Valuing deaths or years of life lost? Economic benefits of avoided mortality from early heat warning systems

The study aims to explore the main drivers influencing the economic appraisal of heat warning systems by integrating epidemiological modelling and benefit-cost analysis. To shed insights on heat wave mortality valuation, we consider three valuation schemes: (i) a traditional one, where the value of a statistical life (VSL) is applied to both displaced and premature mortality; (ii) an intermediate one, with VSL applied for premature mortality and value of a life year (VOLY) for displaced mortality; and (iii) a conservative one, where both premature and displaced mortality are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy, and then valued using the VOLY approach. When applying these three schemes to Madrid (Spain), we obtain a benefit-cost ratio varying from 12 to 3700. We find that the choice of the valuation scheme has the largest influence, whereas other parameters such as attributable risk, displaced mortality ratio, or the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of the heat warning system are less influential. The results raise the question of which is the most appropriate approach to value mortality in the context of heat waves, given that the lower bound estimate for the benefit-cost ratio (option iii using VOLY) is up to two orders of magnitude lower than the value based on the traditional VSL approach (option i). The choice of the valuation methodology has significant implications for public health authorities at the local and regional scale, which becomes highly relevant for locations where the application of the VOLY approach could lead to benefit-cost ratios significantly lower than 1. We propose that specific metrics for premature and displaced VOLYs should be developed for the context of heat waves. Until such values are available, we suggest testing the economic viability of heat warning systems under the three proposed valuation schemes (i–iii) and using values for VOLY commonly applied in air pollution as the health end points are similar. Lastly, periodical reassessment of heat alert plans should be performed by public health authorities to monitor their long-term viability and cost-effectiveness.     

Environmental Surveillance for Noroviruses in Selected South African Wastewaters 2015–2016: Emergence of the Novel GII.17

Norovirus (NoV) GII.4 is the predominant genotype associated with gastroenteritis pandemics and new strains emerge every 2–3 years. Between 2008 and 2011, environmental studies in South Africa (SA) reported NoVs in 63% of the sewage-polluted river water samples. The aim of this study was to assess whether wastewater samples could be used for routine surveillance of NoVs, including GII.4 variants. From April 2015 to March 2016, raw sewage and effluent water samples were collected monthly from five wastewater treatment plants in SA. A total of 108 samples were screened for NoV GI and GII using real-time RT-qPCR. Overall 72.2% (78/108) of samples tested positive for NoVs with 4.6% (5/108) GI, 31.5% (34/108) GII and 36.1% (39/108) GI + GII strains being detected. Norovirus concentrations ranged from 1.02 × 10² to 3.41 × 10⁶ genome copies/litre for GI and 5.00 × 10³ to 1.31 × 10⁶ genome copies/litre for GII. Sixteen NoV genotypes (GI.2, GI.3, GI.4, GI.5, GI.6, GII.2, GII.3, GII.4, GII.7, GII.9, GII.10, GII.14, GII.16, GII.17, GII.20, and GII.21) were identified. Norovirus GII.2 and GII.17 co-dominated and the majority of GII.17 strains clustered with the novel Kawasaki 2014 variant. Sewage surveillance facilitated detection of Kawasaki 2014 in SA, which to date has not been detected with surveillance in children with gastroenteritis <5 years of age. Combined surveillance in the clinical setting and environment appears to be a valuable strategy to monitor emergence of NoV strains in countries that lack NoV outbreak surveillance.     

Impact on sward composition and stock performance of grazing Molinia-dominant grassland

A comparative experiment was conducted to test the extent to which grazing of rank Molinia caerulea-dominated grassland increases botanical diversity and improves animal performance. The study was carried out on an area of under-grazed Molinia-dominant pasture that had not been stocked for 20 years. Three treatments were compared from 2001 until 2008: (1) no grazing, (2) grazing by Welsh Mountain sheep and (3) grazing by Welsh Black heifers. Patterns of change in sward surface composition across the grazing season were consistent with greater consumption of Molinia by the cattle, but there was little evidence of management regime influencing changes in sward composition year-on-year. There was a significant effect of year on animal performance (P < 0.001). Although the growth rates of the heifers improved over the course of the first three years of the experiment, this performance was not sustained. In contrast, any weight changes for the sheep were positive. The results highlight the slow pace of change within upland swards, and the need to develop site-specific grazing guidelines.     

Warm forming die design,part I: Experimental validation of a novel thermal finite element modeling code

Finite element analysis (FEA) has become an invaluable tool in the design of sheet metal stamping dies and processes. FEA has gained widespread acceptance as the best method of optimizing dies for conventional stamping processes. More recently, FEA has been shown to be an effective method of designing tooling for sheet forming processes. In this work, an FEA based approach is applied to the warm stamping (warm forming) process. This work introduces a new thermal finite element analysis software called PASSAGE®/Forming (PASSAGE) that enables the up-front design of the thermal management of warm forming dies. This thermal finite element analysis software is designed to specifically handle the forming and optimization scenarios related to the heating of a stamping die while minimizing user interface time. In this work, PASSAGE has been applied to a simple block of steel embedded with cartridge heaters to validate the prediction capability of this software under two different heating conditions. The results show that PASSAGE is capable of predicting the actual steady-state temperature distribution within the block with an acceptable level of accuracy while yielding notable information to the user with respect to specifying power requirements. A finite element software package like PASSAGE is a valuable tool that will aid greatly in the implementation of warm forming as a manufacturing process beyond the scope of the laboratory and into production.     

Dynamics of skeleton formation in the Lake Baikal sponge Lubomirskia baicalensis. Part II. Molecular biological studies

In a preceding study it has been reported that the freshwater sponge Lubomirskia baicalensis, living in Lake Baikal (East Siberia), is composed of spicules forming a characteristic pattern which follows radiate accretive growth. Here we report that the spicules are synthesized by the enzyme silicatein, a protein which is related to cathepsin L. The cDNAs for silicatein and the related cathepsin L were isolated and used as probes to show that the mRNA levels of silicatein in the bases of the spicule skeleton of the animals are low, while the mRNA level of cathepsin L in this region exceeds that of the growing zone. This is the first comprehensive study on the importance of the axial filament/silicatein as an essential structural and functional component determining the growth and stability of demosponge spicules.Note: Sequences from Lubomirskia baicalensis have been deposited in the EMBL/GenBank; cDNAs for the putative silicatein (LBSILICA) are deposited under the accession no. AJ786771 and for cathepsin L (LBCATL) under the accession no. AJ786770.