Feeding of western gray whales during a seismic survey near Sakhalin Island, Russia

Exxon Neftegas Limited, as operator of the Sakhalin-1 consortium, is developing oil and gas reserves on the continental shelf off northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia. DalMorNefteGeofizika (DMNG) on behalf of the Sakhalin-1 consortium conducted a 3-D seismic survey of the Odoptu license area during 17 August–9 September 2001. A portion of the primary feeding area of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) is located in the vicinity of the seismic survey. This paper presents data to assess whether western gray whale bottom feeding activity, as indicated by visible mud plumes, was affected by seismic operations. The mitigation and monitoring program associated with the seismic survey included aerial surveys during 19 July–19 November 2001. These aerial surveys documented the local and regional distribution, abundance, and bottom feeding activity of western gray whales. Data on gray whale feeding activity before, during and after the seismic survey were collected, with the whales assumed to be feeding on the benthos if mud plumes were observed on the surface. The data were used to assess the influence of seismic survey and other factors (including environmental) on feeding activity of western gray whales. A stepwise multiple regression analysis failed to find a statistically significant effect (α = 0.05) of the seismic survey on frequency of occurrence of mud plumes of western gray whales used as a proxy to evaluate bottom feeding activity in Piltun feeding area. The regression indicated that transect number (a proxy for water depth, related to distance from shore) and swell height (a proxy for sea state) were the only variables that had a significant effect on frequency of whale mud plumes. It is concluded that the 2001 seismic survey had no measurable effect (α = 0.05) on bottom feeding activity of western gray whales off Sakhalin Island. M.W. Newcomer, deceased     

Individual- and condition-dependent effects on habitat choice and choosiness

Research on consistent individual differences in behavior, or “behavioral syndromes”, continues to grow rapidly, and yet, the aspects of behavior under consideration have remained remarkably limited. Here, we consider individual variation in consistency of choice (termed here “choosiness”), as expressed during habitat choice. We repeatedly tested the responses of female Western Black Widows, Latrodectus hesperus, to two cues of habitat quality: prey chemical cues and variation in web site illuminance. We estimated females’ response by the distance they positioned themselves from (1) the source of prey chemical cues and (2) the darkest edge of our test arena. Individuals with low variance in their responses are deemed more “choosy”, whereas individuals with high variance are deemed less “choosy”. Generally, most females initiated web construction near the source of the prey chemical cues and tended to place themselves in low-light conditions. However, we detected strong, repeatable differences in females’ intensity of response, and within-individual variance of response (i.e., choosiness) was correlated across situations: females with highly consistent responses towards cricket chemical cues also exhibited highly consistent responses towards variation in light conditions. When deprived of food for extended periods, females were indistinguishable in their responses towards prey chemical cues, but tended to initiate web construction in brighter lighting conditions. Food-deprived females universally exhibited higher variance and diminished consistency in their responses (i.e., they were less choosy). Additionally, higher choosiness was associated with greater mass loss during choice trials, suggesting choosiness is energetically costly. Our results demonstrate that consistency of response to environmental cues is yet another element of behavior that varies among individuals and variation in choosiness could beget speed/quality trade-offs during animal decision making.     

Density-dependent effects of ants on selection for bumble bee pollination in Polemonium viscosum

Mutualisms are commonly exploited by cheater species that usurp rewards without providing reciprocal benefits. Yet most studies of selection between mutualist partners ignore interactions with third species and consequently overlook the impact of cheaters on evolution in the mutualism. Here, we explicitly investigate how the abundance of nectar-thieving ants (cheaters) influences selection in a pollination mutualism between bumble bees and the alpine skypilot, Polemonium viscosum. As suggested in past work with this species, bumble bees accounted for most of the seed production (78% +/- 6% [mean +/- SE]) in our high tundra study population and, in the absence of ants, exerted strong selection for large flowers. We tested for indirect effects of ant abundance on seed set through bumble bee pollination services (pollen delivery and pollen export) and a direct effect through flower damage. Ants reduced seed set per flower by 20% via flower damage. As ant density increased within experimental patches, the rate of flower damage rose, but pollen delivery and export did not vary significantly, showing that indirect effects of increased cheater abundance on pollinator service are negligible in this system. To address how ants affect selection for plant participation in the pollination mutualism we tested the impact of ant abundance on selection for bumble bee-mediated pollination. Results show that the impact of ants on fitness (seed set) accruing under bumble bee pollination is density dependent in P. viscosum. Selection for bumble bee pollination declined with increasing ant abundance in experimental patches, as predicted if cheaters constrain fitness returns of mutualist partner services. We also examined how ant abundance influences selection on flower size, a key component of plant investment in bumble bee pollination. We predicted that direct effects of ants would constrain bumble bee selection for large flowers. However, selection on flower size was significantly positive over a wide range of ant abundance (20-80% of plants visited by ants daily). Although high cheater abundance reduces the fitness returns of bumble bee pollination, it does not completely eliminate selection for bumble bee attraction in P. viscosum.     

Cumulative ecological and socioeconomic effects of forest policies in coastal Oregon.

Forest biodiversity policies in multi-ownership landscapes are typically developed in an uncoordinated fashion with little consideration of their interactions or possible unintended cumulative effects. We conducted an assessment of some of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of recently enacted forest management policies in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. This mountainous area of conifer and hardwood forests includes a mosaic of landowners with a wide range of goals, from wilderness protection to high-yield timber production. We projected forest changes over 100 years in response to logging and development using models that integrate land use change and forest stand and landscape processes. We then assessed responses to those management activities using GIS models of stand structure and composition, landscape structure, habitat models for focal terrestrial and aquatic species, timber production, employment, and willingness to pay for biodiversity protection. Many of the potential outcomes of recently enacted policies are consistent with intended goals. For example, we project the area of structurally diverse older conifer forest and habitat for late successional wildlife species to strongly increase. 'Other outcomes might not be consistent with current policies: for example, hardwoods and vegetation diversity strongly decline within and across owners. Some elements of biodiversity, including streams with high potential habitat for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and sites of potential oak woodland, occur predominately outside federal lands and thus were not affected by the strongest biodiversity policies. Except for federal lands, biodiversity policies were not generally characterized in sufficient detail to provide clear benchmarks against which to measure the progress or success. We conclude that land management institutions and policies are not well configured to deal effectively with ecological issues that span broad spatial and temporal scales and that alternative policies could be constructed that more effectively provide for a mix of forest values from this region.     

Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern prairie wetlands.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.     

Using decomposition rates to infer how far back tree populations can be reconstructed

To study forest dynamics without relying on the space-for-time substitution, one must be able to follow a population or stand of trees back or forward in time. The method of stand reconstruction looks back in time by aging all the live trees and aging and dating the time of death of dead standing and fallen trees. However, dead trees are lost by decomposition so the record becomes increasingly incomplete with passage of time. Here we present a model of the passage of trees from dead standing to dead decomposed but still datable to completely decomposed and thus undatable or lost. We then generalize a method for calculating the falling rate of dead trees originally proposed in 1985 by A. P. Gore, E. A. Johnson, and H. P. Lo. We do this by removing the assumption that no trees are lost by decomposition, i.e., by using the decomposition rate. Finally, in the most important result, the model allows estimation of how far back a good estimate of the numbers in the population can be made if the decomposition rates are known.     

Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep

Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations.     

Subpopulation structure of caribou (Rangifer tarandus L.) in arctic and subarctic Canada

Effective management and conservation of species, subspecies, or ecotypes require an understanding of how populations are structured in space. We used satellite-tracking locations and hierarchical and fuzzy clustering to quantify subpopulations within the behaviorally different barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus), Dolphin and Union island caribou (R. t. groenlandicus x pearyi), and boreal (R. t. caribou) caribou ecotypes in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. Using a novel approach, we verified that the previously recognized Cape Bathurst, Bluenose-West, Bluenose-East, Bathurst, Beverly, Qamanirjuaq, and Lorillard barren-ground subpopulations were robust and that the Queen Maude Gulf and Wager Bay barren-ground subpopulations were organized as individuals. Dolphin and Union island and boreal caribou formed one and two distinct subpopulation, respectively, and were organized as individuals. Robust subpopulations were structured by strong annual spatial affiliation among females; subpopulations organized as individuals were structured by migratory connectivity, barriers to movement, and/or habitat discontinuity. One barren-ground subpopulation used two calving grounds, and one calving ground was used by two barren-ground subpopulations, indicating that these caribou cannot be reliably assigned to subpopulations solely by calving-ground use. They should be classified by annual spatial affiliation among females. Annual-range size and path lengths varied significantly among ecotypes, including mountain woodland caribou (R. t. caribou), and reflected behavioral differences. An east-west cline in annual-range sizes and path lengths among migratory barren-ground subpopulations likely reflected differences in subpopulation size and habitat conditions and further supported the subpopulation structure identified.     

Genetic structure of the southeastern United States loggerhead turtle nesting aggregation: evidence of additional structure within the peninsular Florida recovery unit

The southeastern United States supports one of two large loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations worldwide and is therefore critical to global conservation and recovery efforts for the species. Previous studies have established the presence of four demographically distinct nesting populations (management units) corresponding to beaches from (1) North Carolina through northeastern Florida, (2) peninsular Florida, (3) the Dry Tortugas, and (4) northwest Florida. Temporal and geographic genetic structure of the nesting aggregation was examined utilizing partial mitochondrial control region haplotype frequencies from 834 samples collected over the 2002 through 2008 nesting seasons from 19 beaches as well as previously published haplotype data. Most rookeries did not exhibit interannual genetic variation. However, the interannual variation detected did significantly impact the interpretation of spatial genetic structure in northeastern Florida. Based on pairwise F _ST comparisons, exact tests of population differentiation, and analysis of molecular variance, the present study upholds the distinctiveness of the four currently recognized management units and further supports recognition of discrete central eastern, southern (southeastern and southwestern), and central western Florida management units. Further subdivision may be warranted, but more intensive genetic sampling is required. In addition, tools such as telemetry and mark-recapture are needed to complement genetic data and overcome limitations of genetic markers in resolving loggerhead turtle rookery connectivity in the southeastern USA.     

Mineral reserves under price uncertainty

National reporting organizations and regulatory bodies for the minerals and mining sector are requiring publicly reported Ore-Reserve estimates to take account of uncertainties. Whilst methodologies that account for physical uncertainty appear relatively well developed, methodologies which can take account of economic uncertainty appear much less so. To counter this shortfall, we present an efficient and general methodology which can quantify the effect of price uncertainty within reserve estimates, providing both the expected reserve size and the associated distribution (box whisker plot). This statistical information can be used by interested parties to understand precisely where the reserve risks lie, which we highlight in a worked example.