Multi-model approach and evaluation of the uncertainty of model results. Rationale and applications to predict the behaviour of contaminants in the abiotic components of the fresh water environment

This work aims at discussing some concepts pertaining to the theory and practice of environmental modelling in view of the results of several model validation exercises performed by the group “Model validation for radionuclide transport in the system watershed-river and in estuaries” of project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) supported by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The analyses here performed concern models applied to real scenarios of environmental contamination. In particular, the reasons for the uncertainty of the models and the EBUA (empirically based uncertainty analysis) methodology are discussed. The foundations of multi-model approach in environmental modelling are presented and motivated. An application of EBUA to the results of a multi-model exercise concerning three models aimed at predicting the wash-off of radionuclide deposits from the Pripyat floodplain (Ukraine) was described. Multi-model approach is, definitely, a tool for uncertainty analysis. EBUA offers the opportunity of an evaluation of the uncertainty levels of predictions in multi-model applications.     

Natural radioactivity and radon exhalation in building materials used in Italian dwellings

Forty-two samples of building materials commonly used in Italian dwellings were surveyed for natural radioactivity. External (gamma), as defined and used by the European Commission, and internal (alpha) hazard indexes were calculated and radon specific exhalation rate and emanation fraction were measured. The accumulation method, by using the E-PERM electret ion chambers, was employed to determine specific exhalation rates of 222Rn. Several of the materials had hazard indexes that exceeded the European Commission limit values. However, it was evident that limit values for internal hazard indexes set based on Rn emanation should take into account the properties and use of the materials. For example, Rn emanation from basalt and glazed tiles was substantially lower than the Rn emanation from other materials with similar hazard indexes. Clearly there is need for improved guidelines and regulations in this area.     

Approaches to semi-synthetic minimal cells: a review

Following is a synthetic review on the minimal living cell, defined as an artificial or a semi-artificial cell having the minimal and sufficient number of components to be considered alive. We describe concepts and experiments based on these constructions, and we point out that an operational definition of minimal cell does not define a single species, but rather a broad family of interrelated cell-like structures. The relevance of these researches, considering that the minimal cell should also correspond to the early simple cell in the origin of life and early evolution, is also explained. In addition, we present detailed data in relation to minimal genome, with observations cited by several authors who agree on setting the theoretical full-fledged minimal genome to a figure between 200 and 300 genes. However, further theoretical assumptions may significantly reduce this number (i.e. by eliminating ribosomal proteins and by limiting DNA and RNA polymerases to only a few, less specific molecular species). Generally, the experimental approach to minimal cells consists in utilizing liposomes as cell models and in filling them with genes/enzymes corresponding to minimal cellular functions. To date, a few research groups have successfully induced the expression of single proteins, such as the green fluorescence protein, inside liposomes. Here, different approaches are described and compared. Present constructs are still rather far from the minimal cell, and experimental as well as theoretical difficulties opposing further reduction of complexity are discussed. While most of these minimal cell constructions may represent relatively poor imitations of a modern full-fledged cell, further studies will begin precisely from these constructs. In conclusion, we give a brief outline of the next possible steps on the road map to the minimal cell.

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Mapping species distributions in one dimension by non-homogeneous hidden Markov models: the case of freshwater pearl mussels in the River Dee

The investigation of species distributions in rivers involves data which are inherently sequential and unlikely to be fully independent. To take these characteristics into account, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for mapping the distribution of freshwater pearl mussels in the River Dee (Scotland). At the top of the hierarchy the likelihood is used to describe the sequence of sites in which mussels were observed or not. Given that false observations can occur, and that “not observed” means both that the species was not present and that it was not observed, a Markov prior is introduced at the second level of the hierarchy to represent the sequence of sites in which mussels are estimated to occur. The Markov prior allows modelling the spatial dependency between neighbouring sites. A third level in the hierarchy is given by the representation of the transition probabilities of the Markov chain in terms of site-specific explanatory variables, through a logistic regression. The selection of the explanatory variables which influence the Markov process is performed by means of a simulation-based procedure, in the complex case of association between covariates. Four features were found to be associated with reduced chance of finding a local mussel population: tributaries, bridges, dredging, and waste water treatment works. These results complement the results of a previous study, providing new evidence for the causes of the deterioration of a highly threatened species.     

L'Aquila's reconstruction challenges: has Italy learned from its previous earthquake disasters?

Italy is an earthquake‐prone country and its disaster emergency response experiences over the past few decades have varied greatly, with some being much more successful than others. Overall, however, its reconstruction efforts have been criticised for being ad hoc, delayed, ineffective, and untargeted. In addition, while the emergency relief response to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009—the primary case study in this evaluation—seems to have been successful, the reconstruction initiative got off to a very problematic start. To explore the root causes of this phenomenon, the paper argues that, owing to the way in which Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has politicised the process, the L'Aquila reconstruction endeavour is likely to suffer problems with local ownership, national/regional/municipal coordination, and corruption. It concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at addressing the pitfalls that may confront the L'Aquila reconstruction process over the next few years.     

Assessment of the radiological impacts of a zircon sand processing plant

The paper presents the results of a study on radiological impacts resulting from a zircon sand processing plant located in the North-Eastern part of Italy. Activity concentrations of radionuclides found in materials associated with this industrial process are presented as well as the results of the assessment of the annual effective doses to the workers and the members of the public. Gamma-spectrometric analyses were performed on "raw" sands, end-products, and soils sampled near the plant. Thermoluminescent dosimeters, electric pumps and electret ion chambers were used to measure the external irradiation, the indoor dust concentrations and the radon concentrations, respectively. The ground-level air concentration of radioactive particulate near the plant and the deposition of particulate matter were estimated by a Gaussian model (ISCLT3). Finally, the annual effective doses, calculated as provided for by Directive 96/29/Euratom, were estimated to be 1.7 mSv y(-1) for workers and 4.4 microSv y(-1) for members of the public.     

Perspectives on social capacity building for natural hazards: outlining an emerging field of research and practice in Europe

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. By way of conclusion, we encourage more research on social capacity building for natural hazards in the European context which at present is highly diverse and, at least in parts, only poorly investigated.     

Detectability of the Eurasian otter by standard surveys: an approach using marking intensity to estimate false negative rates

False negative detections may bias the surveys for rare species and reduce the reliability of models based on the proportion of occupied patches. We assessed the detectability of the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra through the standard survey method by analysing the detection history of 28 sampling stretches surveyed monthly between March 2001 and January 2003. Each survey negative for otter spraints was considered as a false negative if the otter had been recorded in the previous and/or following month (respectively, cFN and FN). Otter marking intensity (MI) (MI=N° of spraints per kilometre) was calculated and assumed to represent an index of its relative abundance. Spraints were found in 81.7% of all surveys. Yearly MI ranged from 1.02 to 101.4 spraints per kilometre. In 2002, mean MI was significantly lower than in the previous year, while no clear seasonal trend could be outlined. The minimum number of surveys required to establish the occurrence of the otter, as estimated by a probability model, was 2.6 and was inversely related to MI. For a sub-sample of 18 sampling stretches, the relation between the frequency of both cFN and FN and five variables of potential interest for otters was tested by means of stepwise linear multiple regressions, yielding two highly significant models, which both included only MI as the explanatory variable. The frequency of both FN and cFN was correlated to MI and the resulting equations used to assess the percentage of surveys positive for otters in both years. After the correction for non-detections, otter site occupancy did not vary between the 2 years, except for one river when applying the more conservative estimate of false negatives (cFN). Multiple visits and the assessing of MI should become standard components of otter surveys. This approach has broad applicability and may be applied to assess the large-scale distribution of other rare or elusive mammalian carnivores.