EFFECT OF ORIENTATION OF SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED CURVE NUMBERS IN RUNOFF CALCULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The NRCS curve number approach to runoff estimation has traditionally been to average or “lump” spatial variability into a single number for purposes of expediency and simplicity in calculations. In contrast, the weighted runoff curve number approach, which handles each individual pixel within the watershed separately, tends to result in larger estimates of runoff than the lumped approach. This work proposes further enhancements that consider not only spatial variability, but also the orientation of this variability with respect to the flow aggregation pattern of the drainage network. Results show that the proposed enhancements lead to much reduced estimates of runoff production. A revised model that considers overland flow lengths, consistent with existing NRCS concepts is proposed, which leads to only mildly reduced runoff estimates. Although more physically‐based, this revised model, which accounts directly for spatially distributed curve numbers and flow aggregation, leads to essentially the same results as the original, lumped runoff model when applied to three study watersheds. Philosophical issues and implications concerning the appropriateness of attempting to disaggregate lumped models are discussed.     

Windows of opportunity: historical and ecological controls on Berberis thunbergii invasions

Attempts to determine characteristics that render habitats invasible to nonnative species have met with limited success. This may be because most studies focus on modern habitat conditions and do not consider invasibility in the context of a historically dynamic landscape in which both the abundance of a species and the invasibility of a site may change. We surveyed 159 currently forested sites for the occurrence and abundance of Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry), an invasive, nonnative shrub in forests of the northeastern United States, relative to modern environmental conditions, contemporary logging activity, and two periods of historical land use. Berberis thunbergii occurred more frequently and was more abundant in post-agricultural forests than in continuously wooded sites. This relationship was stronger for agricultural sites that were abandoned and reforested after B. thunbergii was introduced to the region than for sites that reforested prior to B. thunbergii introduction. In contrast, recent forest harvesting did not influence the occurrence or abundance of B. thunbergii. Modern soil fertility explained a significant portion of the variation in B. thunbergii occurrence, whereas site history considerably improved predictions of population density and helped evaluate potential invasion mechanisms. While land-use history covaries with soil fertility and distance to putative seed sources, the strong relationship between modern abundance patterns and historical agriculture suggests that B. thunbergii colonized recently abandoned agricultural lands in the early 20th century and then persisted and spread locally during subsequent reforestation. Our results indicate that interpretations of both native community composition and modern plant invasions must consider the importance of historical landscape changes and the timing of species introduction along with current environmental conditions.     

Glacier Variability (1967‐2006) in the Teton Range,Wyoming, United States1

Edmunds, Jake, Glenn Tootle, Greg Kerr, Ramesh Sivanpillai, and Larry Pochop, 2011. Glacier Variability (1967‐2006) in the Teton Range, Wyoming, United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 187‐196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00607.x Abstract: Glacier area and volume changes were quantified through the use of historical aerial photographs in Wyoming’s Teton Range. Glacier area changes in the Teton Range were estimated for three glaciers using unrectified aerial photography from 1967 to 2006. The total surface area of the three glaciers was 0.53 km² in 1967 and 0.40 km² in 2006, a decrease of 25% during the 39‐year period. The smallest glacier, Teepe, experienced the greatest area loss (60 ± 3%), whereas the largest glacier, Teton Glacier, lost 17 ± 3% of the 1967 area. For the current research, aerial photography from 1967 to 2002 was used to estimate glacier volume loss using stereoscopy techniques. The aerial photographs provide a finer resolution when compared with other datasets including satellite imagery (e.g., Landsat). Volume loss for the three glaciers was estimated to be 3.20 ± 0.46 million cubic meters over the period of 1967 to 2002. In assessing the primary climatic driver of the glacier ice loss, observed summer (June, July, and August) temperature data showed a statistically significant increase in temperatures when comparing the period of study (1968 to 2006) with historical temperatures from 1911 to 1967. When comparing spring (April 1st Snow Water Equivalent) snowpack for the period of study with historical records beginning in 1931, a significant difference in snowpack was not observed.     

Tamarix and Diorhabda Leaf Beetle Interactions: Implications for Tamarix Water Use and Riparian Habitat

Tamarix leaf beetles (Diorhabda carinulata) have been widely released on western United States rivers to control introduced shrubs in the genus Tamarix, with the goals of saving water through removal of an assumed high water‐use plant, and of improving habitat value by removing a competitor of native riparian trees. We review recent studies addressing three questions: (1) to what extent are Tamarix weakened or killed by recurrent cycles of defoliation; (2) can significant water salvage be expected from defoliation; and (3) what are the effects of defoliation on riparian ecology, particularly on avian habit? Defoliation has been patchy at many sites, and shrubs at some sites recover each year even after multiple years of defoliation. Tamarix evapotranspiration (ET) is much lower than originally assumed in estimates of potential water savings, and are the same or lower than possible replacement plants. There is concern that the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax trailli extimus) will be negatively affected by defoliation because the birds build nests early in the season when Tamarix is still green, but are still on their nests during the period of summer defoliation. Affected river systems will require continued monitoring and development of adaptive management practices to maintain or enhance riparian habitat values. Multiplatform remote sensing methods are playing an essential role in monitoring defoliation and rates of ET on affected river systems.     

Site examination for threatened and endangered plant species

A procedure is described for conducting floristic examinations of prospective sites of development in order to determine the presence of threatened and/or endangered plant species. The timed meander search procedure provides information to document the level of effort expended in the examination as well as to describe the floristic resources of the site. Tests of the procedure during the 1979 and 1980 field seasons have demonstrated its value both as a means of discovering threatened and endangered species on a site and as a means of documenting a low probability of occurrence of such species if not found during application of the procedure.     

Monitoring total suspended solids by using nephelometry

Correlation curves were developed relating nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) with total suspended solids (TSS) for diked upland dredged material placement site effluents of three US Army Corps of Engineers (COE) maintenance dredging projects in the Chesapeake Bay, Maryland. The procedure was developed in an effort to ensure compliance with Maryland's 400 milligrams per liter (mg/l) TSS standard for COE dredging projects. Samples of the sediments to be dredged were collected and analyzed, correlating turbidity readings with TSS determined by standard gravimetric techniques. The correlation curves were provided to the COE inspectors to measure the effluent with a turbidity meter and to extract a TSS concentration from the correlation curve. Samples collected and analyzed after initiation of the dredging indicated that the correlation curves were an overestimate of the actual TSS concentrations of the effluent discharges. The procedure, endorsed by the State of Maryland, provided immediate on-site TSS analysis eliminating the previously encountered delays in obtaining gravimetric analysis of effluent discharges and potential contract management problems.     

The CPCAT as a novel tool to overcome the shortcomings of NOEC/LOEC statistics in ecotoxicology: a simulation study to evaluate the statistical power

Species reproduction is an important determinant of population dynamics. As such, this is an important parameter in environmental risk assessment. The closure principle computational approach test (CPCAT) was recently proposed as a method to derive a NOEC/LOEC for reproduction count data such as the number of juvenile Daphnia. The Poisson distribution used by CPCAT can be too restrictive as a model of the data-generating process. In practice, the generalized Poisson distribution could be more appropriate, as it allows for inequality of the population mean \(\mu\) and the population variance \(\sigma ^2\). It is of fundamental interest to explore the statistical power of CPCAT and the probability of determining a regulatory relevant effect correctly. Using a simulation, we varied between Poisson distribution (\(\mu =\sigma ^2\)) and generalized Poisson distribution allowing for over-dispersion (\(\mu <\sigma ^2\)) and under-dispersion (\(\mu >\sigma ^2\)). The results indicated that the probability of detecting the LOEC/NOEC correctly was \(\ge 0.8\) provided the effect was at least 20% above or below the mean level of the control group and mean reproduction of the control was at least 50 individuals while over-dispersion was missing. Specifically, under-dispersion increased, whereas over-dispersion reduced the statistical power of the CPCAT. Using the well-known Hampel identifier, we propose a simple and straight forward method to assess whether the data-generating process of real data could be over- or under-dispersed.     

Contrasting effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on coral-associated reef fishes

Disturbance can result in the fragmentation and/or loss of suitable habitat, both of which can have important consequences for survival, species interactions, and resulting patterns of local diversity. However, effects of habitat loss and fragmentation are typically confounded during disturbance events, and previous attempts to determine their relative significance have proved ineffective. Here we experimentally manipulated live coral habitats to examine the potential independent and interactive effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on survival, abundance, and species richness of recruitment-stage, coral-associated reef fishes. Loss of 75% of live coral from experimental reefs resulted in low survival of a coral-associated damselfish and low abundance and richness of other recruits 16 weeks after habitat manipulations. In contrast, fragmentation had positive effects on damselfish survival and resulted in greater abundance and species richness of other recruits. We hypothesize that spacing of habitat through fragmentation weakens competition within and among species. Comparison of effect sizes over the course of the study period revealed that, in the first six weeks following habitat manipulations, the positive effects of fragmentation were at least four times stronger than the effects of habitat loss. This initial positive effect of fragmentation attenuated considerably after 16 weeks, whereas the negative effects of habitat loss increased in strength over time. There was little indication that the amount of habitat influenced the magnitude of the habitat fragmentation effect. Numerous studies have reported dramatic declines in coral reef fish abundance and diversity in response to disturbances that cause the loss and fragmentation of coral habitats. Our results suggest that these declines occur as a result of habitat loss, not habitat fragmentation. Positive fragmentation effects may actually buffer against the negative effects of habitat loss and contribute to the resistance of reef fish populations to declines in coral cover.