Common challenges for ecological modelling: Synthesis of facilitated discussions held at the symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada, (October 6-9, 2009)

The eleven symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) held in Quebec City, Canada, October 6-9, 2009, included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three broad categories: theoretical development, population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Following discussions with the symposia organizers, which indicated that they all shared similar issues and concerns, the facilitated discussions were task-oriented around four basic questions: (1) key challenges in the research area, (2) generating and sharing new ideas, (3) improving collaboration and networking, and (4) increasing visibility to decision-makers, partners and clients. Common challenges that emerged from the symposia included the need for improved communication and collaboration among different academic disciplines, further progress in both theoretical and practical modelling approaches, and accentuation of technology transfer. Regarding the generation and sharing of new ideas, the main issue that emerged was the type of positive interactions that should be encouraged among potential collaborators. The usefulness of the Internet, particularly for the sharing of open-source software and conducting discussion forums, was highlighted for improving collaboration and networking. Several communication tools are available today, and it is important for modellers to use them more intensively. Visibility can be increased by publishing professional newsletters, maintaining informal contacts with the public, organizing educational sessions in primary and secondary schools, and developing simplified analytical frameworks and pilot studies. Specific issues raised in each symposium are also discussed.     

Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep

Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations.     

The acceleration of flames in tube explosions with two obstacles as a function of the obstacle separation distance

The separation distance (or pitch) between two successive obstacles or rows of obstacles is an important parameter in the acceleration of flame propagation and increase in explosion severity. Whilst this is generally recognised, it has received little specific attention by investigators. In this work a vented cylindrical vessel 162 mm in diameter 4.5 m long was used to study the effect of separation distance of two low blockage (30%) obstacles. The set up was demonstrated to produce overpressure through the fast flame speeds generated (i.e. in a similar mechanism to vapour cloud explosions). A worst case separation distance was found to be 1.75 m which produced close to 3 bar overpressure and a flame speed of about 500 m/s. These values were of the order of twice the overpressure and flame speed with a double obstacle separated 2.75 m (83 characteristic obstacle length scales) apart. The profile of effects with separation distance was shown to agree with the cold flow turbulence profile determined in cold flows by other researchers. However, the present results showed that the maximum effect in explosions is experienced further downstream than the position of maximum turbulence determined in the cold flow studies. It is suggested that this may be due to the convection of the turbulence profile by the propagating flame. The present results would suggest that in many previous studies of repeated obstacles the separation distance investigated might not have included the worst case set up, and therefore existing explosion protection guidelines may not be derived from worst case scenarios.     

Community Sustainability Plans to enable change towards sustainable practice – a Scottish case study

There is a need for a global shift towards a low-carbon society and this requires action at the local level. The aim of the study into sustainable community development is to clarify the role of a community as a whole rather than the role of individuals within that community. Mixed methods of literature review and empirical study have been used to translate the knowledge and experience with urban sustainable development into empirical knowledge of a rural, market town setting. The exemplary case study is the Scottish market town Huntly. The main findings of the study show the need for three ingredients for a Community Sustainability Plan for a town such as Huntly. Community involvement is crucial in developing such plans in a rural setting. Further research in more remote settings, e.g. coastal and island communities, is needed to allow broader conclusions on rural sustainable development.     

Solitary behavior in a high-altitude population of the social sweat bee Halictus rubicundus (Hymenoptera: Halictidae)

In the subalpine region of the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, United States, Halictus rubicundus has a solitary life cycle, but it is social in other parts of its known range. The brood is protandrous, with a nearly equal investment in the sexes. Productivity averages 6.5 offspring per foundress female, similar to the second brood of social nests in New York, but less than the combined productivity of both New York broods. Leucophora sp. (Diptera: Anthomyiidae) is the principal cause of brood mortality in Colorado. Foundress females in about half the nests survive until brood emerge as adults. Retention of these foundresses decreases offspring mortality by 68%. Comparable abilities to express solitary behavior with a single brood may characterize other eusocial halictine lineages that have successfully invaded high altitudes in the Rocky Mountains. The apparent inability to do this may help explain the absence of other eusocial halictine bees and polistine wasps at high altitudes, despite their success at lower elevations in the same mountains. Presence or absence of this ability may help explain latitudinal distributions of these lineages in North America. Holarctic distributions of lineages with eusocial behavior can be explained by migration as solitary populations from Eurasia to North America across Pleistocene Bering land bridges, with re-expression of double-brooded, eusocial behavior when the species then extended their ranges southward in North America. Received: 4 November 1994/Accepted after revision: 23 October 1995     

Homeward paths of displaced juvenile alligators as determined by radiotelemetry

Summary To test their ability to home without searching or wandering, 19 juvenile alligators were radiotracked after displacement to areas 1–10 home range diameters beyond their areas of familiarity. Movement rates varied inversely with vegetation density, and in some cases habitat barriers appeared to deflect an alligator's homeward path. However, failures to home occurred only in those cases where major habitat barriers separated an alligator from its home site. In all other cases the alligators headed directly homeward; at least 10 of these completed their homeward journeys. The orienting ability of the alligators was neither dependent on the conditions under which they were displaced, nor the environmental conditions prevailing after release. These observations support the hypothesis that alligators possess a true navigational ability.     

Emissions trading: An improved technique for air quality management

The emissions trading program was one of the first major regulatory reform efforts at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the Reagan Administration. This program is a set of guidelines for the states to develop federally approved transactions in discharge permits, called an Emission Reduction Credit. The rules governing emissions trading apply within a total ambient constraint or “pollution budget.” This paper provides a discussion of the emissions trading program as an improved technique for air quality management. The paper begins with a discussion of the concept of emissions trading and how the EPA emissions trading program fits into the U.S. Clean Air Act. It is then argued that emissions trading provides a more cost-effective set of implementation incentives in comparison to a “command and control” regulatory system. A number of important attributes of the emissions trading program are discussed, and estimates of cost reductions are provided. The current status of the implementation of the emissions trading program is discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of several legal, technical, and administrative obstacles to obtaining the efficiencies of emissions trading.     

Climate change,adaptive capacity and policy direction in the Canadian North: Can we learn anything from the collapse of the east coast cod fishery?

Scientific evidence gathered over the past five years suggests that northern Canada and the Arctic have undergone, and are undergoing, formidable environmental changes linked to global climate change. Environmental change in the north is expected to persist and intensify over the course of the next century. When large-scale environmental changes take place, they inevitably affect people, especially when the cultures and livelihoods of those people depend on their relationship with the environment. Managing the local impacts of these changes is a matter of adaptation. This paper discusses some of the policy implications of adaptation––government interventions aiming to build communities’ and regions’ capacities to adapt to environmental changes. Three arguments for adaptive capacity building interventions in the north are discussed, and these arguments are augmented by a comparative review of government reactions to the collapse of the cod fishery in Atlantic Canada. Reactive and proactive policy approaches are discussed, and it is suggested from the comparison that proactive approaches to intervention are desirable for building adaptive capacity.