Contrasting ecological information content in whaling archives with modern cetacean surveys for conservation planning and identification of historical distribution changes

Many species are restricted to a marginal or suboptimal fraction of their historical range due to anthropogenic impacts, making it hard to interpret their ecological preferences from modern-day data alone. However, inferring past ecological states is limited by the availability of robust data and biases in historical archives, posing a challenge for policy makers . To highlight how historical records can be used to understand the ecological requirements of threatened species and inform conservation, we investigated sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) distribution in the Western Indian Ocean. We assessed differences in information content and habitat suitability predictions based on whale occurrence data from Yankee whaling logs (1792–1912) and from modern cetacean surveys (1995–2020). We built maximum entropy habitat suitability models containing static (bathymetry-derived) variables to compare models comprising historical-only and modern-only data. Using both historical and modern habitat suitability predictions  we assessed marine protected area (MPA) placement by contrasting suitability in- and outside MPAs. The historical model predicted high habitat suitability in shelf and coastal regions near continents and islands, whereas the modern model predicted a less coastal distribution with high habitat suitability more restricted to areas of steep topography. The proportion of high habitat suitability inside versus outside MPAs was higher when applying the historical predictions than the modern predictions, suggesting that different marine spatial planning optimums can be reached from either data sources. Moreover, differences in relative habitat suitability predictions between eras were consistent with the historical depletion of sperm whales from coastal regions, which were easily accessed and targeted by whalers, resulting in a modern distribution limited more to steep continental margins and remote oceanic ridges. The use of historical data can provide important new insights and, through cautious interpretation, inform conservation planning and policy, for example, by identifying refugee species and regions of anticipated population recovery.     

Predicting Invasiveness of Plant Species Based on Biological Information

Abstract: Previous studies suggest that, within particular groups of plant species, biological attributes can be used to predict the potential invasiveness of species that are intentionally introduced for horticultural or agricultural purposes. We examined the broad question of whether commonly available biological information can predict the invasiveness of a wide range of intentionally and accidentally introduced species. We collected information from published floras on 165 pairs of plant species. In each pair, one species originated in Europe and successfully invaded New Brunswick, Canada, and the other was a congeneric species that has not invaded North America. Only three biological characters—lifeform, stem height, and flowering period—and European geographic range were known for all species. We conducted multiple logistic regression analyses using two-thirds (110) of the species pairs and tested the predictive ability of resulting models using the remaining 55 pairs. Although a significant logistic regression model was obtained using the biological attributes, the model could not predict invasiveness of the test species pairs. In contrast, a model using only European range successfully predicted invasiveness in 70% of the test species. The importance of geographic range suggests that prediction of invasiveness on a species-by-species basis is not likely to help stem the flow of accidentally introduced invasive species. Species that are inadvertently picked up and moved to a new location due to their wide distribution are the same species that are likely to succeed in a new environment due to their wide environmental tolerances.     

Spatial selection and inheritance: applying evolutionary concepts to population dynamics in heterogeneous space

Organisms in highly suitable sites generally produce more offspring, and offspring can inherit this suitability by not dispersing far. This combination of spatial selection and spatial inheritance acts to bias the distribution of organisms toward suitable sites and thereby increase mean fitness (i.e., per capita population increase). Thus, population growth rates in heterogeneous space change over time by a process conceptually analogous to evolution by natural selection, opening avenues for theoretical cross-pollination between evolutionary biology and ecology. We operationally define spatial inheritance and spatial selective differential and then combine these two factors in a modification of the breeder's equation, derived from simple models of population growth in heterogeneous space. The modified breeder's equation yields a conservative criterion for persistence in hostile environments estimable from field measurements. We apply this framework for understanding gypsy moth population persistence amidst abundant predators and find that the predictions of the modified breeder's equation match initial changes in population growth rate in independent simulation output. The analogy between spatial dynamics and natural selection conceptually links ecology and evolution, provides a spatially implicit framework for modeling spatial population dynamics, and represents an important null model for studying habitat selection.     

The opportunity cost of regulating phosphorus from broiler production in the Illinois River Basin

The Illinois River Basin in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas is an example of a region where significant growth in poultry production has been accompanied by water quality problems. The primary concern in the basin is the problem of phosphorus in runoff that is associated with application of litter to crops. Existing data suggest that there has been a continuing decline in the quality of water in the Illinois River, and discussions have focused on developing and implementing a phosphorus standard. The specific objectives of this study are to estimate the reduction in poultry production necessary to achieve the reduction in phosphorus runoff under a set of phosphorus constraints, including soil test phosphorus, and to estimate the opportunity costs of reducing poultry production in the basin under each phosphorus constraint on the economic activity in the watershed. A mathematical programming model that incorporates poultry production and cropping decisions is developed. The parameters for the model are identified and then it is solved to provide a base solution. Model solutions are then developed for the different policy target levels of phosphorus. The model structure is modified to account for the presence of soil test phosphorus levels and the corresponding limits on soil test phosphorus throughout the basin. This formulation includes current soil test phosphorus throughout the basin. All of the applications assume that the only disposal option for poultry litter is land application within the basin. An economic impact assessment of the effects of phosphorus limitations in the basin is also conducted for Arkansas counties only, Oklahoma counties only, and all five affected counties combined.     

Parental supervision of teenage drivers in a graduated licensing system

OBJECTIVES: Most states now have lengthy learner periods for young, beginning drivers as part of their graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems. Although parents play a vital role during the learner stage of GDL by supervising driving practice, virtually nothing is known about the nature and quality of parental supervision. The objectives of this study were to investigate parents' supervisory behavior and parent-teen relationships during the learner stage of graduated licensing and to evaluate two approaches for assisting parents in supervising their teenager's early driving experience. METHODS: Families of teenagers applying for a learner permit received either a booklet describing highly structured practice sessions for beginning drivers, a series of "tip sheets" offering more generalized guidance, or no special materials. Questionnaires were sent separately to parents and teenagers three to six months after teenagers obtained their permit. RESULTS: Of 1,190 participating families, 653 parents (55%) and 609 teenagers (51%) responded. Both parents and teenagers perceived parents as supportive and helpful during driving sessions. Parents often demonstrated positive behaviors, such as complimenting their teenager and pointing out possible hazards; they also exhibited less desirable behaviors, such as raising their voice, but these were less frequent. A majority of parents (71%) and teenagers (52%) reported that they enjoyed spending this time together. About four months after obtaining a permit, most parents believed their teenager did not yet have enough experience and was not ready to drive unsupervised. Although the reported behaviors are encouraging, within-family agreement was low on most items. Finally, efforts to assist parents proved unsuccessful. Although parents thought the booklet and tip sheets were helpful, most used these materials only in a general way. CONCLUSIONS: The extended learning experience required by GDL programs is a positive experience for many families. However, finding a method for helping parents achieve maximum benefits during this process will be challenging. The results also suggest that current requirements in the learner phase of most state GDL systems (six months; 30-50 hours) may be inadequate to ensure that teenagers obtain a sufficient amount of experience to begin driving safely on their own.     

Bacterial Production of Polyesters from Free Fatty Acids Obtained from Natural Oils by Pseudomonas oleovorans

The carboxylic acids derived from olive oil, hazelnut oil, sesame oil and hamci(anchovy) oil were evaluated as substrates for cell growth and the production of reserve polyesters by Pseudomonas oleovorans. Poly-3-hydroxy alkanoates containing both saturated(mainly 3-hydroxy-octanoate and 3-hydroxy-decanoate) and unsaturated repeating units with 8 to 20 carbon atoms, or more, were produced in 26 to 61% yields based on cell dry weights. The number average molecular weights of these polymers varied from 45,000 to 68,000 Daltons.     

Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States,and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate revised estimates and projections of United States annual Down syndrome (DS) births for 1970–2002, and (2) estimate the effects of amniocentesis on these baseline DS birth projections. Three models of amniocentesis utilization among 30–34 and ≧ 35-year-old women were considered. The recently revised Census Bureau birth projections, and new single year maternal age DS risk rates estimated from a 1970–1983 Ohio data set, were used. Data from all three Census Bureau projection series were analysed; series II was considered in depth since it is consistent with recent fertility levels. Assuming no use of amniocentesis, total estimated DS births dropped from about 4770 in 1970 to 4120 in 1980 (a 14 per cent decline), but are projected to a plateau of about 5100 by the year 1990 (a 24 per cent increase). DS births to women ≧ 35 would increase dramatically from about 1050 in 1980 to 1900 in 2000 (an 81 per cent increase). Assuming 1983 Ohio prenatal diagnosis ratios for women aged 30–34 (1.7 per cent) and ≧ 35 (23.4 per cent) are used nationally, an annual reduction of about 7 per cent of DS births in 1986 and 9 per cent in 2002 would result. Fifty and 70 per cent utilization among women 30–34 and 235, respectively, would reduce DS births by about 33 per cent in 1986 and 38 per cent in 2002. Therefore, if the projected increase in DS births is to be averted, utilization of prenatal diagnosis by ≧ 30-year-old women must increase substantially.     

Male and female developmental differences in chemosensory investigations by African elephants (Loxodonta africana) approaching waterholes

Although communication is vital for members of a social species, the sexes may differ in the type and degree of information sought. In many polygynous societies, males search for reproductively active females and compete intrasexually for access to females with older males often being most successful. In social mammals, females may mature sooner than males and thus at an earlier age behave more like adults. This maturation may include the assessment of potential mates directly or via indicative signals. In this study, we observed the behavior of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) during their approach to waterholes. Waterholes provide an opportunity for elephants to investigate conspecific chemical signals from feces and urine, and each other. We examined the presence of sexual dimorphism in behaviors of the trunk that are indicative of olfactory investigation. We predicted that upon approach to a waterhole, adult males would show greater interest than females in conspecific chemical signals. Females were predicted and observed to exhibit adult-like rates of investigatory behavior at a younger age than males because females mature sooner. Adult males took the longest to reach the waterhole in the last 100 m of approach; they also demonstrated greater investigatory rates to conspecific feces. Each sex showed adult-type investigative behaviors with the trunk before the age of reproduction. Rather than showing a common chronological developmental pattern across sex, the exhibition of investigatory, chemosensory behaviors reflected sex-specific changes in reproductive development, perhaps reflective of the relative strength of intra- and intersexual selection on communication patterns.     

Pricing Policy for Tourism in Protected Areas: Lessons from Komodo National Park, Indonesia

Abstract: Protected areas are under increasing pressure to provide economic justification for their existence, particularly in developing countries where demand for land and natural resources is high. Nature-based tourism offers a mechanism to generate substantial benefits from protected areas for both governments and local communities, and ecotourism is increasingly promoted as a sustainable use of protected areas. The extent to which ecotourism offsets the costs of a protected area has rarely been examined. We used financial data from Komodo National Park, Indonesia, and a willingness-to-pay questionnaire of independent visitors to (1) examine the financial contribution of tourism in offsetting the costs of tourism and wider management and (2) assess the effect of hypothetical fee increases on park revenues, visitation patterns, and local economies. Although only 6.9% of park management costs were recovered, visitors were willing to pay over 10 times the current entrance fee, indicating a substantial potential for increased revenue. The potential negative effect of large fee increases on visitor numbers and the resultant effect on local economic benefits from tourism may limit the extent to which greater financial benefits from Komodo National Park (KNP) can be realized. Our results suggest that a moderate, tiered increase in entrance fees is most appropriate, and that partial revenue retention by KNP would help demonstrate the conservation value of tourism to both visitors and managers and has the potential to increase visitors' willingness to pay.