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861.
Ke‐Sheng Cheng Hui‐Chung Yeh Ching‐Yuan Liou 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2000,36(3):511-521
ABSTRACT: Predicting the likelihood of a drought markedly enhances the efficiency of reservoir operations. This study applies the kriging method and time series analysis to predict inflows to Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. A subsequent reservoir operation simulation is employed to determine the drought lead time (DLT), the time before the onset of a drought. A more efficient reservoir operational strategy can be established with the aid of DLT and the probability of successful drought prediction (P s). Simulation results of reservoir operation over a period of three decades demonstrate that, at one month DLT, the kriging approach achieves 0.86 of P s for moderate droughts and 0.94 of P s for severe droughts. The kriging approach generally outperformed the time series approach in terms of DLT, P s of drought prediction, and the number of correctly predicted drought events. 相似文献
862.
Importance of Baseline Specification in Evaluating Conservation Interventions and Achieving No Net Loss of Biodiversity 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. W. BULL A. GORDON E. A. LAW K. B. SUTTLE E. J. MILNER‐GULLAND 《Conservation biology》2014,28(3):799-809
There is an urgent need to improve the evaluation of conservation interventions. This requires specifying an objective and a frame of reference from which to measure performance. Reference frames can be baselines (i.e., known biodiversity at a fixed point in history) or counterfactuals (i.e., a scenario that would have occurred without the intervention). Biodiversity offsets are interventions with the objective of no net loss of biodiversity (NNL). We used biodiversity offsets to analyze the effects of the choice of reference frame on whether interventions met stated objectives. We developed 2 models to investigate the implications of setting different frames of reference in regions subject to various biodiversity trends and anthropogenic impacts. First, a general analytic model evaluated offsets against a range of baseline and counterfactual specifications. Second, a simulation model then replicated these results with a complex real world case study: native grassland offsets in Melbourne, Australia. Both models showed that achieving NNL depended upon the interaction between reference frame and background biodiversity trends. With a baseline, offsets were less likely to achieve NNL where biodiversity was decreasing than where biodiversity was stable or increasing. With a no‐development counterfactual, however, NNL was achievable only where biodiversity was declining. Otherwise, preventing development was better for biodiversity. Uncertainty about compliance was a stronger determinant of success than uncertainty in underlying biodiversity trends. When only development and offset locations were considered, offsets sometimes resulted in NNL, but not across an entire region. Choice of reference frame determined feasibility and effort required to attain objectives when designing and evaluating biodiversity offset schemes. We argue the choice is thus of fundamental importance for conservation policy. Our results shed light on situations in which biodiversity offsets may be an inappropriate policy instrument Importancia de la Especificación de Línea de Base en la Evaluación de Intervenciones de Conservación y la Obtención de Ninguna Pérdida Neta de la Biodiversidad 相似文献
863.
This paper develops an analytical framework to investigate the relationship between water and armed conflict, and applies it to the ‘Summer War’ of 2006 between Israel and Lebanon (Hezbollah). The framework broadens and deepens existing classifications by assessing the impact of acts of war as indiscriminate or targeted, and evaluating them in terms of international norms and law, in particular International Humanitarian Law (IHL). In the case at hand, the relationship is characterised by extensive damage in Lebanon to drinking water infrastructure and resources. This is seen as a clear violation of the letter and the spirit of IHL, while the partial destruction of more than 50 public water towers compromises water rights and national development goals. The absence of pre‐war environmental baselines makes it difficult to gauge the impact on water resources, suggesting a role for those with first‐hand knowledge of the hostilities to develop a more effective response before, during, and after armed conflict. 相似文献
864.
Pierre‐Nicolas Carron Philippe Reigner Laurent Vallotton Jean‐Gabriel Clouet Claude Danzeisen Mathias Zürcher Bertrand Yersin 《Disasters》2014,38(2):434-450
In case of a major incident or disaster, the advance medical rescue command needs to manage several essential tasks simultaneously. These include the rapid deployment of ambulance, police, fire and evacuation services, and their coordinated activity, as well as triage and emergency medical care on site. The structure of such a medical rescue command is crucial for the successful outcome of medical evacuation at major incidents. However, little data has been published on the nature and structure of the command itself. This study presents a flexible approach to command structure, with two command heads: one emergency physician and one experienced paramedic. This approach is especially suitable for Switzerland, whose federal system allows for different structures in each canton. This article examines the development of these structures and their efficiency, adaptability and limitations with respect to major incident response in the French‐speaking part of the country. 相似文献
865.
A field hospital overseas requires various types of communication equipment. This study presents the communications equipment used by three Israeli field hospital delegations to earthquake sites at Adapazari, Turkey, in 1999, Port‐au‐Prince, Haiti, in 2010 and Minamisanriku, Japan, in 2011. The delegations to Turkey and Haiti were relatively large (105–230 personnel) and were on the site early (three to four days after each event). The 55‐person delegation to Japan arrived later and was established as an outpatient community hospital. Standard military VHF radios were the only effective tool up to 5 km, until cellular coverage was regained (1–2 weeks after each event). International communication was good. While short‐wave communication (telephone and Internet) was used in Turkey, a direct satellite channel was set up in Haiti. In Japan, BGAN Inmarsat provided efficient Wi‐Fi for all needs. Motorola walkie talkies were not efficient beyond the immediate vicinity. This paper recommends continued use of military‐specification equipment alongside newer modalities, particularly in situations where infrastructure is damaged. 相似文献
866.
Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation
Jessica Mercer Ilan Kelman Francisco do Rosario Abilio de Deus de Jesus Lima Augusto da Silva Anna‐Maija Beloff Alex McClean 《Disasters》2014,38(4):690-718
Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths. 相似文献
867.
Small amounts of bivalent cations, usually provided by Mg2+, are in the living cell necessary for the biological activity of t‐RNA as these bivalent cations influence the tertiary and secondary structure of this globular polynucleotide. In context with the discussed possibility of carcinogenic actions of ingested Cd it is of particular interest to check whether there exist specific strong interactions of this toxic heavy metal with nucleic acids. Therefore, the binding of the toxic heavy metal ion Cd2+ and the essential heavy metal ion Mn2+ to t‐RNA and for comparison to DNA and the polynucleotides poly‐U, poly‐A and poly‐A‐poly‐U has been studied. Free metal ion concentrations have been determined by differential pulse polararography. Association constants and the number of binding sites have been evaluated by the Scatchard method and alternatively according to a simple electrostatic model of the polyelectrolytes. With the Scatchard method for t‐RNA and all polynucleotides with helical structure two different binding sites of different strength are observed. Those with higher association constants are assigned to the helical parts of t‐RNA. Interaction sites with low association constants correspond to the parts with no ordered tertiary structure, as their exclusive occurrence for poly‐U, having a completely stochastic coil structure, reflects. The values of the association constants for the stronger and weaker association sites are in the respective polynucleotides for both investigated bivalent metal ions of comparable magnitude. This emphasizes that the interaction is essentially of electrostatic nature and depends primarily on the charge of the interacting species. Thus the specific strong interaction of Cd by the intercalation into the tertiary structure of nucleic acids or by chelation of their base units can be ruled out as one possibility for carcinogenity of Cd. Moreover, under physiological conditions the high excess of competitive Mg2+ will suppress the interaction of Cd based on electrostatic forces. 相似文献
868.
A study was performed comparing ambient air monitoring (AM) and biological monitoring (BM) in order to evaluate the reliability of passive sampling (PS) in occupational medicine. Five groups of persons (total number = 188) exposed to tetrachloroethene, isopropanol, toluene, xylene and styrene at the workplace were examined. AM was performed over several hours using one or two brands of passive samplers (Monitor 3500 and/or ORSA 5). BM includes the determination of the solvent and specific metabolites resp. in blood or urine samples taken at the end of workshift. On the basis of our results we recommend that PS can supply relevant data for the estimation of external exposure to several solvents like chlorinated‐ and aromatic‐hydrocarbons. 相似文献
869.
Very polar oil compounds are predominant in the resulting water soluble fraction (WSF) of crude oil, in agreement with their high solubility in seawater. Non‐volatile hydrocarbons represent only a low proportion of total soluble extracts. The experimental process we have achieved allows us to obtain quantitative and reproducible soluble oil extracts that could be used in ecotoxicological tests and for the study and the characterization of marine oil pollution. 相似文献
870.
Quantitative structure‐activity relationships of hydrophobic organic chemicals were studied based on equations we established. Results showed that observed toxicity of hydrophobic organic chemicals were correlated to two physical‐chemical parameters: reaction equilibrium constant of target molecule‐organic chemical; octanol/water partition coefficient. Regression results showed that the molecular connectivity index of first‐order was an ideal parameter instead of the equilibrium constant. Good relationships between toxicity data and the two parameters were found for three aquatic organisms with a wide range of chemicals. 相似文献