Setting national emission ceilings for air pollutants: policy lessons from an ex-post evaluation of the Gothenburg Protocol

The Gothenburg Protocol set national emission ceilings for transboundary air pollutants in 2010. These ceilings were formulated in 1999 using the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model and national forecast data. The 2010 ceiling deadline is approaching as is a revision process which may lead to the setting of emission ceilings for 2020. This paper considers the original 1999 projections of six countries that were used within the RAINS model to inform the setting of their respective Gothenburg Protocol 2010 emission ceilings. These data are then contrast against recent inventory data and contemporary short-term forecasts out to 2010. These recent forecasts indicate that major downward shifts in the trends of pollutant emissions have been achieved, and whilst compliance challenges remain, there is a clear indication of the potential of such international agreements and their associated legislative and policy driven mechanisms. However, in a process governed by a maxim of achieving international environmental objectives at ‘least-cost’, the recent experience offers some valuable lessons. Specifically, in relation to the accuracy of energy projections and assumptions of other relevant variables in the modelling process. This paper considers these lessons and opens a discussion on the role of more adaptable mechanisms for the ongoing management of international agreements with long-term compliance horizons.     

Changes in the sorption, desorption, distribution, and availability of copper, induced by application of sewage sludge on Chilean soils contaminated by mine tailings

The effect of mine tailings and sewage sludge was evaluated on sorption, desorption, availability and distribution of copper in two soils, one high (sandy soil) and one low in copper (clay soil). In both soils contaminated by mine tailings the copper sorption capacity and the affinity of the substrate for the metal decreased substantially compared to the uncontaminated soils, however, the sorption remained always high in the clay soil substrates. In the substrates with sandy soil, the high Cu content and lower clay content were determining factors in the lower magnitude of the sorption. Similarly, metal desorption was closely related to these two parameters, and it was higher in clay soil with lower pH. In general, the application of sewage sludge favored the sorption of Cu in soils contaminated and uncontaminated with mine tailings, and in all cases desorption decreased, an effect that remained for at least 30 days. Simple extraction of Cu with CaCl2 and diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid gave contradictory results, so a careful choice of the procedure is required, depending on the level of metal in the soil and on the acting principle of the extracting agent. In that relation, more complete information on the changes in the metal forms was obtained by application of the sequential extraction procedure proposed by the European Community Bureau of Reference.     

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

The Mediterranean region of Chile is considered a biodiversity hot spot. An increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, as projected for the end of this century by global circulation models, would likely change the distribution of the sclerophyllous thorny shrubland and woodland. In order to assess those potential impacts, the MAXENT algorithm was used to project potential changes in the distribution of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Ecological niche models were fitted and used to project the potential distribution of these forest ecosystems by the end of the century. Projections were made using data from the PRECIS model for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and two strategies of occupancy: free migration and non-migration. Distribution models of sclerophyllous, woodland and shrubland performed accurately representing current species’ distribution. When we assume non-migration responses under climate change scenarios, results reveal a decrease in the distribution area for all the species. The areas where the highest reduction in a suitable environment was found are located along the coastline, where higher temperature increases have been projected. For native ecosystems from the Andean Range region, such as communities dominated by thorny species, a stable habitat was found, associated with a higher adaptation capability to future climatic projections. Hence, in the future, buffer zones originated by “topo-climatic” conditions might play a key role in protecting Central Chile biodiversity.     

Shallow fluid flow over an obstacle: higher-order non-hydrostatic modeling and breaking waves

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The simulation of shallow flows over obstacles is an important problem in environmental fluid dynamics, including exchange flows over seabed sills, atmospheric flows...     

Effect of the mixing ratio on the composting of OFMSW digestate: assessment of compost quality

This study presents the results obtained in compostability tests of organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) digestate. The final aim was to obtain mature compost without phytotoxic effects. For the evaluation of the composting process, a novel parameter describing the performance of the composting process, the relative heat generation standardized with the initial volatile solid content (RHGVS₀), was defined and evaluated at laboratory-scale. From these laboratory-scale test, the optimum operational conditions were obtained, a mixing ratio (v/v) of 1:1:0 (bulking agent:digestate:co-substrate) and with 15% of mature compost as inoculum. Subsequently, these optimum operational conditions were applied in the active phase of the composting pilot-scale reactor. The active composting stage took 7 days, subsequently a curing phase of 60 days was carried out at ambient conditions. After 30 days of curing, the mature compost showed a specific oxygen uptake rate (SOUR) of 0.14 mg O₂/g VS·h, a germination index (GI) of 99.63% and a low volatile fatty acids (VFA) concentration (41.3 AcH mg/kg_dm), being indicative of the good compost stability and maturity of the compost. The very good quality of the final compost obtained indicated that the RHGVS₀ accurately describes the performance of the composting process.

     

Arc StormSurge: Integrating Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling and GIS

Arc StormSurge is a data model that integrates geographic information systems and the hurricane wave and surge model SWAN+ADCIRC, which is the coupling of the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model and the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model. The Arc StormSurge data model is a geodatabase, which is a relational database that can contain georeferenced information. It includes feature classes in feature datasets and tables, all related among them through relationship classes, and raster catalogs and grids. In addition to the data model schema, Arc StormSurge includes a number of pre‐ and post‐processing tools that help integrate spatial data and numerical modeling. As an illustration, Arc StormSurge was used to support the modeling of Hurricane Bret, which made landfall in the Corpus Christi area in Texas in 1999. By using Arc StormSurge, it was possible to take advantage of already available geo‐referenced information (e.g., base maps, land cover datasets, and monitoring station locations) for the model setup, and for identifying spatial patterns in the model results by presenting them in map format.     

Coastal features analysis using GIS tools–stretch Esmoriz-Furadouro

The aim of this study is to identify morphological features and hydrodynamic patterns (e.g. coastal forms, wave breaking zones, rip current patterns, submerged bars), based on aerial photograph datasets. Understanding past patterns may help to increase the ability to predict future ones. To achieve the proposed objectives, a methodology to analyse aerial photograph datasets was developed. The analysis consists of visual identification of coastal features and patterns in a GIS environment. A GIS database was created to store the existing data and the result of the analysis. Several coastal features and patterns were identified, measured and correlated to the wave climate and other parameters. This correlation indicates that the presence and the dimensions of coastal features and patterns are closely related with the wave conditions and tide level, although the latter has less significance.