Why Use One Model? An Approach for Encompassing Model Uncertainty and Improving Best Practice

There has been some discussion within the UK modelling community regarding the preferred choice of dispersion model for assessing the air quality impact of elevated point sources, each of which is reported to perform better than the other in certain circumstances. Coupled to this is the growing acceptance within the modelling community to include some recognition of model uncertainty in its reporting. As computer processing speeds increase further, this paper considers the possibility of using more than one model and highlights some of the advantages in doing so.     

Measuring Biotechnology Employees’ Ethical Attitudes towards a Controversial Transgenic Cattle Project: The Ethical Valence Matrix

What is the relationship between biotechnology employees’ beliefs about the moral outcomes of a controversial transgenic research project and their attitudes of acceptance towards the project? To answer this question, employees (n=466) of a New Zealand company, AgResearch Ltd., were surveyed regarding a project to create transgenic cattle containing a synthetic copy of the human myelin basic protein gene (hMBP). Although diversity existed amongst employees’ attitudes of acceptance, they were generally: in favor of the project, believed that it should be allowed to proceed to completion, and that it is acceptable to use transgenic cattle to produce medicines for humans. These three items were aggregated to form a project acceptance score. Scales were developed to measure respondents’ beliefs about the moral outcomes of the project for identified stakeholders in terms of the four principles of common morality (benefit, non-harm, justice, and autonomy). These data were statistically aggregated into an Ethical Valence Matrix for the project. The respondents’ project Ethical Valence Scores correlated significantly with their project acceptance scores (r=0.64, p<0.001), accounting for 41% of the variance in respondents’ acceptance attitudes. Of the four principles, non-harm had the strongest correlation with attitude to the project (r=0.59), followed by benefit and justice (both r=0.54), then autonomy (r=0.44). These results indicate that beliefs about the moral outcomes of a research project, in terms of the four principles approach, are strongly related to, and may be significant determinants of, attitudes to the research project. This suggests that, for employees of a biotechnology organization, ethical reasoning could be a central mechanism for the evaluation of the acceptability of a project. We propose that the Ethical Valence Matrix may be used as a tool to measure ethical attitudes towards controversial issues, providing a metric for comparison of perceived ethical consequences for multiple stakeholder groups and for the evaluation and comparison of the ethical consequences of competing alternative issues or projects. The tool could be used to measure both public and special interest groups’ ethical attitudes and results used for the development of socially responsible policy or by science organizations as a democratizing decision aid to selection amongst projects competing for scarce research funds.     

Global transport rates of Cs and Pu originating from the Nagasaki A-bomb in 1945 as determined from analysis of Canadian Arctic ice cores

Recent advancements in analytical technology make it possible for artificial radionuclides released from nuclear explosions to be detected in Arctic ice core layers. The fission product, ¹³⁷Cs, and the unexpended fission material, ^239+240Pu, originating from the Nagasaki A-bomb of August 1945, were measured by collecting 10 ice cores on the Agassiz ice cap, Ellesmere Island, Canada. The deposition rates were 0·020 mBq cm^-2 for ¹³⁷Cs and 0·0016 mBq cm^-2 for ^239+240Pu, originating from Nagasaki. Assuming the radionuclides, excluding the amount fissioned from the explosion and deposi-ted as local fallout, are deposited evenly throughout the Northern Hemisphere, 67% of the expected amount of ¹³⁷Cs reached the Arctic while 1·1% of ^239+240Pu reached the Arctic. The results suggest that different transport mechanisms exist for various contaminants in the global transport system.     

土壤理化特性对稻田CH4排放的影响

为了研究土壤理化特性对稻田CH4 排放的影响 ,室外盆栽试验于 2 0 0 0年水稻生长季在南京农业大学实施 ,1 8个供试水稻土分别取自江苏宜兴、江宁、六合、仪征及宝应等地 .所有供试土壤的季节性CH4 平均排放通量为 6 42± 2 70mg·(m2 ·h) - 1,最低和最高值分别为 1 96mg·(m2 ·h) - 1和 1 1 0 6mg·(m2 ·h) - 1,两者相差约 5 6倍 .单相关分析结果表明 :影响CH4 排放的主要土壤参数为质地、氮素状况及铜含量 .CH4 排放与土壤砂粒含量呈正相关 (r =0 5 2 8,p =0 0 2 4) ,与粘粒含量呈负相关 (r =-0 484,p =0 0 42 ) .氮素含量高的土壤CH4 排放较低 ,CH4 排放与土壤全氮、速效氮和铵态氮含量的线性相关系数分别为 -0 449(p =0 0 62 )、-0 61 1 (p =0 0 0 7)和 -0 649(p =0 0 0 4) .土壤铜含量直接影响CH4 的排放 ,CH4 排放与有效态铜和全铜含量的线性相关系数分别为 -0 5 94(p =0 0 0 9)和 -0 5 47(p =0 0 1 9) .本研究并未观测到CH4 排放与土壤有机碳含量有相关关系 ,这与前人报道的实验室培养测定结果及稻田CH4 排放随土壤有机质含量提高而增加的假设完全不同 .逐步回归分析表明 ,不同土壤间CH4 排放的变异性有 75 5 %可由土壤有效态铜含量、镁 (全量 )含量及有效铁含量与全量铁之     

The influence of swimming speed on sustained swimming performance of late-stage reef fish larvae

Replicate clutches of larvae were swum in a swimming flume at 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16 cm s^-1 and the time swum until exhaustion recorded. There was a significant relationship between sustained swimming time and swimming speed for both maximum (R²=0.77; P<0.05) and mean sustained swimming times (R²=0.78; P<0.05), with fish swimming at slower speeds swimming longer and covering greater total distances. The relationship observed agrees with theoretical principles relating increasing swimming speed with increasing drag. We used our data for Amphiprion melanopus, combined with published information, to predict the swimming speeds that other reef fish taxa should be able to maintain for significant lengths of time (12-48 h) using three different models. The results agree well with field estimates (R² values from 0.45 to 0.84), suggesting that there may be underlying factors influencing swimming ability in reef fish larvae that can be used to predict swimming abilities of different taxa. These models suggest that sustained swimming behaviour by reef fish larvae could have a much greater impact on modifying larval dispersal than previously thought.     

The importance of methane and thiosulfate in the metabolism of the bacterial symbionts of two deep-sea mussels

Undescribed hydrocarbon-seep mussels were collected from the Louisiana Slope, Gulf of Mexico, during March 1986, and the ultrastructure of their gills was examined and compared to Bathymodiolus thermophilus, a mussel collected from the deep-sea hydrothermal vents on the Galápagos Rift in March 1985. These closely related mytilids both contain abundant symbiotic bacteria in their gills. However, the bacteria from the two species are distinctly different in both morphology and biochemistry, and are housed differently within the gills of the two mussels. The symbionts from the seep mussel are larger than the symbionts from B. thermophilus and, unlike the latter, contain stacked intracytoplasmic membranes. In the seep mussel three or fewer symbionts appear to be contained in each host-cell vacuole, while in B. thermophilus there are often more than twenty bacteria visible in a single section through a vacuole. The methanotrophic nature of the seep-mussel symbionts was confirmed in ¹⁴C-methane uptake experiments by the appearance of label in both CO₂ and acid-stable, non-volatile, organic compounds after a 3 h incubation of isolated gill tissue. Furthermore, methane consumption was correlated with methanol dehydrogenase activity in isolated gill tissue. Activity of ribulose-1,5-biphosphate (RuBP) carboxylase and ¹⁴CO₂ assimilation studies indicate the presence of either a second type of symbiont or contaminating bacteria on the gills of freshly captured seep mussels. A reevaluation of the nutrition of the symbionts in B. thermophilus indicates that while the major symbiont is not a methanotroph, its status as a sulfur-oxidizing chemoautotroph, as has been suggested previously, is far from proven.     

Interactions of marine plankton with transuranic elements

In a series of laboratory experiments, the biokinetics of ²⁴¹Am, an important transuranium element, was studied in Meganyctiphanes norvegica, a euphausiid common in the northwestern Mediterranean. The euphausiids accumulated Am from water by passive adsorption onto exoskeletons, achieving wet weight concentration factors on the order of 10² after 1 wk exposure; concentration factors varied inversely with the size of the euphausiids and linearly with their surface area:wet weight ratios. Essentially all (96±10%) of the Am taken up from water was associated with the exoskeleton, so that negligible Am was retained by the euphausiids after molting. The retention half-time of Am in molts was 2.9 d. Euphausiids could also concentrate Am from feeding suspensions by ingesting Am-labelled diatom cells, although there was negligible Am assimilation (3±2% after 4 d feeding); after passage through the gut, virtually all (99%) of the ingested Am was defecated within 1 wk. The retention half-time of Am in fecal pellets was 41 and 51 d at 13° and 5°C, respectively. In oceanic waters, where the preponderance of ²⁴¹Am is in the dissolved phase, uptake of Am from water by euphausiids would be the dominant route of bioaccumulation. The results underscore the importance of sinking biogenic debris from zooplankters in mediating the vertical transport of Am in the sea. Given their retention half-times for ²⁴¹Am and their rapid sinking rates, fecal pellets and discarded molts have the potential to deliver most of their Am to the sediments.     

Methanotrophic symbiont location and fate of carbon incorporated from methane in a hydrocarbon seep mussel

Seep Mytilid Ia (SMIa), an undescribed mussel found at hydrocarbon seeps in the Gulf of Mexico, harbors intracellular methanotrophic symbionts. Two techniques were used to address the hypothesis that host digestion of symbionts is a significant mechanism of carbon transfer from symbiont to host in the SMIa association: lysosomal enzyme cytochemistry and ¹⁴C tissue autoradiography. Acid phosphatase activity was consistently localized in the Golgi apparatus and associated vesicles of gill cells, but was detected around bacteria in only three of approximately 50 bacteriocytes examined. These results indicate that the cellular equipment necessary for lysosomal digestion of symbionts is present in host bacteriocytes, but that acid phosphatase activity in symbiont vacuoles is rare at a given point in time. Tissue autoradiography was conducted with mussels collected in September 1992 to document carbon fixation by symbionts and follow the time course of transfer to host tissues. No asymbiotic host cell type showed a significant increase in relative grain density until at least 1 d after the end of incubation with ¹⁴C-methane. The ratio of label in the basal portion of bacteriocytes to total bacteriocyte label did not show a significant increase until 10 d after the end of the incubation period, indicating a slow increase of labeled carbon in the putative residual bodies, containing the remnants of lysosomal digestion. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that host digestion of symbionts is one route of nutrient acquisition in SMIa. Intracellular methanotrophic bacteria were found outside of the gill in SMIa juveniles, in mantle and foot epithelial tissues previously believed to be symbiont-free. These extra-gill symbionts and their host cells are morphologically similar to their gill counterparts and, like the gill symbionts, actively fix carbon from methane. Received: 29 March 1997 / Accepted: 12 May 1997     

Alternatives for Managing Drought: A Comparative Cost Analysis

The question addressed by this study is how a large urban water district can best respond to a drought. Using a computer model of a representative district, we find that a combination of conjunctive use and water marketing is well over an order of magnitude cheaper than the traditional alternative of constructing new storage capacity. The indicated cost saving can be explained by the intermittent nature of the transfer, corresponding to the intermittent demand. Comparing costs to benefits, the consumer-surplus loss otherwise entailed by raising prices to cut back on consumption in the event of a drought, we find that construction of new storage does not pass a benefit/cost test, but introduction of conjunctive use/water marketing does.     

The impact of maternal serum alpha fetoprotein screening on open neural tube defect births in North-East Scotland

Over the three years period 1980–1982, 18 256 pregnancies in the Grampian Region of N-E Scotland including the islands of Orkney and Shetland were screened for raised levels of maternal serum alpha fetoprotein (MSAFP) in the second trimester. Thirty six cases of fetal open neural tube defect in singletons were detected (18 anencephaly and 18 spina bifida). Four additional cases of open spina bifida were associated with normal MSAFP levels although two of these were detected by amniotic fluid AFP measurement when amniocentesis was carried out because of previous NTD history. A further three cases of open spina bifida and two of anencephaly occurred in unscreened pregnancies. The MSAFP screening programme alone was thus instrumental in reducing the birth incidence of open neural tube defects by 36 out of 45 cases (80 per cent) in singletons.