可变模糊评价法在洪涝灾情评价中的应用

灾情评价实质上是一个模式识别问题.以往的灾情评价模型,虽解决了各单项指标灾情等级评估结果的不相容问题,但往往不能检验所给结果的准确性.基于可变模糊集理论,采用可变模糊评价模型可以科学、合理地确定样本指标对各级指标标准区间的相对隶属度和相对隶属函数,并且能够通过变换参数(α与P)变化模型进行评价.通过对多个评价结果进行比较分析,可以合理地确定出样本的评价等级.同时,由于该模型确定的灾级是连续的实数值,因而提高了灾情等级评价的灾级分辨率.最后将该方法应用于河南省洪涝灾情的综合评价中.应用实例表明,该模型计算简便,评价结果可信度高,可推广应用到其它灾情等级评估中.     

中国自然保护区可持续管理模式探讨——伦敦自然保护区管理模式借鉴

近年来,世界各地自然保护区迅速发展,如何有效持续地管理这些自然保护区成为一个重要的问题。文章分析了我国自然保护区现有管理模式的特点与存在的问题,简要介绍了伦敦自然保护区的管理模式现状,根据我国的实际情况,笔者认为中国的自然保护区应采用强制式和完全参与合作式相结合的管理模式,并提出了几点管理模式的改革建议。     

Dissipation and residue of triforine in strawberry and soil

Two independent field trials were performed in Guangdong and Hubei, China in 2011 to investigate the dissipation and residue levels of triforine in strawberry and soil. A fast and simple method using gas chromatography with electron capture detector was developed and validated to determine triforine levels in strawberry and soil. The average recovery of triforine in strawberry ranged from 87.46 to 104.32 % with a relative standard deviation (RSD) of 0.72 to 4.54 %; that in soil ranged from 83.82 to 103.01 % with an RSD of 3.89 to 4.36 %. The limit of quantification of the proposed method was 0.01 mg/kg for both strawberry and soil. The results suggest that the triforine dissipation curves followed the first-order kinetic. The half-lives of triforine in strawberry from Guangdong and Hubei were 3.58 and 4.42 days, respectively; those in soil were 3.53 and 4.10 days, respectively. The terminal residues of triforine in strawberry ranged from 0.032 to 0.264 mg/kg at preharvest intervals of 0.5, 1, and 3 days. These values are lower than the maximum residue limit of 1 mg/kg in strawberry set by the Codex Alimentarius Commission.     

Risk assessment of trace elements in cultured freshwater fishes from Jiangxi province,China

The levels of trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) in eight species of cultured freshwater fishes from Jiangxi province were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy. All the studied trace element levels in fish muscles from Jiangxi province did not exceed Chinese national standard and European Union standard, and they were often lower than previous studies. The calculated target hazard quotient values for all the studied trace elements in fish samples were much less than 1, suggesting that the studied trace elements in fish muscles from Jiangxi province had not pose obvious health hazards to consumers. As and Cd concentrations in northern snakehead were much higher than that in other fishes, demonstrating that this fish species could be valuable as a bioindicator of As and Cd in environmental surveys. In addition, the highest concentrations of Fe, Zn, and moderate contents of other essential trace elements in crucian carp indicated that crucian carp could be a good nutrient source of essential trace elements for human health.     

Molecular detection of three gastroenteritis viruses in urban surface waters in Beijing and correlation with levels of fecal indicator bacteria

To assess the presence of three gastroenteritis viruses responsible for human acute gastroenteritis in surface water, a 1-year study was carried out in the city of Beijing, China. A total of 108 urban surface water samples were collected from nine collection sites which were defined with a global positioning system in rivers or lakes from September 2006 to August 2007. The water samples were subjected to virus concentration using an HA electronegative filter, followed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for rotavirus (RV) astrovirus (AV), and norovirus (NV). It showed that the number of viruses detected in water samples from different sites was variable, totaling 63 virus strains, with rotavirus (48.1%) verified as the most prevalent detected, followed by astrovirus (AV, 5.6%), and norovirus (NV, 4.6%). RV was also quantified by real-time PCR and the concentration of RV ranged from 0 to 18.27 genome copies·L(-1). And the distributions of RV in surface water were abundant in cold weather (from September to February) while less prevailing in warm weather (from March to August). The high detection rate of RV we encountered in this study provided convincing evidence that RV circulated at a certain frequency in the Beijing population. There was no statistically significant correlation between RV levels and both fecal coliform (R (2)?=?0.02) and Enterococcus faecalis (R (2)?=?0.02) densities. Our study suggests prolonged virus persistence in aquatic environments and emphasizes the enteric virus group as the most reliable for environmental monitoring.     

Dynamics of the lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China, since late nineteenth century

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin have the most representative and largest concentration of freshwater lakes in China. However, the size and number of these lakes have changed considerably over the past century due to the natural and anthropogenic impact. The lakes, larger than 10 km² in size, were chosen from relief maps and remotely sensed images in 1875, 1950, 1970, 1990, 2000, and 2008 to study the dynamics of lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin and to examine the causes and consequences of these changes. Results indicated that there was a dramatic reduction in lake areas, which decreased by 7,841.2 km² (42.64 %) during the study period (1875–2008), and the number of lakes in this region changed moderately. Meanwhile, a large number of lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin were directly converted into paddy fields, ponds, building lands, or other land-use types over the study period. Therefore, all kinds of lake reclamation should be identified as the major driving factors for the loss of lake in this region. Furthermore, flooding, soil erosion, and sedimentation were also the main factors which triggered lake changes in different periods. Some wetland conservation and restoration projects have been implemented since the 1970s, but they have not reversed the lake degradation. These findings were of great importance to managers involved in making policy for the conservation of lake ecosystems and the utilization of lake resources.     

Spatial and seasonal distribution of nitrogen in marsh soils of a typical floodplain wetland in Northeast China

Horizontal and profile distributions of nitrogen in marsh soils in different seasons were studied in a typical site within the Erbaifangzi wetland in Northeast China. Results showed that there was higher spatial heterogeneity for nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^--_{3}^{-}-N) and ammonium nitrogen (NH₄⁺_{4}^{+}–N), as well as available nitrogen (AN), in surface soils in July compared to that in September. Relative to July, the mean nitrogen contents in surface soils were slightly higher in September; however, in November, soils contained significantly lower NO₃^--_{3}^{-}-N and NH₄⁺_{4}^{+}–N, higher AN, organic nitrogen (Org-N), and total nitrogen (TN). Except for mineral nitrogen, no significant differences were observed between Org-N and TN contents in September and November. Nitrogen contents generally declined exponentially with depth along soil profiles in three sampling dates (July, September, and November), except for a significant accumulation peak of NO₃^--_{3}^{-}-N at the 20–30 cm depth in September. However, NH₄⁺_{4}^{+}–N contents showed a vertical alternation of “increasing and decreasing” in both July and September, while nearly kept constant with depth in November. The depth ranking of nitrogen showed the shallowest distribution for AN, followed by Org-N and TN, while deeper distributions for NO₃^--_{3}^{-}-N and NH₄⁺_{4}^{+}–N. TN, Org-N, and AN were significantly correlated with soil organic matter and total phosphorus. Soil pH values were significantly correlated with TN and AN contents in surface soils. Clay contents showed significant correlations with nitrogen contents except for NO₃^--_{3}^{-}-N in surface soils and NH₄⁺_{4}^{+}–N in profile soils. However, soil moisture was not significantly correlated with nitrogen contents among all soil samples.     

Landscape-based upstream-downstream prevalence of land-use/cover change drivers in southeastern rift escarpment of Ethiopia

Characterized by high population density on a rugged topography, the Gedeo-Abaya landscape dominantly contains a multi-strata traditional agroforests showing the insight of Gedeo farmers on natural resource management practices. Currently, this area has been losing its resilience and is becoming unable to sustain its inhabitants. Based on both RS-derived and GIS-computed land-use/cover changes (LUCC) as well as socioeconomic validations, this article explored the LUCC and agroecological-based driver patterns in Gedeo-Abaya landscape from 1986 to 2015. A combination of geo-spatial technology and cross-sectional survey design were employed to detect the drivers behind these changes. The article discussed that LUCC and the prevalence of drivers are highly diverse and vary throughout agroecological zones. Except for the population, most downstream top drivers are perceived as insignificant in the upstream region and vice versa. In the downstream, land-use/cover (LUC) classes are more dynamic, diverse, and challenged by nearly all anticipated drivers than are upstream ones. Agroforestry LUC has been increasing (by 25% of its initial cover) and is becoming the predominant cover type, although socioeconomic analysis and related findings show its rapid LUC modification. A rapid reduction of woodland/shrubland (63%) occurred in the downstream, while wetland/marshy land increased threefold (158%), from 1986 to 2015 with annual change rates of -?3.7 and +?6%, respectively. Land degradation induced by changes in land use is a serious problem in Africa, especially in the densely populated sub-Saharan regions such as Ethiopia (FAO 2015). Throughout the landscape, LUCC is prominently affecting land-use system of the study landscape due to population pressure in the upstream region and drought/rainfall variability, agribusiness investment, and charcoaling in the downstream that necessitate urgent action.     

A mini review of fluoride-induced apoptotic pathways

Fluorine or fluoride can have toxic effects on bone tissue and soft tissue at high concentrations. These negative effects include but not limited to cytotoxicity, immunotoxicity, blood toxicity, and oxidative damage. Apoptosis plays an important role in fluoride-induced toxicity of kidney, liver, spleen, thymus, bursa of Fabricius, cecal tonsil, and cultured cells. Here, apoptosis activated by high level of fluoride has been systematically reviewed, focusing on three pathways: mitochondrion-mediated, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress-mediated, and death receptor-mediated pathways. However, very limited reports are focused on the death receptor-mediated apoptosis pathways in the fluoride-induced apoptosis. Therefore, understanding and discovery of more pathways and molecular mechanisms of fluoride-induced apoptosis may contribute to designing measures for preventing fluoride toxicity.