Uncertainty analysis of predicted disturbance from off-road vehicular traffic in complex landscapes at fort hood

The US Army Engineering Research Development Center (ERDC) uses a modified form of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate spatially explicit rates of soil erosion by water across military training facilities. One modification involves the RUSLE support practice factor (P factor), which is used to account for the effect of disturbance by human activities on erosion rates. Since disturbance from off-road military vehicular traffic moving through complex landscapes varies spatially, a spatially explicit nonlinear regression model (disturbance model) is used to predict the distribution of P factor values across a training facility. This research analyzes the uncertainty in this model's disturbance predictions for the Fort Hood training facility in order to determine both the spatial distribution of prediction uncertainty and the contribution of different error sources to that uncertainty. This analysis shows that a three-category vegetation map used by the disturbance model was the greatest source of prediction uncertainty, especially for the map categories shrub and tree. In areas mapped as grass, modeling error (uncertainty associated with the model parameter estimates) was the largest uncertainty source. These results indicate that the use of a high-quality vegetation map that is periodically updated to reflect current vegetation distributions, would produce the greatest reductions in disturbance prediction uncertainty.     

鞍山市ADMS-城市空气扩散模型的建立与验证

利用ADMS-城市扩散模型和鞍山市2002年排放清单数据库，建立了鞍山市SO2（二氧化硫）空气扩散模型.同时利用2002年的气象和监测资料对模型进行了验证。结果表明：年和四季的SO2监测值和预测值的一致性较好。     

上海城市陆上运输化学灾祸评价及对策研究

通过分析90年代以来,上海城市化学危险品陆上运输规律,确定了10条重点路段和二个重点渡口,并对其进行了灾祸评价,提出了上海城市化学危险品陆上运输安全对策．     

都市扩张与土地资源利用集约化：关于上海市城市发展模式的研究

随着我国经济的持续高速增长,人口向城市,尤其是大城市集中的趋势越来越明显,城市规模正在迅速膨胀。具体说来,主要体现在以下三个方面－城市占地面积的扩张;城市人口的膨胀;城市经济实力的增长。     

山西省自然灾害的区域经济评价

以区域经济学为基础，灾害学为主导，应用层次分析原理，分析了山西省自然灾害对区域经济发展的影响，评价了不同区域的灾害严重程度及主要灾种，将全省划分为五大灾害经济区，为区域生产力布局提供了一些科学理论依据．     

EVALUATION OF NINE MODELS FOR UNGAUGED URBAN BASINS IN LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: Nine flood-estimation models used for ungauged urban watersheds in Louisiana were evaluated. Flood-quantile predictions from simple regression models calibrated by local data were found to be more reliable than those more complicated models or models with many parameters that may not be accurately estimated. Flood prediction from models developed by using regionalization techniques were found to be reasonably good. Finally, application of a model outside of its limitations or domain may lead to substantial prediction error.     

高价值综合利用攀钢钛矿渣的途径─－利用提钛后残渣生产复合水泥与少熟料水泥

本文较系统地研究了提钛后的残渣、矿渣、熟料、激化剂等因素对复合水泥与少熟料水泥强度的影响；找出了利用提钛后的残渣生产复合水泥与少熟料水泥生产的最佳条件，并对复合水泥和少熟料水泥的性能进行了初步探索。试验数据表明，利用提钛后残渣可生产５２５￣＃复合水泥和４２５￣＃少熟料水泥，工业废渣利用率可达７０％。     

垃圾灾害发生的特点与发展灾情分析

垃圾灾害是人类的杰作，是２１世纪的最大公害之一．本文运用大量的事实阐述了垃圾灾害发生的特点和发展的现状灾情，旨在为垃圾资源化利用和环境综合整治提供决策依据。     

磨料浆液除锈机理的研究

本文将冲蚀机理引入金属除锈工艺。通过分析冲蚀的单元作用机理、冲击过程中能量平衡及影响冲蚀的诸因素，阐明了金属除锈的机理。利用刚性粒子冲击塑性材料的模型推导出了除锈效率较高的最佳射流入射角。在钢板除锈应用过程中先以９０°入射角冲击钢板，使钢板上的脆性表层很快形成赫兹裂纹，并且容易脱落，再以１６．４８°的入射角冲蚀钢板，效果理想。     

ISS-2锌渣标准样品中Zn、Pb、Cd全量浸取研究及与纯水浸提比较

锌渣标准样品２００目，已经过多家实验室协作定值，通过二种方法可提取样品中的全量Ｐｂ、Ｚｎ、Ｃｄ：（１）１＋９ＨＣｌ，密封，０１２～０１４ＭＰａ，１２１℃，６０ｍｉｎ；（２）１＋９ＨＣｌ，超声波处理，６０ｍｉｎ。