Resource Potentials and Limitations of A Nicaraguan Agricultural Region

Food production has to be increased in a sustainable way to meet the future global demand. A key position is attributed to developing countries. A deepened understanding of their agricultural regions with specific resource endowments and constraints is therefore crucial. In this study we propose a methodology based on material flux analysis (MFA) to assess the resource potentials and limitations of a Nicaraguan agricultural region. We focus on current regional and farm resource management and explore them under two scenarios. Indicators are nitrogen and the degrees of self-sufficiency (DSS) for energy, and the staples maize and beans. As data is scarce, most information is based on interviews with farmers of four categories and key persons, and on literature. The results show that nitrogen management does not differ considerably among categories. Nitrogen is mined mostly from staple plots. Self-sufficiency for beans is given in an average year. Yet, landless and small farmers neither produce enough maize for autoconsumption, nor are they self-sufficient for firewood. Energy supply is also the core problem of the region, since the DSS is 70%. Soil nitrogen stocks last at most for three more generations. Analyses with the scenario technique show that: (a) Unlimited population growth has serious consequences in the near future e.g. severe shortage of energy and food. (b) Alternative farming systems are possible, but they require reducing the population by a factor 2, and thus the creation of jobs in a Hinterland. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Ökotoxikologische Risikoanalyse der Cadmium-Belastung

Cadmium contamination in the agricultural soil of the region Leipzig-Halle was determined at 63 sites covering an area of ca. 7 000 km². Normalization according to lutum and organic matter lead to effective exposure values; their distribution was compared with NOEC data taken from literature. The risk analysis reveals that the soil fauna is potentially affected by cadmium contamination at 9% of the investigated sites.     

Statistical analysis of heavy metal data from municipal waste incineration residues

Heavy Metal data from a measurement program at a municipal incinerator in Vienna, Austria are analysed. The experimental design had a nested structure, and analysis of variance is used to break down the total variability into several components; (1) variability between mean hourly concentrations, (2) variability between mean sample concentrations within intervals of an hour and (3) variability due to “measurement” errors. Results of a pre-experiment show, that if grab samples are taken, within hour variation is dominant. The results of analysis of variance were used to calculate an optimal number of samples, which ensure a predetermined accuracy for the mean concentrations. In two main measuring periods with different incinerated waste types, slag and fly ash (ESP dust and boiler ash) data are produced and analysed. For both slag and fly ash, significant differences in measures of location and dispersion between the data sets of the main experiment are found. This proves, that differences in the chemical set up of waste can be detected via incineration residues.     

?kotoxikologische Risikoanalyse der Cadmium-Belastung im Ackerboden der Industrieregion Leipzig-Halle

Die Cadmium-Belastung im Ackerboden der Region Leipzig-Halle wurde an 63 terrestrischen Standorten über einer Fl?che von etwa 7 000 km² bestimmt. Die Verteilung der durch Normierung auf einheitlichen Gehalt an Ton und organischem Material erhaltenen effektiven Expositionswerte wurde mit Literaturangaben über NOEC-Werte verglichen. Die Risikoanalyse ergibt, da? an 9% der untersuchten Standorte eine potentielle Gef?hrdung der Bodenorganismen durch Cadmium vorliegt. Cadmium contamination in the agricultural soil of the region Leipzig-Halle was determined at 63 sites covering an area of ca. 7 000 km². Normalization according to lutum and organic matter lead to effective exposure values; their distribution was compared with NOEC data taken from literature. The risk analysis reveals that the soil fauna is potentially affected by cadmium contamination at 9% of the investigated sites.     

Congener-specific concentrations and carbon stable isotope ratios (delta13C) of two technical toxaphene products (Toxaphene and Melipax)

In this study we compared the contribution of individual congeners and the ratios of stable carbon isotopes of two technical toxaphene products. The former US-American product Toxaphene was from 1978 and the East-German product Melipax from 1979. Both technical products showed the known complexity in GC/ECD measurements. Contributions of 24 peaks to each of the technical products were determined by gas chromatography in combination high resolution electron capture negative ion mass spectrometry (GC/ECNI-HRMS). The percentages of the compounds studied in the technical mixtures ranged from approximately 0.05% to approximately 2.5% but showed some individual differences. 2,2,5,5,8,9,9,10,10-nonachlorobornane (B9-1025 or P-62) was identified as a major congener in both mixtures. 2-Endo,3-exo,5-endo,6-exo,8,8,10,10-octachlorobornane (B8-1413 or P26) and 2-endo,3-exo,5-endo,6-exo,8,8,9,10,10-nonachlorobornane (B9-1679 or P-50) were found at similar concentration in both technical products. Identical amounts of Melipax or Toxaphene were combusted to CO2 in an element analyzer and their delta13C values were determined relative to the international standard Vienna PeeDee belemnite (VPDB). The mean delta13C values of both products varied by 2.8% (determined at two different locations) which is roughly one order of magnitude more than the precision obtained in repetitive analyses of the individual products. Thus, both investigated products could be unequivocally distinguished by stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). IRMS analyses may thus be a suitable tool for tracing back toxaphene residues in environmental and food samples to the one or both of the products.     

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) is a key species in the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Most stocks of small pelagic species are characterized by natural, fishery-independent fluctuations, which make it difficult to predict stock development. Baltic sprat recruitment is highly variable, which can partly be related to climate-driven variability in hydrographic conditions. Results from experimental studies and field observations demonstrate that a number of important life history traits of sprat are affected by temperature, especially the survival and growth of early life stages. Projected climate-driven warming may impact important processes affecting various life stages of sprat, from survival and development during the egg and larval phases to the reproductive output of adults. This study presents a stage-based matrix model approach to simulate sprat population dynamics in relation to different climate change scenarios. Data obtained from experimental studies and field observations were used to estimate and incorporate stage-specific growth and survival rates into the model. Model-based estimates of population growth rate were affected most by changes in the transition probability of the feeding larval stage at all temperatures (+0, +2, +4, +6?°C). The maximum increase in population growth rate was expected when ambient temperature was elevated by 4?°C. Coupling our stage-based model and more complex, biophysical individual-based models may reveal the processes driving these expected climate-driven changes in Baltic Sea sprat population dynamics.