Should managed populations be monitored every year?

We often need to estimate the size of wild populations to determine the appropriate management action, for example, to set a harvest quota. Monitoring is usually planned under the assumption that it must be carried out at fixed intervals in time, typically annually, before the harvest quota is set. However, monitoring can be very expensive, and we should weigh the cost of monitoring against the improvement that it makes in decision making. A less costly alternative to monitoring annually is to predict the population size using a population model and information from previous surveys. In this paper, the problem of monitoring frequency is posed within a decision-theory framework. We discover that a monitoring regime that varies according to the state of the system can outperform fixed-interval monitoring. This idea is illustrated using data for a red kangaroo (Macropus rufus) population in South Australia. Whether or not one should monitor in a given year is dependent on the estimated population density in the previous year, the uncertainty in that population estimate, and past rainfall. We discover that monitoring is important when a model-based prediction of population density is very uncertain. This may occur if monitoring has not taken place for several years, or if rainfall has been above average. Monitoring is also important when prior information suggests that the population is near a critical threshold in population abundance. However, monitoring is less important when the optimal management action would not be altered by new information.     

Hierarchical population genetic structure in the commercially exploited shrimp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Crangon crangon</Emphasis> identified by AFLP analysis

The coastal shrimp Crangon crangon is an ecologically and commercially important species but there is limited knowledge of its genetic population structure. We utilised amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) to investigate population differentiation among eight sampling locations comprising paired sites from north- and south-western Britain, the eastern English Channel and the Baltic Sea. Initial AMOVA and cluster analysis suggested strong differentiation, but outlier analysis identified three loci that might be subject to selection, one of which showed significant latitudinal variation in allele frequencies. Following exclusion of these outlier loci, and also of a divergent, genetically-impoverished sample from the UK Bristol Channel, cluster analysis revealed three major groupings, corresponding to geographical regions: western Britain, the eastern English Channel and the Baltic Sea. AMOVA identified significant differentiation both within and among these regions, with similar variation explained by each hierarchical level. C. crangon shows greater genetic structuring than has been found in many decapod crustaceans studied to date, and our results are consistent with unstable population sizes and gene flow restricted by distance and probably also hydrographic features. Further investigation of temporal stability in population structure is required, but broad-scale homogeneity of fishery stocks should not be assumed.     

Farmers’ nutrient management practices in indigenous cropping systems in southern Cameroon

With increasing population densities, food production needs to be increased. A common response of farmers is to shorten fallow periods, which can lead to a decline in crop yields, due to incomplete nutrient replenishment. However, whether farmers change their management of soil and nutrients according to the fallow length is not known. A survey was carried out in southern Cameroon in 1995 to establish factors determining farmers’ nutrient management practices (NMPs). Three classes of indigenous NMPs were identified: crop placement, mulching, and the use of inputs. Crop placement comprised intentional cultivation of certain crops in ash patches or near to tree trunks and stumps. Mulching was done with weeds and crop residues, on the soil surface next to crops or in planting holes. Crop placement was found in 88.8% of fields and mulching in 57.4%, while inputs were used in only 1.7%. Nutrient management seemed to be restricted to an optimal allocation of crops to nutrient sources in the field.Relationships were weak between the frequency of crop placement or mulching and indices of land or labor availability. Fallow length seems to be negatively correlated to crop placement at rotten trunks or stumps or in ash patches and positively to placement near recently felled trees. Crop placement and mulching of crop residues were used less often in simplified crop associations than in traditional intercrops. Nutrient inputs were mainly given to monocrops. Application of purchased inputs concentrated on commercial crops.Most respondents knew the advantages and risks of currently practiced methods, but often lacked information on the use of locally available internal inputs (refuse, kitchen ash, manure). Application of internal inputs was considered too labor demanding. The use of purchased inputs was limited by high prices. Soil fertility was in most cases not regarded as a problem.     

Estimation of the nutrient inputs into river systems – experiences from German rivers

The nutrient discharges from point and diffuse sources in more than 200 German river basins were estimated for the periods 1983–1987 and 1993–1997 employing the MONERIS model. This model distinguishes between six diffuse pathways and point source emissions from waste water treatment plants and direct industrial discharges. It was estimated that the total nitrogen input into the German river systems amounts to about 819,000 t N year^–1 in the period 1993 to 1997. These emissions have decreased since the mid-eighties by about 266,000 t N year^–1, mainly caused by the reduction of point discharges. For phosphorus the emissions have been reduced by 56,290 t P year^–1 and amount to 37,250 t P year^–1 in the period 1993–1997. Based on emission data a retention module estimates riverine nutrient loads. The comparison of the model output with the observed loads shows a deviation as low as 30% and 50% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. The regional resolution of the model indicates the relative importance of different pathways for phosphorus and nitrogen input into river systems. Electronic Publication     

The variability of processes involved in transgene dispersal—case studies from Brassica and related genera

Background, aim, and scope

We strive to predict consequences of genetically modified plants (GMPs) being cultivated openly in the environment, as human and animal health, biodiversity, agricultural practise and farmers’ economy could be affected. Therefore, it is unfortunate that the risk assessment of GMPs is burdened by uncertainty. One of the reasons for the uncertainty is that the GMPs are interacting with the ecosystems at the release site thereby creating variability. This variability, e.g. in gene flow, makes consequence analysis difficult. The review illustrates the great uncertainty of results from gene-flow analysis.

Main features

Many independent experiments were performed on the individual processes in gene flow. The results comprise information both from laboratory, growth chambers and field trials, and they were generated using molecular or phenotypic markers and analysis of fitness parameters. Monitoring of the extent of spontaneous introgression in natural populations was also performed. Modelling was used as an additional tool to identify key parameters in gene flow.

Results

The GM plant may affect the environment directly or indirectly by dispersal of the transgene. Magnitude of the transgene dispersal will depend on the GM crop, the agricultural practise and the environment of the release site. From case-to-case these three factors provide a variability that is reflected in widely different likelihoods of transgene dispersal and fitness of introgressed plants. In the present review, this is illustrated through a bunch of examples mostly from our own research on oilseed rape, Brassica napus. In the Brassica cases, the variability affected all five main steps in the process of gene dispersal. The modelling performed suggests that in Brassica, differences in fitness among plant genome classes could be a dominant factor in the establishment and survival of introgressed populations.

Discussion

Up to now, experimental analyses have mainly focused on studying the many individual processes of gene flow. This can be criticised, as these experiments are normally carried out in widely different environments and with different genotypes, and thus providing bits and pieces difficult to assemble. Only few gene-flow studies have been performed in natural populations and over several plant generations, though this could give a more coherent and holistic view.

Conclusion

The variability inherent in the processes of gene flow in Brassica is apparent and remedies are wished for. One possibility is to expose the study species to additional experiments and monitoring, but this is costly and will likely not cover all possible scenarios. Another remedy is modelling gene flow. Modelling is a valuable tool in identifying key factors in the gene-flow process for which more knowledge is needed, and identifying parameters and processes which are relatively insensitive to change and therefore require less attention in future collections of data. But the interdependence between models and experimental data is extensive, as models depend on experimental data for their development or testing.

Recommendations

More and more transgenic varieties are being grown worldwide harbouring genes that might potentially affect the environment (e.g. drought tolerance, salt tolerance, disease tolerance, pharmaceutical genes). This calls for a thorough risk assessment. However, in Brassica, the limited and uncertain knowledge on gene flow is an obstacle to this. Modelling of gene flow should be optimised, and modelling outputs verified in targeted field studies and at the landscape level. Last but not least, it is important to remember that transgene flow in itself is not necessarily a thread, but it is the consequences of gene flow that may jeopardise the ecosystems and the agricultural production. This emphasises the importance of consequence analysis of genetically modified plants.     

The influence of colloid formation in a granite groundwater bentonite porewater mixing zone on radionuclide speciation

In the context of deep geological storage of high level nuclear waste the repository will be designed as multiple barrier system including bentonite as buffer/backfill material and the host rock formation as geological barrier. The engineered barrier (bentonite) will be in contact with the host rock formation and consequently it can be expected that bentonite porewater will mix with formation groundwater. We simulate in this study the mixing of Grimsel groundwater (glacial melt water) with synthetic Febex porewater (assuming already saturated state) in a batch-type study and investigate the formation of colloids by laser-induced breakdown detection (LIBD) and SEM-EDX as well as the changes in radionuclide (U, Th, Eu) speciation via ultrafiltration or via time-resolved laser fluorescence spectroscopy (TRLFS) analysis in the case of Cm(III). Based on PHREEQC saturation index (SI) calculations a precipitation of calcite might be expected at low Febex porewater (FPW) content (< 20%), fluorite precipitation at FPW contents < 60% and gibbsite precipitation at FPW contents above 10%. The colloids generated in the mixing zone aggregate when the synthetic FPW content exceeds 10%. LIBD analysis of the time-dependent colloid generation/aggregation revealed a low concentration of colloids to be stable with an estimated plateau value around 100–200 ppt and an average colloid diameter around 30 nm after 140 days reaction time at FPW admixture > 10%. SEM/EDX mostly identifies Al/Si containing colloidal phases and some sulfates could be found under certain admixture ratios. TRLFS studies show that the Cm speciation is strongly influenced by colloid formation in all solutions. In the Febex pore water/GGW mixing zone with high groundwater contents (> 80%) colloids are newly formed and Cm is almost quantitatively associated with most likely polysilicilic acid colloids.     

Pesticides in urban multiunit dwellings: hazard identification using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis

Many units in public housing or other low-income urban dwellings may have elevated pesticide residues, given recurring infestation, but it would be logistically and economically infeasible to sample a large number of units to identify highly exposed households to design interventions. Within this study, our aim was to devise a low-cost approach to identify homes in public housing with high levels of pesticide residues, using information that would allow the housing authority and residents to determine optimal strategies to reduce household exposures. As part of the Healthy Public Housing Initiative, we collected environmental samples from 42 public housing apartments in Boston, MA, in 2002 and 2003 and gathered housing characteristics; for example, household demographics and self-reported pesticide use information, considering information available with and without a home visit. Focusing on five organophosphate and pyrethroid pesticides, we used classification and regression tree analysis (CART) to disaggregate the pesticide concentration data into homogenous subsamples according to housing characteristics, which allowed us to identify households and associated networks impacted by the mismanagement of pesticides. The CART analysis demonstrated reasonable sensitivity and specificity given more extensive household information but generally poor performance using only information available without a home visit. Apartments with high concentrations of cyfluthrin, a pyrethroid of interest given that it is a restricted use pesticide, were more likely to be associated with Hispanic residents who resided in their current apartment for more than 5 yr, consistent with documented pesticide usage patterns. We conclude that using CART as an exploratory technique to better understand the home characteristics associated with elevated pesticide levels may be a viable approach for risk management in large multiunit housing developments.     

Remote Antarctic feeding ground important for east Australian humpback whales

Understanding the dynamics of population recovery is particularly complex when an organism has multiple, remote breeding and feeding grounds separated by one of the longest known migration routes. This study reports on the most comprehensive assessment of humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) movements between remote Antarctic waters south of New Zealand and east Australia (EA), and the migratory corridors and breeding grounds of Australia and Oceania. A total of 112 individual whales were identified; 57 from microsatellites and 61 by fluke with 23 % (n = 26) matched to sites outside Antarctica. Despite large datasets from other southern regions being included in the comparison, the whales were predominantly linked to EA (n = 24). Only two matches to the Oceania catalogues directly north was surprising; therefore the primary feeding grounds of these endangered whales still remain unknown. The confirmation of the Balleny Islands as an important feeding ground for EA whales could provide an insight into reasons behind the rapid recovery of this population. Determining the feeding grounds of Oceania’s whales may explain whether prey energetics or migration length are limiting factors to their recovery and will allow an understanding of future ecosystem changes in these whales.