Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change

This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability.     

Match/mismatch between the Mytilus edulis larval supply and seston quality: effect on recruitment

We considered Cushing's match/mismatch theory in a heterotrophic environment and hypothesized that settlement and recruitment success in blue mussel are higher when the food supply is rich in polyunsaturated and essential fatty acids (PUFA/EFA). To test this hypothesis, we monitored larval development as well as fatty acid composition in trophic resources during two successive reproductive seasons. The decoupling we found between the presence of competent larvae in the water column and settlement rates strongly suggests that metamorphosis is delayed until conditions are suitable. In both years, the major mussel settlement peak was synchronized with a phytoplanktonic pulse rich in EFA, consisting of a large autotrophic bloom in 2007 and a short but substantial peak of picoeukaryotes in 2008. These results suggest a "trophic settlement trigger" that indirectly affects recruitment by strongly improving the settlement rate. Despite similar larval settlement rates during both years, the lower 2007 recruitment likely resulted from a mismatch with a high lipid-quality trophic resource. The seasonal trophic conditions differed greatly between the two years, with fatty acids profiles reflecting heterotrophic plankton production in 2007 and mostly autotrophic production in 2008. In agreement with Cushing's theory, our results highlight a match/mismatch, related to the food lipid quality rather than food quantity. For the first time, we show that the recruitment in marine bivalves may be dependent on phytoplanktonic pulses characterized by high levels of PUFA.     

Understanding multiple ecological responses to anthropogenic disturbance: rivers and potential flow regime change

Human-induced alteration of the natural flow regime is a major threat to freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. The effects of hydrological alteration on the structural and functional attributes of riverine communities are expected to be multiple and complex, and they may not be described easily by a single model. Based on existing knowledge of key hydrological and ecological attributes, we explored potential effects of a flow-regulation scenario on macroinvertebrate assemblage composition and diversity in two river systems in Australia's relatively undeveloped wet-dry tropics. We used a single Bayesian belief network (BBN) to model potential changes in multiple assemblage attributes within each river type during dry and wet seasons given two flow scenarios: the current, near-natural flow condition, and flow regulation. We then used multidimensional scaling (MDS) ordination to visually summarize and compare the most probable attributes of assemblages and their environment under the different scenarios. The flow-regulation scenario provided less certainty in the ecological responses of one river type during the dry season, which reduced the ability to make predictions from the BBN outputs directly. However, visualizing the BBN results in an ordination highlighted similarities and differences between the scenarios that may have been otherwise difficult to ascertain. In particular, the MDS showed that flow regulation would reduce the seasonal differentiation in hydrology and assemblage characteristics that is expected under the current low level of development. Our approach may have wider application in understanding ecosystem responses to different river management practices and should be transferred easily to other ecosystems or biotic assemblages to provide researchers, managers, and decision makers an enhanced understanding of ecological responses to potential anthropogenic disturbance.     

Genetic diversity,clonality and connectivity in the scleractinian coral Pocillopora damicornis: a multi-scale analysis in an insular,fragmented reef system

Clonality and genetic structure of the coral Pocillopora damicornis sensu lato were assessed using five microsatellites in 12 populations from four islands of the Society Archipelago (French Polynesia) sampled in June 2008. The 427 analysed specimens fell into 132 multilocus genotypes (MLGs), suggesting that asexual reproduction plays an important role in the maintenance of these populations. A haploweb analysis of ITS2 sequences of each MLG was consistent with all of them being conspecific. Genetic differentiation was detected both between and within islands, but when a single sample per MLG was included in the analyses, the populations turned out to be nearly panmictic. These observations provide further evidence of the marked variability in reproductive strategies and genetic structure of P. damicornis throughout its geographic range; comparison with results previously obtained for the congeneric species Pocillopora meandrina underlines the importance of life history traits in shaping the genetic structure of coral populations.     

Ocean acidification and temperature rise: effects on calcification during early development of the cuttlefish Sepia officinalis

This study investigated the effects of seawater pH (i.e., 8.10, 7.85 and 7.60) and temperature (16 and 19 °C) on (a) the abiotic conditions in the fluid surrounding the embryo (viz. the perivitelline fluid), (b) growth, development and (c) cuttlebone calcification of embryonic and juvenile stages of the cephalopod Sepia officinalis. Egg swelling increased in response to acidification or warming, leading to an increase in egg surface while the interactive effects suggested a limited plasticity of the swelling modulation. Embryos experienced elevated pCO₂ conditions in the perivitelline fluid (>3-fold higher pCO₂ than that of ambient seawater), rendering the medium under-saturated even under ambient conditions. The growth of both embryos and juveniles was unaffected by pH, whereas ⁴⁵Ca incorporation in cuttlebone increased significantly with decreasing pH at both temperatures. This phenomenon of hypercalcification is limited to only a number of animals but does not guarantee functional performance and calls for better mechanistic understanding of calcification processes.     

Alteration of photosystem II activity by atrazine on Chlamydomonas reinhardtii synchronized and asynchronized cell cycle cultures

Inhibition of photosystem II (PSII) activity by atrazine was investigated in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii during different states of the cell cycle. The algal cultures were maintained under continuous light or under light/dark cycle (16/8?h) to obtain homogenized cell cycle distribution. The cycle state of algal population was determined by the DNA content using flow cytometry and defined as newly divided cells before the initiation of DNA replication (G₀/G₁) and cells at the end of the replication cycle with fully duplicated DNA content (G₂/M). Under different synchronized states of the cell population, the photosynthetic activity was investigated after treatment at 10, 100, and 1000?µmol?L^?1 atrazine exposed for 24?h by using fluorescence parameters related to PSII activity measured with a plant efficiency analyzer and pulse-amplitude modulated methods. In this study, we found that the atrazine effect was different depending on cell cycle phases and the period of illumination. Algal cells under light–dark cycle showed inhibition of the PSII electron transport leading to an increase of heat energy dissipation by the PSII reaction center. Algal cells grown under continuous light was shown to be more resistant to atrazine than the cells grown under light–dark cycle.     

Intergenerational effects of climate generate cohort variation in lizard reproductive performance

An evaluation of the link between climate and population dynamics requires understanding of climate effects both within and across generations. In ectothermic vertebrates, demographic responses to climate changes should crucially depend on balancing needs for heat and water. Here, we studied how temperature and rainfall regimes experienced before and during adulthood influenced reproductive performances (litter size, offspring size, and survival) in a natural population of the live-bearing common lizard, Lacerta vivipara, monitored continuously from 1989 to 2004. Rainfall regime, but not temperature, had both immediate and delayed effects on these reproductive performances. Rainfall during the first month of life was positively correlated with juvenile survival. Females experiencing more rainfall during gestation produced smaller neonates that showed greater survival when controlling for the positive effect of body size on survival. Furthermore, females that experienced heavier rainfall when in utero produced fewer but longer neonates during adulthood. These demographic effects of rainfall on adult reproductive traits may come from maternal effects of climate conditions and/or from delayed effects of rainfall on the environment experienced early in life. Irrespective of the precise mechanism, however, this study provides evidence of intergenerational climate effects in natural populations of an ectothermic vertebrate.     

Unexpected toxic interactions in the freshwater amphipod Gammarus pulex (L.) exposed to binary copper and nickel mixtures

To document the toxicity of copper and nickel in binary mixtures, freshwater amphipods Gammarus pulex were exposed to the metals given independently or as mixtures. Toxicity to Cu alone was relatively high: 96-h LC₁₀ and LC₅₀ were found at 91 and 196 μg L^?1, respectively. Toxicity to Ni alone was very low, with 96-h LC₁₀ and LC₅₀ of 44,900 and 79,200 μg L^?1, respectively. Mixture toxicities were calculated from single toxicity data using conventional models. Modeled toxicity was then compared with the measured toxicity of the binary mixture. Two kinds of mixtures were tested. Type I mixtures were designed as combinations of Cu and Ni given at the same effect concentrations, when taken independently, to identify possible interactions between copper and nickel. In type II mixtures, Cu concentrations varied from 0 to 600 μg L^?1 while the nickel concentration was kept constant at 500 μg L^?1 to mimic conditions of industrial wastewater discharges. Ni and Cu showed synergic effects in type I mixtures while type II mixtures revealed antagonistic effects. Low doses of Ni reduced Cu toxicity towards G. pulex. These results show that even for simple binary mixtures of contaminants with known chemistry and toxicity, unexpected interactions between the contaminants may occur. This reduces the reliability of conventional additivity models.     

Seeds’ physicochemical traits and mucilage protection against aluminum effect during germination and root elongation as important factors in a biofuel seed crop (Ricinus communis)

We determined the length, volume, dry biomass, and density in seeds of five castor bean cultivars and verified notable physicochemical trait differences. Seeds were then subjected to different toxic aluminum (Al) concentrations to evaluate germination, relative root elongation, and the role of root apices’ rhizosphere mucilage layer. Seeds’ physicochemical traits were associated with Al toxicity responses, and the absence of Al in cotyledons near to the embryo was revealed by Al-hematoxylin staining, indicating that Al did not induce significant germination reduction rates between cultivars. However, in the more sensitive cultivar, Al was found around the embryo, contributing to subsequent growth inhibition. After this, to investigate the role of mucilage in Al tolerance, an assay was conducted using NH₄Cl to remove root mucilage before or after exposure to different Al concentrations. Sequentially, the roots were stained with hematoxylin and a quantitative analysis of staining intensity was obtained. These results revealed the significant contribution of the mucilage layer to Al toxicity responses in castor bean seedlings. Root growth elongation under Al toxicity confirmed the role of the mucilage layer, which jointly indicated the differential Al tolerance between cultivars and an efficient Al-exclusion mechanism in the tolerant cultivar.