through which dispersers move, (2) dispersal characteristics of the organism of interest, and (3) temporal changes in the landscape structure. For endangered species, which are typically restricted in their dispersal range and in the kinds of habitat through which they can disperse, these factors are of primary importance and must be explicitly considered in management decisions.