Development of a probabilistic blood lead prediction model

A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.     

The effects of male and female genotype on variance in male fertilization success in the red flour beetle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tribolium castaneum</Emphasis>)

The number of eggs fertilized by a male at any given copulation (fertilization success) is affected by a large number of factors. Male insemination and sperm competition success and various female structures and/or processes that bias paternity in favor of some males over others (cryptic female choice) are all likely to affect fertilization success. We suggest that more comprehensive measures of male fertilization success can increase our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. To improve our understanding of the importance of various sources of variance in male fertilization success, we conducted a series of experiments using flour beetles. Different wild-type strains were used in reciprocal double mating experiments, against a phenotypic marker strain. We assessed the relative effects of female genotype, male genotype and mating order on independent and inclusive measures of male defense ability ( P ₁), male offense ability ( P ₂), and female remating behavior. Female genotype influenced both P ₁ and P ₂, and male genotype interacted strongly with female genotype in its effect on P ₂. We also documented an interaction between female and male genotypes in the effects of mating on female remating behavior, such that females tended to remate most rapidly when mated to males of their own genotype. It is clear from our experiments that cryptic female choice influences the pattern of fertilization success in flour beetles, and we suggest that cryptic female choice may often be an important component of postcopulatory sexual selection. Future investigations would benefit from studying the multiple components of variance in male fertilization success.     

Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

The population biology of the living coelacanth studied over 21 years

Between 1986 and 2009 nine submersible and remote-operated vehicle expeditions were carried out to study the population biology of the coelacanth Latimeria chalumnae in the Comoro Islands, located in the western Indian Ocean. Latimeria live in large overlapping home ranges that can be occupied for as long as 21 years. Most individuals are confined to relatively small home ranges, resting in the same caves during the day. One hundred and forty five coelacanths are individually known, and we estimate the total population size of Grande Comore as approximately 300–400 adult individuals. The local population inhabiting a census area along an 8-km section of coastline remained stable for at least 18 years. Using LASER-assisted observations, we recorded length frequencies between 100 and 200 cm total length and did not encounter smaller-bodied individuals (<100 cm total length). It appears that coelacanth recruitment in the observation areas occur mainly by immigrating adults. We estimate that the mean numbers of deaths and newcomers are 3–4 individuals per year, suggesting that longevity may exceed 100 years. The domestic fishery represents a threat to the long-term survival of coelacanths in the study area. Recent changes in the local fishery include a decrease in the abundance of the un-motorized canoes associated with exploitation of coelacanths and an increase in motorized canoes. Exploitation rates have fallen in recent years, and by 2000, had fallen to lowest ever reported. Finally, future fishery developments are discussed.     

Biomarkers of environmental contaminants in the coastal waters of Estonia (Baltic Sea): effects on eelpouts (Zoarces viviparus)

The eastern Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast is heavily navigated by numerous cargo ships and oil tankers. Hundreds of accidents and oil spills happen yearly in this area. Yet, there is a lack of data concerning the distribution and effects of the environmental contaminants, especially polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Different parts of the Baltic Sea have different levels of contamination; therefore a wide range of monitoring stations in coastal areas in the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga were chosen. The aim of the present research was to document the responses of chosen biomarkers of environmental contaminants in different unstudied areas of the Estonian coastal sea. During 2009 and 2010 we measured PAH metabolites, EROD activities, geno- and cytotoxicity, histology, parasites and other biomarkers from the eelpout (Zoarces viviparus), a resident benthic fish species. The results showed that fish from the Gulf of Riga emitted lower levels of fluorescence in fixed wavelength analyses (representing equivalents of PAH metabolites in bile and urine), and consistently, showed less geno- and cytotoxicity and parasite infection, higher liver somatic index (LSI) and a higher condition factor (CF) than fish inhabiting areas close to the Baltic proper and in the Gulf of Finland. The results point to the effect of long-range contaminant transportation, whether atmospheric or hydrodynamic, and also to the intensive shipping activity in international routes. This study fills the gap of knowledge in this area that has persisted until now. Nevertheless, more studies in this area on the different groups of contaminants are necessary, to specify the factors that are responsible for observed biological effects.     

Energy efficiency of substance and energy recovery of selected waste fractions

In order to reduce the ecological impact of resource exploitation, the EU calls for sustainable options to increase the efficiency and productivity of the utilization of natural resources. This target can only be achieved by considering resource recovery from waste comprehensively. However, waste management measures have to be investigated critically and all aspects of substance-related recycling and energy recovery have to be carefully balanced. This article compares recovery methods for selected waste fractions with regard to their energy efficiency.Whether material recycling or energy recovery is the most energy efficient solution, is a question of particular relevance with regard to the following waste fractions: paper and cardboard, plastics and biowaste and also indirectly metals. For the described material categories material recycling has advantages compared to energy recovery. In accordance with the improved energy efficiency of substance opposed to energy recovery, substance-related recycling causes lower emissions of green house gases.For the fractions paper and cardboard, plastics, biowaste and metals it becomes apparent, that intensification of the separate collection systems in combination with a more intensive use of sorting technologies can increase the extent of material recycling. Collection and sorting systems must be coordinated. The objective of the overall system must be to achieve an optimum of the highest possible recovery rates in combination with a high quality of recyclables.The energy efficiency of substance related recycling of biowaste can be increased by intensifying the use of anaerobic technologies. In order to increase the energy efficiency of the overall system, the energy efficiencies of energy recovery plants must be increased so that the waste unsuitable for substance recycling is recycled or treated with the highest possible energy yield.     

Ein mimetisches Kollektiv — Beobachtungen an Fischschwärmen,die Seeigel nachahmen

In the Indian Ocean, the fish Siphamia argentea usually lives in small groups within the interradial spaces of the sea urchin Astropyga radiata. The fish has a colouration similar to that of the sea urchin and is thus protected from predators both by camouflage and the physical barrier of the sea urchin's spines. If the fish do not keep to the interradial spaces, the urchin can prick them with its spines. When the fish groups become too large, there is not enough space for them in these protected interradial spaces. Individuals which cannot be accomodated, form a dense group around the sea urchin which resembles a large urchin. Such dense groups are also known to occur in the fish Plotosus anguillaris where the individuals actually touch each other. The relationship between fish and sea urchin is described and discussed as an example of collective mimetic behaviour. This is the first record of collective mimetic behaviour in a marine environment. It is difficult to decide whether this is mimicry or mimese, as detailed research on the predators of both the sea urchin and the fish has not been carried out.