Adapting to changing climate risk by local government in New Zealand: institutional practice barriers and enablers

Adaptation to climate change has been reviewed in several developed nations, but in none where consideration of the effects of climate change is required by statute and devolved to local government. We examine the role of institutional arrangements, the players operating under them, the barriers and enablers for adaptation decision-making in the developed nation of New Zealand. We examine how the roles and responsibilities between national, regional and local governments influence the ability of local government to deliver long-term flexible responses to changing climate risk. We found that the disciplinary practices of law, engineering and planning, within legal frameworks, result in the use of static mechanisms which create inflexible responses to changing risk. Several enablers are identified that could create greater integration between the different scales of government, including better use of national policy instruments, shared professional experience, standardised information collection and risk assessment methods that address uncertainties. The framing of climate risk as dynamic and changing that differentiates activities over their lifetime, development of mechanisms to fund transitions towards transformational change, are identified as necessary conditions for delivering flexible responses over time.     

The effects of geology and the impact of seasonal correction factors on indoor radon levels: a case study approach

Geology has been highlighted by a number of authors as a key factor in high indoor radon levels. In the light of this, this study examines the application of seasonal correction factors to indoor radon concentrations in the UK. This practice is based on an extensive database gathered by the National Radiological Protection Board over the years (small-scale surveys began in 1976 and continued with a larger scale survey in 1988) and reflects well known seasonal variations observed in indoor radon levels. However, due to the complexity of underlying geology (the UK arguably has the world's most complex solid and surficial geology over the shortest distances) and considerable variations in permeability of underlying materials it is clear that there are a significant number of occurrences where the application of a seasonal correction factor may give rise to over-estimated or under-estimated radon levels. Therefore, the practice of applying a seasonal correction should be one that is undertaken with caution, or not at all. This work is based on case studies taken from the Northamptonshire region and comparisons made to other permeable geologies in the UK.     

The influence of high initial concentration aqueous-phase TCE on the performance of iron wall systems

Flow-through column tests were conducted to investigate the performance of iron wall remediation systems for the degradation of aqueous-phase trichloroethylene (TCE). Concentration profiles under steady-state transport conditions were generated by measuring TCE concentrations at sample ports located at various locations along the length of the column. The results indicated that a pseudo-first-order model is adequate at describing degradation kinetics for low initial TCE concentrations, but not for higher initial concentrations. The deviation from pseudo-first-order kinetics can be explained by interspecies competition for reactive sites between TCE and a dominant reaction product. A modification of the pseudo-first-order model that accounts for product interference predicts laboratory data for high initial concentration profiles, but deviates slightly as initial concentrations approach the solubility of TCE. The data clearly demonstrate the importance of accurately describing reaction kinetics for the purpose of designing iron wall treatment systems.     

Identifying socioeconomic and biophysical factors driving forest loss in protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are a commonly used strategy to confront forest conversion and biodiversity loss. Although determining drivers of forest loss is central to conservation success, understanding of them is limited by conventional modeling assumptions. We used random forest regression to evaluate potential drivers of deforestation in PAs in Mexico, while accounting for nonlinear relationships and higher order interactions underlying deforestation processes. Socioeconomic drivers (e.g., road density, human population density) and underlying biophysical conditions (e.g., precipitation, distance to water, elevation, slope) were stronger predictors of forest loss than PA characteristics, such as age, type, and management effectiveness. Within PA characteristics, variables reflecting collaborative and equitable management and PA size were the strongest predictors of forest loss, albeit with less explanatory power than socioeconomic and biophysical variables. In contrast to previously used methods, which typically have been based on the assumption of linear relationships, we found that the associations between most predictors and forest loss are nonlinear. Our results can inform decisions on the allocation of PA resources by strengthening management in PAs with the highest risk of deforestation and help preemptively protect key biodiversity areas that may be vulnerable to deforestation in the future.     

A Bayesian hierarchical model for assessing the impact of human activity on nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Europe

Ambient concentrations of many pollutants are associated with emissions due to human activity, such as road transport and other combustion sources. In this paper we consider air pollution as a multi-level phenomenon on a continental scale within a Bayesian hierarchical model. We examine different scales of variation in pollution concentrations ranging from large scale transboundary effects to more localised effects which are directly related to human activity. Specifically, in the first stage of the model, we isolate underlying patterns in pollution concentrations due to global factors such as underlying climate and topography, which are modelled together with spatial structure. At this stage measurements from monitoring sites located within rural areas are used which, as far as possible, are chosen to reflect background concentrations. Having isolated these global effects, in the second stage we assess the effects of human activity on pollution in urban areas. The proposed model was applied to concentrations of nitrogen dioxide measured throughout the EU for which significant increases are found to be associated with human activity in urban areas. The approach proposed here provides valuable information that could be used in performing health impact assessments and to inform policy.     

An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

A framework for predicting personal exposures to environmental hazards

This paper presents a general framework for constructing a predictive distribution of the exposure to an environmental hazard sustained by a randomly selected member of a designated population. The individual’s exposure is assumed to arise from random movement through the environment, resulting in a distribution of exposure that can be used for environmental risk analysis. A specialization of the general framework is that of predicting human exposure to air pollution that can be used to develop models for such things as exposure to particulate matter; practical aspects of their construction are considered. These models can help answer questions such as what fraction of the population sustained ‘high’ levels of exposure for say 5 days in a row. The immediate implementation of the above framework takes the form of a computing platform referred to as pCNEM. This provides a facility for simulating exposures to airborne pollutants and is described in detail elsewhere. This paper considers some theoretical aspects underpinning probabilistic exposure models of this type, with the ideas illustrated in developing a model for predicting human exposure to PM ₁₀.     

Three common metal contaminants of urban runoff (Zn, Cu & Pb) accumulate in freshwater biofilm and modify embedded bacterial communities

We investigated the absorption rates of zinc, copper and lead in freshwater biofilm and assessed whether biofilm bacterial populations are affected by exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of these metals in flow chamber microcosms. Metals were rapidly accumulated by the biofilm and then retained for at least 14 days after transfer to uncontaminated water. Changes in bacterial populations were assessed by Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis (ARISA) and 16S rRNA gene clone libraries. Significant differences in bacterial community structure occurred within only three days of exposure to metals and remained detectable at least 14 days after transfer to uncontaminated water. The rapid uptake of stormwater-associated metals and their retention in the biofilm highlight the potential role of biofilms in the transfer of metals to organisms at higher trophic levels. The sensitivity of stream biofilm bacterial populations to metal exposure supports their use as an indicator of stream ecological health.     

Parental care and sexual size dimorphism in wasps and bees

Sexual size dimorphism, in which one sex is larger than the other, occurs when body size has differential effects on the fitness of males and females. Mammals and birds usually have male-biased size dimorphism, probably because of strong sexual competition among males. Invertebrates usually have female-biased size dimorphism, perhaps because their inflexible exoskeletons limit ovary size, leading to a strong correlation between female body size and fecundity. In this paper, we test whether an additional factor, the type of parental care provided, affects the degree of sexual size dimorphism. Among wasps and bees, there is a contrast between provisioning taxa, in which females must gather and transport heavy loads of provisions to nests they have constructed, and non-provisioning taxa, in which females lay eggs but do not construct nests or transport provisions. Males have no role in parental care in either case. An analysis of British wasps and bees shows that provisioning taxa have significantly more female-biased size dimorphism than non-provisioning taxa. This is true for simple cross‑species comparisons and after controlling for phylogeny. Our data imply that the demands of carrying provision loads are at least part of the explanation for this pattern. Thus, sexual size dimorphism is greatest in pompilid wasps, which carry the heaviest prey items. Bees, which transport minute pollen grains, exhibit the least dimorphism. We also find that cavity‑nesting species, in which nest construction costs may be minimized, exhibit reduced dimorphism, but this was not significant after controlling for phylogeny.