Local perspectives on regional challenges: jellyfish proliferation and fish stock management along the Israeli Mediterranean coast

The composition and abundance of marine biota in Israeli marine ecosystems are affected by natural and anthropogenic pressures, including blooms of non-indigenous jellyfish and overfishing. While overfishing is itself a major stressor of fish stocks, it appears that jellyfish may be outcompeting fish for scarce planktonic food resources. Beyond this direct impact on fisheries, jellyfish–ecosystem interactions are also important because of the disturbance they cause to multiple users of marine and coastal resources. This paper documents the concurrent changes in the composition of marine biotic communities, including jellyfish proliferation and dwindling stocks of endemic, commercially valuable fish and the rising rate of bottom trawling in Israeli fisheries. The capacity to deal directly with jellyfish is limited by lack of knowledge about their ecology. Therefore, we suggest that bolstering fish stocks and increasing their competitive advantage in the food web may be instrumental in limiting jellyfish blooms. Coordination of fishing and conservation policies is recommended, as are modifications to marine waste management and deployment of submerged artificial substrates.     

Evaluation of air quality zone classification methods based on ambient air concentration exposure

Air quality zones are used by regulatory authorities to implement ambient air standards in order to protect human health. Air quality measurements at discrete air monitoring stations are critical tools to determine whether an air quality zone complies with local air quality standards or is noncompliant. This study presents a novel approach for evaluation of air quality zone classification methods by breaking the concentration distribution of a pollutant measured at an air monitoring station into compliance and exceedance probability density functions (PDFs) and then using Monte Carlo analysis with the Central Limit Theorem to estimate long-term exposure. The purpose of this paper is to compare the risk associated with selecting one ambient air classification approach over another by testing the possible exposure an individual living within a zone may face. The chronic daily intake (CDI) is utilized to compare different pollutant exposures over the classification duration of 3 years between two classification methods. Historical data collected from air monitoring stations in Kuwait are used to build representative models of 1-hr NO₂ and 8-hr O₃ within a zone that meets the compliance requirements of each method. The first method, the “3 Strike” method, is a conservative approach based on a winner-take-all approach common with most compliance classification methods, while the second, the 99% Rule method, allows for more robust analyses and incorporates long-term trends. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to model the CDI for each pollutant and each method with the zone at a single station and with multiple stations. The model assumes that the zone is already in compliance with air quality standards over the 3 years under the different classification methodologies. The model shows that while the CDI of the two methods differs by 2.7% over the exposure period for the single station case, the large number of samples taken over the duration period impacts the sensitivity of the statistical tests, causing the null hypothesis to fail. Local air quality managers can use either methodology to classify the compliance of an air zone, but must accept that the 99% Rule method may cause exposures that are statistically more significant than the 3 Strike method.

Implications: A novel method using the Central Limit Theorem and Monte Carlo analysis is used to directly compare different air standard compliance classification methods by estimating the chronic daily intake of pollutants. This method allows air quality managers to rapidly see how individual classification methods may impact individual population groups, as well as to evaluate different pollutants based on dosage and exposure when complete health impacts are not known.     

Prenatal ascertainment of triploidy by maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening

We report our experience in ascertaining fetal triploidy during routine maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) screening. Three cases were identified after elevated MSAFP tests. Two of the three had normal amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFAFP). The third had amniocentesis too late for AFAFP interpretation. Three additional cases were detected by amniocentesis without prior MSAFP screening and none had an elevated AFAFP. A literature review revealed eight triploid fetuses detected as a result of an elevated MSAFP. Of the five with AFAFP quantitation, only one had an abnormal value and the elevation was minimal. In these 14 cases from our own and other reports, ultrasound findings of placental and fetal abnormalities were often noted, but a pattern diagnostic of triploidy was not present. We conclude that, for optimal prenatal detection of triploidy, fetal karyotyping should be included when an amniocentesis is performed for elevated MSAFP.     

Reduction in residential chromium following site remediation

The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of chromate production waste site remediation on residential Cr concentrations in house dust. Twenty-three homes in Jersey City, NJ, were identified as having had high (> 500 micrograms/gm, median 739 micrograms/gm), medium (100-400 micrograms/gm, median 245 micrograms/gm), or low (< 100 micrograms/gm, median 48 micrograms/gm) Cr in house dust during a study conducted in 1992-1993 prior to site remediation. House dust samples were collected on four visits from each home between November 1996 and February 1998, extracted with HNO3, and analyzed for Cr with an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer. Homes that had low Cr concentrations in 1992-1993 continued to have low Cr concentrations (median 1 microgram/g). In contrast, substantial declines in Cr concentrations were found in the house dust collected from homes located near the remediated waste sites: previously high-level homes had a median of 50 micrograms/g and mid-level homes had a median of 34 micrograms/g. Site remediation had a beneficial effect on household loadings of Cr, since no differences in post-remediation house dust Cr concentrations were found among the three groups.     

The contribution of azo dyes to the mutagenic activity of the Cristais River

To verify whether dyes emitted within the discharge of a dye processing plant were contributing to the mutagenicity repeatedly found in the Cristais River, Sao Paulo, Brazil, we chemically characterized the following mutagenic samples: the treated industrial effluent, raw and treated water, and the sludge produced by a Drinking Water Treatment Plant (DWTP) located approximately 6 km from the industrial discharge. Considering that 20% of the dyes used for coloring activities might be lost to wastewaters and knowing that several dyes have mutagenic activity, we decided to analyze the samples for the presence of dyes. Thin layer chromatographic analysis indicated the presence of three prevalent dyes in all samples, except for the drinking water. This combination of dyes corresponded to a commercial product used by the industry, and it tested positive in the Salmonella assay. The structures of the dye components were determined using proton magnetic resonance and mass spectrometric (MS) methods, and the dyes were tested for mutagenicity. The blue component was identified as the C.I. Disperse Blue 373, the violet as C.I. Disperse Violet 93, and the orange as C.I. Disperse Orange 37. The dyes showed mutagenic responses of 6300, 4600, and 280 revertants/microg for YG1041 with S9 respectively. A bioassay-directed fractionation/chemical analysis showed that the C.I. Disperse Blue 373 contributed 55% of the mutagenic activity of the DWTP sludge. We showed that these dyes contributed to the mutagenic activity found in the Cristais River environmental samples analyzed and are indirectly affecting the quality of the related drinking water. Therefore, we believe that this type of discharge should be more thoroughly characterized chemically and toxicologically. Additionally, human and ecological risks associated with the release of dye processing plant effluents should be more fully investigated, especially where the resultant water is taken for human consumption.     

Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: A comparison of stochastic gradient boosting,generalized additive models,and tree-based methods

Many efforts are underway to produce broad-scale forest attribute maps by modelling forest class and structure variables collected in forest inventories as functions of satellite-based and biophysical information. Typically, variants of classification and regression trees implemented in Rulequest's^© See5 and Cubist (for binary and continuous responses, respectively) are the tools of choice in many of these applications. These tools are widely used in large remote sensing applications, but are not easily interpretable, do not have ties with survey estimation methods, and use proprietary unpublished algorithms. Consequently, three alternative modelling techniques were compared for mapping presence and basal area of 13 species located in the mountain ranges of Utah, USA. The modelling techniques compared included the widely used See5/Cubist, generalized additive models (GAMs), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Model performance was evaluated using independent test data sets. Evaluation criteria for mapping species presence included specificity, sensitivity, Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC). Evaluation criteria for the continuous basal area variables included correlation and relative mean squared error. For predicting species presence (setting thresholds to maximize Kappa), SGB had higher values for the majority of the species for specificity and Kappa, while GAMs had higher values for the majority of the species for sensitivity. In evaluating resultant AUC values, GAM and/or SGB models had significantly better results than the See5 models where significant differences could be detected between models. For nine out of 13 species, basal area prediction results for all modelling techniques were poor (correlations less than 0.5 and relative mean squared errors greater than 0.8), but SGB provided the most stable predictions in these instances. SGB and Cubist performed equally well for modelling basal area for three species with moderate prediction success, while all three modelling tools produced comparably good predictions (correlation of 0.68 and relative mean squared error of 0.56) for one species.     

On estimating air pollution control benefits from land value studies

This paper deals with some unresolved issues in interpreting empirical property value/air pollution studies. A model is developed in which it is shown that in general regressions of property values on pollution variables do not identify the demand curve for clean air. However since the first derivative of the observed rent function is a locus of household equilibrium marginal willingnesses to pay, aggregate benefits can be calculated directly. The possibilities for obtaining approximate measures of aggregate benefits for nonmarginal changes in air quality are also discussed.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides and chlorobenzenes content of livers from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) caught off Halifax Nova Scotia

The mean levels ± s.d., (ranges) of organochlorines, pesticides, chlorobenzenes and polychlorinated biphenyl were determined in the livers of 100 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) caught off the east coast of Canada in 1980 and were as follows: PCB 1.71±0.90 (0.24–4.33); p,p-DDE 0.28±0.15 (0.01–0.84); p,p-DDD 0.10±0.09 (trace-0.84); p,p-DDT 0.15±0.09 (ND-0.58); -HCH 0.06±0.02 (trace-0.10); -HCH (ND-trace); heptachlor 0.02±0.01 (ND-0.04); heptachlor epoxide 0.15±0.37 (ND-2.16); dieldrin 0.06±0.11 (ND-0.71); hexachlorobenzene 0.02±0.01 (trace-0.05) mg kg^–1 (wet wt.). The levels of these compounds in 1980 have not changed over the previous eight years with the exception of PCB and the DDT group where there appears to be a general decline between 1972 and 1975 with no significant change thereafter.     

Frequency analysis of hazardous material transportation incidents as a function of distance from origin to incident location

According to the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT), more than 3.1 billion tons of hazardous materials (HazMat) are shipped within the United States annually. This averages to about 800,000 individual shipments of HazMat per day, of which 300,000 are shipments of petroleum/flammable–combustible liquids. This paper presents a temporal trend study (1995–2004) of 2145 HazMat incidents occurring through the transportation of flammable/combustible liquids. The study also correlates between HazMat incidents and distances between shipment origin and incident location. These distances attained through great circle calculations since the data compilation did not allow for the identification of specific routes taken in commodity transport. Findings of this study illustrate a bimodal distribution of frequency as a function of the logarithm of the Distance with first mode (less than 105 miles) mean of 24 [km] and second mode mean of 1061 [km]. Additionally, transport phase introduced no significance to the distribution of frequencies.     

Methods for joint inference from panel survey and demographic data

A number of methods for joint inference from animal abundance and demographic data have been proposed in recent years, each with its own advantages. A new approach to analyzing panel survey and demographic data simultaneously is described. The approach fits population-dynamics models to the survey data, rather than to a single index of abundance derived from them and thus avoids disadvantages inherent in analyzing such an index. The methodology is developed and illustrated with British Lapwing data, and the results are compared with those obtained from existing approaches. The estimates of demographic parameters and population indices are similar for all methods. The results of a simulation study show that the new method performs well in terms of mean squared error.