Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

Vinyl Chloride Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on vinyl chloride was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the European Union (EU) risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Technical Guidance Documents for New and Existing Substances (TGD, 1996). Vinyl chloride is used for the production of polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The study consisted of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programmes in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC) and the Predicted No-Effect Concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total 6 studies for fish, 3 studies for invertebrates and one for algae have been evaluated. The appropriate assessment factors have been used to calculate a PNEC of 210 microg/l based on short-term exposure. For coastal waters and estuaries a worst case PEC of 0.15 microg/l is derived. For river waters a typical and worst case PEC of <0.008 and 0.4 microg/l is derived, respectively. These concentrations, which do not take into account any dilution within the sea, correspond to safety margins from 500 to 250,000 between the aquatic effect and the exposure concentration. Vinyl chloride is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance sensu the Oslo and Paris Conventions for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC). It can be concluded that the present use of vinyl chloride does not present a risk to the marine aquatic environment.     

1,1,1-Trichloroethane Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on 1,1,1-trichloroethane was carried out specifically for the marine environment, accordingly to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1996). 1,1,1-trichloroethane is being phased out of most uses because of its ozone depletion potential (ODP) under the Montreal Protocol. Production for emissive uses has already been phased out end 1995 in Europe and 1996 in the United States, Japan and other industrial countries. The risk assessment study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programmes in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) and the Predicted No-Effect Concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total 14 studies for fish, 7 studies for invertebrates and 9 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to calculate a PNEC value of 21 microg/l based on long term exposure. The PEC was derived from monitoring data. The PEC was set at 0.206 microg/l (worst case) and 0.024 microg/l (typical case) for coastal waters and estuaries and 0.6 microg/l (worst case) and <0.1 microg/l (typical case) for river waters. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios, which do not take into account any dilution factor within the sea, correspond to a safety margin of 35 to 1000 between the aquatic effect and the exposure concentration. 1,1,1-trichloroethane is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance according to the criteria as mentioned by the Oslo and Paris Conventions for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC). It can be concluded that the present use of 1,1,1-trichloroethane does not present a risk to the marine aquatic environment.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - 1,1,2-Trichloroethane

This risk assessment on 1,1,2-trichloroethane (T112) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 22 studies for fish, 45 studies for invertebrates and 9 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 300 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.01 µg T112/l water and a worst case PEC of 5 µg T112/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 60 to 30,000 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - 1,2-Dichloroethane

This risk assessment on 1,2-dichloroethane (EDC) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 21 studies for fish, 17 studies for invertebrates and 7 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 1100 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.5 µg EDC/l and a worst case PEC of 6.4 µg EDC/l. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 170 to 2200 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Chloroform

This risk assessment on chloroform was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 23 studies for fish, 17 studies for invertebrates and 10 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a typical PNEC value of 72 µg/l. Due to limitations of the studies evaluated, a worst PNEC of 1 µg/l could also be used. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.2 µg chloroform per litre of water and a worst case PEC of 5 to 11.5 µg chloroform per litre of water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 6 to 360 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentrations. A worst case ratio, however, points to a potential risk for sensitive species. Refinement of the assessment is necessary by looking for more data. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Tetrachloroethylene

This risk assessment on tetrachloroethylene (PER) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 18 studies for fish, 13 studies for invertebrates and 8 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 51 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuary waters and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.2 µg PER/l water and a worst case PEC of 2.5 µg PER/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 20 to 250 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Carbon accounting for Japanese petrochemicals

This paper discusses two bottom-up models for the estimation of carbon storage and CO₂ emissions related to the nonenergy use of fossil energy carriers. The models show how material flow accounting can be applied to policy making. The nonenergy use emission accounting tables model is a static model, while the chemical industry environmental strategy assessment program (CHEAP) model is a dynamic model of the flows of synthetic organic materials. Both models provide detailed and more accurate estimates of carbon storage in materials than the accounting method that is currently used in the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) guidelines. The results for both models suggest that carbon storage in synthetic organic materials has been overestimated, and consequently CO₂ emissions have been underestimated. Japanese CO₂ emissions in 1996 were at least 1.9% higher than reported previously. The CHEAP model results indicate that the net carbon storage (storage − emissions in waste incineration) will decrease during the next few decades. This decrease is mainly driven by changing waste management practice. Received: December 8, 2000 / Accepted: August 15, 2001