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101.
Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived. 相似文献
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OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to develop biomechanical corridors applicable to the small-sized female in side impacts. METHODS: Sled tests were conducted using post mortem human subjects at a velocity of 6.7 m/s. Three chestbands were used to compute deflection-time histories at the axilla, xyphoid process, and tenth rib levels. Triaxial accelerometers were fixed to the upper and lower spine and sacrum to record acceleration-time histories. Specimens contacted the load wall with varying initial conditions (rigid and padded; flat wall and offset) from which impact forces to the thoracic, abdominal, and pelvic regions were obtained using load cell data. Adopting signal processing and mass-based scaling methods, corridors were derived for forces, accelerations, and chest deflections at three levels for all initial conditions. RESULTS: All time history corridors were expressed as mean plus/minus one standard deviation and provided in the article. CONCLUSIONS: Acceleration-, deflection-, and force-time corridors obtained for the chest and pelvic regions of the human body will assist in the assessment of anthropomorphic test devices used in crashworthiness evaluations. 相似文献
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Already before the events of September 11th 2001 concern was raised about the spread of orphan sources and their potential use in Radiological Dispersion Devices by terrorist groups. Although most of the simulated scenarios foresee a rather limited direct health impact on the population, the affected region would suffer from the indirect consequences such as social disruption, cleanup requirements and economic costs. The nature of such a radiological attack would anyway be different compared to conventional radiological accidents, basically because it can happen anywhere at any time. Part of the response resides in a general preparedness scheme incorporating attacks with Radiological Dispersion Devices. Training of different potential intervention teams is essential. The response would consist of a prioritised list of actions adapted to the circumstances. As the psychosocial dimension of the crisis could be worse than the purely radiological one, an adapted communication strategy with the public aspect would be a key issue. 相似文献
106.
Narayan Yoganandan Hans Hauschild John Humm Yuvaraj Purushothaman Frank A. Pintar 《Traffic injury prevention》2019,20(4):S32-S37
AbstractObjective: The focus of this study is side impact. Though occupant injury assessment and protection in nearside impacts has received considerable attention and safety standards have been promulgated, field studies show that a majority of far-side occupant injuries are focused on the head and thorax. The 50th percentile male Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) has been used in oblique and lateral far-side impact sled tests, and regional body accelerations and forces and moments recorded by load cells have been previously reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate the chestband-based deflection responses from these tests.Methods: The 3-point belt–restrained 50th percentile male THOR dummy was seated upright in a buck consisting of a rigid flat seat, simulated center console, dashboard, far-side side door structure, and armrest. It was designed to conduct pure lateral and oblique impacts. The center console, dashboard, simulated door structure, and armrest were covered with energy-absorbing materials. A center-mounted airbag was mounted to the right side of the seat. Two 59-gage chestbands were routed on the circumference of the thorax, with the upper and lower chestbands at the level of the third and sixth ribs, respectively, following the rib geometry. Oblique and pure lateral far-side impact tests with and without airbags were conducted at 8.3 m/s. Maximum chest deflections were computed by processing temporal contours using custom software and 3 methods: Procedures paralleling human cadaver studies, using the actual anchor point location and actual alignment of the InfraRed Telescoping Rods for the Assessment of Chest Compression (IR-TRACC) in the dummy on each aspect—that is, right or left,—and using the same anchor location of the internal sensor but determining the location of the peak chest deflection on the contour confined to the aspect of the sensor; these were termed the SD, ID, and TD metrics, respectively.Results: All deformation contours at the upper and lower thorax levels and associated peak deflections are given for all tests. Briefly, the ID metrics were the lowest in magnitude for both pure lateral and oblique modes, regardless of the presence or absence of an airbag. This was followed by the TD metric, and the SD metric produced the greatest deflections.Conclusion: The chestbands provide a unique opportunity to compute peak deflections that parallel current IR-TRACC-type deflections and allow computation of peak deflections independent of the initial point of attachment to the rib. The differing locations of the peak deflection vectors along the rib contours for different test conditions suggest that a priori attachment is less effective. Further, varying magnitudes of the differences between ID and TD metrics underscore the difficulty in extrapolating ID outputs under different conditions: Pure lateral versus oblique, airbag presence, and thoracic levels. Deflection measurements should, therefore, not be limited to an instrument that can only track from a fixed point. For improved predictions, these results suggest the need to investigate alternative techniques, such as optical methods to improve chest deflection measurements for far-side occupant injury assessment and mitigation. 相似文献
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108.
Learning from local knowledge: modeling the pastoral-nomadic range management of the Himba, Namibia.
Birgit Müller Anja Linst?dter Karin Frank Michael Bollig Christian Wissel 《Ecological applications》2007,17(7):1857-1875
It is widely accepted that successful grazing management strategies in semiarid ecosystems need to be adapted to the highly temporal and spatially heterogeneous forage production. Nevertheless, a full understanding of the key factors and processes for sustainable adaptive management has yet to be reached. The investigation of existing, successful range management systems by simulation models may help to derive general understanding and basic principles. The semi-nomadic Himba in northern Namibia applied a sophisticated management system until the mid-1990s which combined season-dependent pasture use (resulting in rainy-season pastures and dry-season pastures), preservation of reserves for drought and sanctions for rule breaking. A stochastic ecological simulation model has been developed here which represents the main aspects of this management system. With this model we analyze (1) which components of the traditional Himba strategy are essential for sustainability and (2) what happens to the state of the rangeland system under socioeconomic changes. This study shows that temporally and spatially heterogeneous pasture use yields higher productivity and quality of a pasture area than the pressure of homogeneous permanent grazing. Two aspects are of importance: (1) intra-annual heterogeneous use (resting of the dry-season pastures during the rainy season) and (2) interannual heterogeneous use (spatial extension of grazing in years of drought). This management system leads to an effective build-up and use of a buffer in the system: the reserve biomass (the non-photosynthetic reserve organs of the plants), an indicator for grazing and management history. Analyzing purchase as one form of socioeconomic change, we demonstrate that easier market access to purchase livestock may lead to a decline in vegetation quality. However, cattle production increases as long as rest periods on parts of the pasture during the rainy season are granted. Methodologically, we emphasize that simulation models offer an excellent framework for analyzing and depicting basic principles in sustainable range management derived from local knowledge. They provide the opportunity of testing whether these basic principles are also valid under different ecological and socioeconomic settings. 相似文献
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