Using decomposition rates to infer how far back tree populations can be reconstructed

To study forest dynamics without relying on the space-for-time substitution, one must be able to follow a population or stand of trees back or forward in time. The method of stand reconstruction looks back in time by aging all the live trees and aging and dating the time of death of dead standing and fallen trees. However, dead trees are lost by decomposition so the record becomes increasingly incomplete with passage of time. Here we present a model of the passage of trees from dead standing to dead decomposed but still datable to completely decomposed and thus undatable or lost. We then generalize a method for calculating the falling rate of dead trees originally proposed in 1985 by A. P. Gore, E. A. Johnson, and H. P. Lo. We do this by removing the assumption that no trees are lost by decomposition, i.e., by using the decomposition rate. Finally, in the most important result, the model allows estimation of how far back a good estimate of the numbers in the population can be made if the decomposition rates are known.     

Achieving a real-time online monitoring system for conservation culturomics

Environmental monitoring is increasingly shifting toward a set of systems that describe changes in real time. In ecology specifically, a series of challenges have prevented the rollout of real-time monitoring for features such as biodiversity change or ecosystem service provision. Conservation culturomics, a field concerned with interactions between people and nature, is well placed to demonstrate how monitoring might move toward a network of real-time platforms, given its existence exclusively in the digital realm. We examined a set of considerations associated with the development of real-time monitoring platforms for conservation culturomics and introduce a near real-time platform for the Species Awareness Index, a global index of changing biodiversity awareness derived from the rate of change in page views for species on Wikipedia. This platform will update automatically each month, operating in near real time ( https://joemillard.shinyapps.io/Real_time_SAI/ ). There are plans to make the underlying data queryable via an application programing interface independent of the platform. The real-time Species Awareness Index will represent the first real-time and entirely automated conservation culturomic platform and one of the first real-time platforms in the discipline of ecology. Real-time monitoring for culturomics can provide insight into human–nature interactions as they play out in the physical realm and provide a framework for the development of real-time monitoring in ecology. Real-time monitoring metrics can be processed on private virtual machines and hosted on publicly available cloud services. Conservation now needs an online, real-time observatory that can evolve with the structure of the web.     

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

Systems of innovation, the urban order and sustainable development.

Innovative cities are essential for the economic growth and development of countries. At the same time, however, social and environmental problems related to city growth can be serious threats to the full realisation of the socio-economic contribution that cities can make. City environments thus often provide both new problems and the creative and diverse environments, which make it possible to solve them. The question of whether or not sustainable development is possible largely will be answered in cities. This is also the case for problems related to waste management. Landfills may be located in the countryside, but if a country is to reduce environmental costs, the results will rest on the innovation power of cities. In this paper it is argued that the notion of a 'system of innovation' is helpful in understanding the factors that shape the processes of innovation and that determine the extent to which environmental problems may be solved. In this context, institutional innovation and political innovation as compared to technical innovation are of special importance.