Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Persistence and effect of processing on reduction of chlorantraniliprole residues on brinjal and okra fruits

Dissipation and decontamination of chlorantraniliprole (Coragen 18.5 SC) in brinjal and okra fruits were studied following field application at single and double doses of 30 and 60 g ai ha^?1, and the residues of the insecticide was estimated using LC-MS/MS. Initial residues of chlorantraniliprole at single and double doses on the fruits of brinjal were 0.72 and 1.48 mg kg^?1, while on okra fruits, the residues were 0.48 and 0.91 mg kg^?1, respectively. The residues reached below detectable level of 0.01 mg kg^?1 on the 10th day. Half-life of chlorantraniliprole at 30 and 60 g ai ha^?1 on brinjal was 1.58 and 1.80 days with the calculated waiting period of 0.69 and 2.38 days, whereas on okra, the values were 1.60 and 1.70 and 0 and 1.20 days, respectively. The extent of removal of chlorantraniliprole using simple decontaminating techniques at 2 h and 3 days after spraying was 40.99–91.37 % and 29.85–89.12 %, respectively, from brinjal fruits and 47.78–86.10 % and 41.77–86.48 %, respectively, from okra fruits.     

Terrain Discontinuity Effects in the Regional Flow of a Complex Karstified Aquifer

Karst aquifers are characterized by spatial heterogeneity due to the presence of highly permeable channels and conduits in low-permeable fractured rocks (matrix block). Recent studies have reported a close relationship between surface and subsurface water in karstic regions due to the water flow through a complicated network of paths formed by fracture intersections. Subsurface flow in karstified aquifers ranges between conduit flow, in large passages with relatively high flow velocities, and diffuse flow, in the matrix block where Darcy’s law is still valid. In this paper, we present the simulation of a complex karstified aquifer system in Crete, Greece, where the presence of main faults drastically affects the regional flow. A discrete fracture approach in conjunction with an equivalent porous medium approach was adopted to simulate the mixed flow in the area of interest. The simulation results have shown that the length and the orientation of the dominant faults, primarily during the rainy season, affect the flow field.     

Treatment technologies for PAH-contaminated sites: a critical review

To reduce environmental and human health risks of contaminated sites, having a comprehensive knowledge about the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) removal processes is crucial. PAHs are contaminants which are highly recognized to pose threats to humans, animals, and plants. PAHs are hydrophobic and own two or more benzene rings, and hence are resistant to structural degradation. There are various techniques which have been developed to treat PAH-contaminated soil. Four distinct processes to remove PAHs in the contaminated soil, thought to be more effective techniques, are presented in this review: soil washing, chemical oxidation, electrokinetic, phytoremediation. In a surfactant-aided washing process, a removal rate of 90% was reported. Compost-amended phytoremediation treatment presented 58–99% removal of pyrene from the soil in 90 days. Chemical oxidation method was able to reach complete conversion for some PAHs. In electrokinetic treatment, researchers have achieved reliable results in removal of some specific PAHs. Researchers’ innovations in novel studies and advantages/disadvantages of the techniques are also investigated throughout the paper. Finally, it should be noted that an exclusive method or a combination of methods by themselves are not the key to be employed for remediation of every contaminated site but the field characteristics are also essential in selection of the most appropriate decontamination technique(s). The remedy for selection criteria is based on PAH concentrations, site characteristics, costs, shortcomings, and advantages.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Investigating the link between $$\hbox {PM}_{2.5}$$ and atmospheric profile variables via penalized functional quantile regression

Fine particulate matter (\(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\)) events negatively affect the health of numerous persons globally each year. Previous works have described the association between air pollution and surface-level meteorological conditions; however, there has been less focus on the task of linking air pollution events with meteorological conditions at higher levels of the atmosphere. Working within the functional data framework, we develop a penalized functional quantile regression (PFQR) procedure to model conditional quantiles of a continuous response based on a functional covariate, with the ability to penalize selected derivatives of the estimated coefficient function. Our aim is to investigate the relationship between atmospheric profile variables (APVs), assumed to be functional, and key quantiles of the conditional distribution of surface-level \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\). Via a simulation study, we find that the performance of our PFQR procedure compares favorably to other related approaches. We conclude with an analysis of \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) data at two Southeastern US locations, Columbia, SC and Tampa, FL, where we estimate the coefficient functions for the APVs corresponding to both ‘typical’ and ‘high’ \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) events. As we believe that the true coefficient functions are smooth and may be exactly zero over subsets of their domains, we impose penalties on the 0th and 2nd derivatives. Our analysis indicates that the corresponding atmospheric conditions differ between the two locations, and that the conditions differ seasonally within location.     

Formalising informal solid waste recycling at the Pomona dumpsite in Harare,Zimbabwe

The role of informal recycling in poverty alleviation and solid waste management in cities in developing countries has been receiving increased attention. This study explores the integration of the informal recycling sector with the Harare City Council's solid waste management system, focusing on the Pomona dumpsite. The extent of this integration was compared with interventions proposed in InteRa, a new way of evaluating the integration of informal recyclers with the waste management systems of cities in developing countries. Our results suggest that the Harare City Council, which had the vision of transforming itself into a world‐class city, failed to fully integrate the informal recycling sector. We suggest to policymakers that complete integration of the informal sector will not necessarily prevent cities from achieving such visions. Rather, addressing the neglected interventions may help in achieving their visions.     

The channels of the effect of government expenditure on the environment: evidence using dynamic panel data

This paper explores the relationship between government spending and environmental quality using panel data for 94 countries for the period 1970–2008. We identify and estimate three distinct channels that comprise the total direct effect of government expenditure on air pollution, namely a marginal effect, an effect conditional on economic growth and an effect conditional on institutional quality. Since adjustment rate of emissions to their equilibrium level is slow due to technological and institutional reasons, we explicitly take into account dynamics by applying appropriate econometric methods. The results demonstrate that there is a significant alleviating direct effect of government expenditure on SO₂ and NO_x emissions, which increases with the level of economic growth and democracy. However, there is no evidence of a significant effect on pollutants with more global impact on the environment and human health, like N₂O and CO₂, implying that the adoption of international environmental treaties is required in this case.     

Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site

Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3 °C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.     

Occurrence and distribution of trifluralin,ethalfluralin, and pendimethalin in soils used for long-term intensive cotton cultivation in central Greece

In the present study, a soil monitoring program was undertaken in Greek cotton cultivated areas in 2012. Twenty-seven soil samples were collected from the entire Thessaly plain in early summer of 2012, corresponding to approximately three months (current use of pendimethalin), up to one year (for the banned ethalfluralin), and three years (for the also banned trifluralin), after the last dinitroaniline application. Low but not negligible levels of dinitroanilines were detected, ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 μg g^?1 d.w. for trifluralin and 0.01–0.048 μg g^?1 d.w. for pendimethalin, respectively. Trifluralin was the herbicide most frequently detected (44.4%). The high historic application of trifluralin and its high persistence and accumulation potential is in line with the abundance of the detected residues. The present data indicate that soil samples contain extractable residues of banned trifluralin, but based on the comparison of the theoretical PECplateau for trifluralin (0.277 µg g^?1) and the maximum Measured Environmental Concentration, it was concluded that the detected residues should be attributed to previous years’ application. The latter suggested the need for continual monitoring of the dinitroaniline family of pesticides, including the banned substances, aiming thus to an improved environmental profile for agricultural areas.