Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States.

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions.     

Larval viability and heterozygote deficiency in populations of marine bivalves: evidence from pair matings of mussels

Using a pressurized temperature gradient, which rapidly equilibrates bacteria to a wide range of temperature and pressures, temperature ranges for growth and survival of Vibrio harveyi (strain B 392) were found to narrow with increasing pressures. Both temperature and pressure ranges were greater in an enriched seawater medium than in unenriched seawater. Using a kinetics apparatus, V. harveyi was also exposed to gradual changes in temperature and pressure, simulating a particle sinking at approximately 200 m d^-1 from surface waters (17 °C; 1 bar pressure) to 3 400 m (4°C; 340 bars pressure). With gradual temperature changes, cells were able to grow and survive at lower temperatures than they had in rapid equilibration experiments. Gradual pressurization, however, did not increase pressure tolerance. Under all experimental conditions, the combined effects of low temperatures and high pressures were lethal for V. harveyi. It is hypothesized that temperature and pressure stratify the ocean into regions of growth, survival, and death for V. harveyi, and perhaps other bacteria.     

On estimating air pollution control benefits from land value studies

This paper deals with some unresolved issues in interpreting empirical property value/air pollution studies. A model is developed in which it is shown that in general regressions of property values on pollution variables do not identify the demand curve for clean air. However since the first derivative of the observed rent function is a locus of household equilibrium marginal willingnesses to pay, aggregate benefits can be calculated directly. The possibilities for obtaining approximate measures of aggregate benefits for nonmarginal changes in air quality are also discussed.     

Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: A comparison of stochastic gradient boosting,generalized additive models,and tree-based methods

Many efforts are underway to produce broad-scale forest attribute maps by modelling forest class and structure variables collected in forest inventories as functions of satellite-based and biophysical information. Typically, variants of classification and regression trees implemented in Rulequest's^© See5 and Cubist (for binary and continuous responses, respectively) are the tools of choice in many of these applications. These tools are widely used in large remote sensing applications, but are not easily interpretable, do not have ties with survey estimation methods, and use proprietary unpublished algorithms. Consequently, three alternative modelling techniques were compared for mapping presence and basal area of 13 species located in the mountain ranges of Utah, USA. The modelling techniques compared included the widely used See5/Cubist, generalized additive models (GAMs), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Model performance was evaluated using independent test data sets. Evaluation criteria for mapping species presence included specificity, sensitivity, Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC). Evaluation criteria for the continuous basal area variables included correlation and relative mean squared error. For predicting species presence (setting thresholds to maximize Kappa), SGB had higher values for the majority of the species for specificity and Kappa, while GAMs had higher values for the majority of the species for sensitivity. In evaluating resultant AUC values, GAM and/or SGB models had significantly better results than the See5 models where significant differences could be detected between models. For nine out of 13 species, basal area prediction results for all modelling techniques were poor (correlations less than 0.5 and relative mean squared errors greater than 0.8), but SGB provided the most stable predictions in these instances. SGB and Cubist performed equally well for modelling basal area for three species with moderate prediction success, while all three modelling tools produced comparably good predictions (correlation of 0.68 and relative mean squared error of 0.56) for one species.     

Depletable externalities and pigouvian taxation

In their book Baumol and Oates [“The Theory of Environmental Policy: Externalities, Public Outlays, and the Quality of Life,” Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. (1975).] argue that whether an externality is depletable (private) or undepletable (public) is the key characteristic in determining the optimal pricing pattern. They argue that unlike the undepletable case a negative depletable externality requires not only a charge or tax on the generator of the externality but a payment or compensation to the victim in order to achieve Pareto optimality. It is shown that the key characteristic determining whether compensation of victims is required for efficiency is not the depletability of the externality but whether the victim can costlessly control or limit the amount of the damaging substance received.     

Flexible foraging strategies in a diving seabird with high flight cost

How central-place foragers change search strategy in response to environmental conditions is poorly known. Foragers may vary the total distance travelled and how far they range from the central place in response to variation in the distribution of their prey. One potential reason as to why they would extend the length of their foraging trip and its distance from the colony would be to increase prey quality or quantity, despite incurring higher transit costs. To test this trade-off hypothesis in a species with high flight costs, we recorded the foraging behaviour of razorbills (Alca torca) using state-of-the-art techniques that log both individual horizontal (flight activity) and vertical (dive activity) movements. We show that the distance that razorbills travelled to foraging locations increased with sea-surface temperature, which may relate to higher prey quality or quantity. This relation is supported by an indirect index of patch quality, based on dive profiles, which also increased with travel distance from the colony. Furthermore, we show that this index was highest during the daily peak in diving activity, around midday. Taken together, these results suggest that razorbills are capable of adjusting their search strategies sensitively in response to proximate environmental cues.     

Frequency analysis of hazardous material transportation incidents as a function of distance from origin to incident location

According to the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT), more than 3.1 billion tons of hazardous materials (HazMat) are shipped within the United States annually. This averages to about 800,000 individual shipments of HazMat per day, of which 300,000 are shipments of petroleum/flammable–combustible liquids. This paper presents a temporal trend study (1995–2004) of 2145 HazMat incidents occurring through the transportation of flammable/combustible liquids. The study also correlates between HazMat incidents and distances between shipment origin and incident location. These distances attained through great circle calculations since the data compilation did not allow for the identification of specific routes taken in commodity transport. Findings of this study illustrate a bimodal distribution of frequency as a function of the logarithm of the Distance with first mode (less than 105 miles) mean of 24 [km] and second mode mean of 1061 [km]. Additionally, transport phase introduced no significance to the distribution of frequencies.     

Prenatal ascertainment of triploidy by maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening

We report our experience in ascertaining fetal triploidy during routine maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) screening. Three cases were identified after elevated MSAFP tests. Two of the three had normal amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFAFP). The third had amniocentesis too late for AFAFP interpretation. Three additional cases were detected by amniocentesis without prior MSAFP screening and none had an elevated AFAFP. A literature review revealed eight triploid fetuses detected as a result of an elevated MSAFP. Of the five with AFAFP quantitation, only one had an abnormal value and the elevation was minimal. In these 14 cases from our own and other reports, ultrasound findings of placental and fetal abnormalities were often noted, but a pattern diagnostic of triploidy was not present. We conclude that, for optimal prenatal detection of triploidy, fetal karyotyping should be included when an amniocentesis is performed for elevated MSAFP.     

Reduction in residential chromium following site remediation

The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of chromate production waste site remediation on residential Cr concentrations in house dust. Twenty-three homes in Jersey City, NJ, were identified as having had high (> 500 micrograms/gm, median 739 micrograms/gm), medium (100-400 micrograms/gm, median 245 micrograms/gm), or low (< 100 micrograms/gm, median 48 micrograms/gm) Cr in house dust during a study conducted in 1992-1993 prior to site remediation. House dust samples were collected on four visits from each home between November 1996 and February 1998, extracted with HNO3, and analyzed for Cr with an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer. Homes that had low Cr concentrations in 1992-1993 continued to have low Cr concentrations (median 1 microgram/g). In contrast, substantial declines in Cr concentrations were found in the house dust collected from homes located near the remediated waste sites: previously high-level homes had a median of 50 micrograms/g and mid-level homes had a median of 34 micrograms/g. Site remediation had a beneficial effect on household loadings of Cr, since no differences in post-remediation house dust Cr concentrations were found among the three groups.