REGIONAL RAINFALL INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVES FOR PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: A statistical analysis of all available continuous hourly and 15-minute duration rainfall records for Pennsylvania was performed to develop an updated procedure to estimate design storms. As a resuit of this study, Pennsylvania was divided into five homogeneous rainfall regions and a set of rainfall intensity-duration curves developed for each region, for return periods of 1 to 100 years and durations ranging from 5 minutes to 24 hours. The PDT-IDF curves were judged to be a better representation of Pennsylvania rainfall than the nationwide TP-40 maps, particularly for storm events of 10-years and lower return periods. The average time distribution of 24-hour storms in Pennsylvania was found to be well represented by the SCS Type II distribution. The Corps of Engineers SPS 24-hour distribution was found to differ appreciably from both the SCS Type H and the Pennsylvania 24-hour storm distribution. For storm durations between 15 and 90 minutes the standard Yarnell intensity-duration curves closely resemble Pennsylvania storm distributions.     

Altitude profiles of total chlorinated paraffins in humus and spruce needles from the Alps (MONARPOP)

Chlorinated paraffins (CPs) are toxic, bioaccumulative, persistent, and ubiquitously present in the environment. CPs were analyzed in humus and needle samples, which were taken within the Monitoring Network in the Alpine Region for Persistent and other Organic Pollutants (MONARPOP) at sampling sites of 7 different altitude profiles in the Alps. Gas chromatography combined with electron ionization tandem mass spectrometry (EI-MS/MS) was used for the determination of total CPs (sum of short, medium and long chain CPs). CPs were found in all samples; the concentrations varied between 7 and 199 ng g⁻¹ dry weight (dw) and within 26 and 460 ng g⁻¹ dw in humus and needle samples, respectively. A clear vertical tendency within the individual altitude profiles could not be ascertained. Within all altitude profiles, elevated concentrations were observed in humus samples taken between 700 and 900 m and between 1300 and 1500 m. In the needle samples no similar correlation could be observed due to higher variation of the data.     

Perfluorinated acids as novel chemical tracers of global circulation of ocean waters

Perfluorinated acids (PFAs) such as perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) are global environmental contaminants. The physicochemical properties of PFAs are unique in that they have high water solubilities despite the low reactivity of carbon-fluorine bond, which also imparts high stability in the environment. Because of the high water solubilities, the open-ocean water column is suggested to be the final sink for PFOS and PFOA. However, little is known on the distribution of PFAs in the oceans around the world. Here we describe the horizontal (spatial) and vertical distribution of PFAs in ocean waters worldwide. PFOS and PFOA concentrations in the North Atlantic Ocean ranged from 8.6 to 36pg l(-1) and from 52 to 338pg l(-1), respectively, whereas the corresponding concentrations in the Mid Atlantic Ocean were 13-73pg l(-1) and 67-439pg l(-1). These were completely different from the surface waters of the South Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean (overall range of <5-11pg l(-1) for PFOS and PFOA). Vertical profiles of PFAs in the marine water column were associated with the global ocean circulation theory. Vertical profiles of PFAs in water columns from the Labrador Sea reflected the influx of the North Atlantic Current in surface waters, the Labrador Current in subsurface waters, and the Denmark Strait Overflow Water in deep layers below 2000m. Striking differences in the vertical and spatial distribution of PFAs, depending on the oceans, suggest that these persistent acids can serve as useful chemical tracers to allow us to study oceanic transportation by major water currents. The results provide evidence that PFA concentrations and profiles in the oceans adhere to a pattern consistent with the global "Broecker's Conveyor Belt" theory of open ocean water circulation.     

Historical trends in persistent organic pollutants and metals recorded in sediment from Lake Ellasjøen, Bjørnøya, Norwegian Arctic

Ellasj?en receives contaminants from both atmospheric and biological transport (seabird guano). Historical trends of selected persistent organic pollutants and metals were determined by interpretation of down-core contaminant profiles in conjunction with sediment layer ages, determined by the (210)Pb method. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane and metabolites (DDTs) increased from about 1930 until 1970 (max. sum PCBs 71.8 ng/g dry weight (dw), max sum DDTs 4.0 ng/g dw), declining afterwards to 46.4 ng/g dw and 1.6 ng/g dw, respectively. Polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) concentrations are increasing in Ellasj?en, reaching 0.73 ng/g dw in 2001. Hexabromocyclododekane (HBCD) was measured only in sediment from 1-2 cm depth (0.43 and 3.88 ng/g dw of alpha- and gamma-HBCD, respectively). Most metals (As, Cd, Co, Ni and Zn) showed a similar pattern as PCBs. No clear trends were observed for Cr, Pb or V. Mercury (Hg) has increased gradually since the beginning of the industrial era.     

Time stress,predation risk and diurnal–nocturnal foraging trade-offs in larval prey

Insect larvae increase in size with several orders of magnitude throughout development making them more conspicuous to visually hunting predators. This change in predation pressure is likely to impose selection on larval anti-predator behaviour and since the risk of detection is likely to decrease in darkness, the night may offer safer foraging opportunities to large individuals. However, forsaking day foraging reduces development rate and could be extra costly if prey are subjected to seasonal time stress. Here we test if size-dependent risk and time constraints on feeding affect the foraging–predation risk trade-off expressed by the use of the diurnal–nocturnal period. We exposed larvae of one seasonal and one non-seasonal butterfly to different levels of seasonal time stress and time for diurnal–nocturnal feeding by rearing them in two photoperiods. In both species, diurnal foraging ceased at large sizes while nocturnal foraging remained constant or increased, thus larvae showed ontogenetic shifts in behaviour. Short night lengths forced small individuals to take higher risks and forage more during daytime, postponing the shift to strict night foraging to later on in development. In the non-seasonal species, seasonal time stress had a small effect on development and the diurnal–nocturnal foraging mode. In contrast, in the seasonal species, time for pupation and the timing of the foraging shift were strongly affected. We argue that a large part of the observed variation in larval diurnal–nocturnal activity and resulting growth rates is explained by changes in the cost/benefit ratio of foraging mediated by size-dependent predation and time stress.     

Recolonizing wolves and mesopredator suppression of coyotes: impacts on pronghorn population dynamics.

Food web theory predicts that the loss of large carnivores may contribute to elevated predation rates and, hence, declining prey populations, through the process of mesopredator release. However, opportunities to test predictions of the mesopredator release hypothesis are rare, and the extent to which changes in predation rates influence prey population dynamics may not be clear due to a lack of demographic information on the prey population of interest. We utilized spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout much of the United States, contributes to high rates of neonatal mortality in ungulates. To test this hypothesis, we contrasted causes of mortality and survival rates of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) neonates captured at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites in western Wyoming, USA, between 2002 and 2004. We then used these data to parameterize stochastic population models to heuristically assess the impact of wolves on pronghorn population dynamics due to changes in neonatal survival. Coyote predation was the primary cause of mortality at all sites, but mortality due to coyotes was 34% lower in areas utilized by wolves (P < 0.001). Based on simulation modeling, the realized population growth rate was 0.92 based on fawn survival in the absence of wolves, and 1.06 at sites utilized by wolves. Thus, wolf restoration is predicted to shift the trajectory of the pronghorn population from a declining to an increasing trend. Our results suggest that reintroductions of large carnivores may influence biodiversity through effects on prey populations mediated by mesopredator suppression. In addition, our approach, which combines empirical data on the population of interest with information from other data sources, demonstrates the utility of using simulation modeling to more fully evaluate ecological theories by moving beyond estimating changes in vital rates to analyses of population-level impacts.     

Using classification trees to analyze the impact of exotic species on the ecological assessment of polder lakes in Flanders, Belgium

Polder lakes in Flanders are stagnant waters that were flooded by the sea in the past. Several of these systems are colonized by exotic species, but have hardly been studied until present. The aim of the present study was: (1) to assess the influence of exotic macrobenthic species on the outcome of the Multimetric Macroinvertebrate Index Flanders (MMIF) and (2) to use classification trees for evaluating to what extent physical-chemical characteristics affect the presence of exotic species.In total, 27 mollusc and 10 macro-crustacean species were present in the monitored lakes of which respectively five and four were exotic. The exclusion of the exotic species from the MMIF resulted in a significant decline of this ecological index (−0.03 ± 0.04; p = 0.00). This elimination often resulted into a lower ecological water quality class and more samples were classified into the bad and poor ecological water quality classes.Single-target classification trees for Gammarus tigrinus and Potamopyrgus antipodarum were constructed, relating environmental parameters and ecological status (MMIF) to the occurrence of both exotic invasive species. The major advantages of using single-target classification trees are the transparency of the rule sets and the possibility to use relatively small datasets. However, this classification technique only predicts a single-target attribute and the trees of the different species are often hard to integrate and use for water managers. As a solution, a multi-target approach was used in the present study. Exotic molluscs and crustaceans communities were modelled based on environmental parameters and the ecological status (MMIF) using multi-target classification trees. Multi-target classification trees can be used in management planning and investment decisions as they can lead to integrated decisions for the whole set of exotic species and avoid the construction of many models for each individual species. These trees provide general insights concerning the occurrence patterns of individual crustaceans and molluscs in an integrated way.