Detection and false-positive rates of maternal serum markers for Down syndrome screening according to maternal age in women over 35 years of age. A study of the agreement of eight dedicated software packages

Maternal serum markers for trisomy 21 screening (MSS) can be assayed in women ≥35 years in an attempt to reduce the need for invasive procedures and thereby avoid their side effects. Our objective was to compare, in women ≥35, eight different software packages dedicated to second trimester MSS, thus providing reliable data for patient counselling. A simulation study was carried out on 189 sera from women with Down syndrome fetuses and 11 962 sera from mothers of unaffected babies. The first step was to estimate the joint distribution of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG). The second step was to calculate trisomy 21 detection and false-positive rates for each software according to maternal age (35–45 years), using the usual 1:250 risk threshold. Agreement between software packages was measured using 2×2 kappa coefficients. Detection rates and false-positive rates increased with maternal age. Depending on the software, 57–71% detection rates were achieved at 35 years with 12–18% false-positive rates. At 45 years, 61–100% detection rates were achieved with 66–95% false-positive rates. Up to 39 years, all softwares were concordant (kappa coefficients >0.75). In the range 35–45 years, false-positive and detection rates increased substantially with maternal age and differences between software packages are observed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ characterization of sulphur in gill-endosymbionts of the shallow water lucinid Codakia orbicularis (Linné, 1758) by high-pressure cryofixation and EFTEM microanalysis

In this study, Codakia orbicularis gill-tissues were cryo-fixed by using high-pressure freezing, a freeze substitution process and finally by cryo-embedding in Lowicryl. Ultrathin sections were then used for an EFTEM microanalysis. Results show that intracellular bacterial symbionts contain elemental sulphur in periplasmic vesicles as indicated by conventional TEM. When sulphur is temporarily depleted in the environment, such structures may act as energy sources for bacterial metabolism. Moreover, sulphate was detected in the cytoplasm of the bacterial symbionts, suggesting the oxidation of elemental sulphur, located in periplasmic granules, to sulphate (the final step in sulphur oxidation) by these chemoautotrophic bacteria. To assess the effects of host starvation on the bacterial sulphur content, adult individuals of C. orbicularis were maintained in starvation for 6 weeks in sterile artificial seawater depleted in sulphur. During starvation, both (1) the number of bacteria inside the bacteriocytes and (2) the number of periplasmic granules per prokaryotic cell decreased. The content of the remaining periplasmic granules had been modified to sulphate. This observation suggests that bacterial gill-endosymbionts used the elemental sulphur in their periplasmic granules as stored substrate for oxidation in order to produce energy in case of sulphur depletion.     

Do ovarian scars persist with age in all Cetaceans: new insight from the short-beaked common dolphin (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Delphinus delphis</Emphasis> Linnaeus<Emphasis Type="Italic">,</Emphasis> 1758)

The determination of reproductive status and the reconstruction of individual reproductive histories are central to many ecological studies. In cetaceans, it has been assumed that ovarian scars accumulate with age and provide a lifetime record of female reproductive history. If ovarian scars persist, the number of scars should increase with age after puberty. To test this, we examined age, reproductive status and ovarian scars from 187 short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) from the eastern North Atlantic. The number of Corpus Albicans (CA) present in ovaries did not increase with age after age at sexual maturity (ASM), suggesting that ovarian scars are not persistent and that their number at any one time would be a function of rates of ovulation and healing, the latter being defined here as the resorption or disintegration of CA tissue. Since female mammals stop ovulating when pregnant, inferences about healing rates could be made by using pregnant females. Pregnant females had ca. 40% fewer scars than non-pregnant females. This suggests that most CAs would heal quickly, with a half-life of less than 1 year, although larger scars may persist longer. Therefore, counting CAs would have limited potential for reconstructing individual reproductive lifetime histories in the common dolphin. A reassessment of the use of ovarian scars to reconstruct individual life reproductive histories in cetaceans is suggested.     

Estimating parameters of neutral communities: from one single large to several small samples

The neutral theory of S. P. Hubbell postulates a two-scale hierarchical framework consisting of a metacommunity following the speciation-drift equilibrium characterized by the "biodiversity number" theta, and local communities following the migration-drift equilibrium characterized by the "migration rate" m (or the "fundamental dispersal number" I). While Etienne's sampling formula allows simultaneous estimation of theta and m from a single sample of a local community, its applicability to a network of (rather small) samples is questionable. We define here an alternative two-stage approach estimating theta from an adequate subset of the individuals sampled in the field (using Ewens' sampling formula) and m from community samples (using Etienne's sampling formula). We compare its results with the simultaneous estimation of theta and m (one-stage estimation), for simulated neutral samples and for 50 1-ha plots of evergreen forest in South India. The one-stage approach exhibits problems of bias and of poor differentiability between high-theta, low-m and low-theta, high-m solution domains. Conversely, the two-stage approach yielded reasonable estimates and is to be preferred when several small, scattered plots are available instead of a single large one.     

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs

Effective ecosystem‐based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components’ vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions.