Efficiency of energy delivery systems: I. An economic and energy analysis

Energy-return-on-investment (ERI) analysis is a variation of more traditional cost-benefit analyses, a variation that is particularly important in times of diminishing fuel resources. We present a simple set of procedures for ERI analysis and apply those procedures to central New York State, where there is a proposal for a new 870 MW_e coal-fired generating station. We compared the energy and dollar costs of building that facility with the costs of an alternative comprehensive regional program of insulation. The analysis showed that regional insulation was more efficient in conserving energy than the plant was in providing it by at least a factor of 4 in economic terms and by a factor of more than 15 when viewed as energy returned on energy invested.     

IMPACT OF FLOOD HAZARD ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES IN GALT (CAMBRIDGE), ONTARIO1

ABSTRACT: This study is an examination of the relationship between flooding and property values for an urban community in southwestern Ontario which has a lengthy history of flooding. As well, peoples’perceptions of the effect of flooding on property values is discussed. Analysis of sales prices and assessment data demonstrated no statistically significant differences in values of property for residences located in high- and low-risk areas either before or after a major flood in 1974. With both the high- and low-risk areas, sales prices after the 1974 flood were significantly higher than sales prices before the flood. The perceived property values followed a similar pattern. We concluded that differences in flood risk and flood experience did not adversely affect actual or perceived long-term property values.     

MICRO-RELIEF SURFACE DEPRESSION STORAGE: ANALYSIS OF MODELS TO DESCRIBE THE DEPTH-STORAGE FUNCTION1

ABSTRACT: Micro-relief surface depression storage is one of the components of the rainfall-runoff process. The quantification of surface depression storage values and a depth-storage model to describe the storage was the subject of this study. Point measurement data were collected on 258 surfaces of 5 soils and three artificial surfaces. Five methods of computing storage, 15 depth-storage models, two depth increments, and six grid spacings were investigated. The 1-inch grid computational method, 0.1-inch depth increment, and 1-inch grid spacings were recommended. The surface depression storage function is best described by the model S = aD^b, which relates surface depression storage as a function of depth with two equation parameters. Equations for describing the surface depression storage model parameters have been developed.     

Considering science needs to deliver actionable science

Conservation practitioners, natural resource managers, and environmental stewards often seek out scientific contributions to inform decision-making. This body of science only becomes actionable when motivated by decision makers considering alternative courses of action. Many in the science community equate addressing stakeholder science needs with delivering actionable science. However, not all efforts to address science needs deliver actionable science, suggesting that the synonymous use of these two constructs (delivering actionable science and addressing science needs) is not trivial. This can be the case when such needs are conveyed by people who neglect decision makers responsible for articulating a priority management concern and for specifying how the anticipated scientific information will aid the decision-making process. We argue that the actors responsible for articulating these science needs and the process used to identify them are decisive factors in the ability to deliver actionable science, stressing the importance of examining the provenance and the determination of science needs. Guided by a desire to enhance communication and cross-literacy between scientists and decision makers, we identified categories of actors who may inappropriately declare science needs (e.g., applied scientists with and without regulatory affiliation, external influencers, reluctant decision makers, agents in place of decision makers, and boundary organization representatives). We also emphasize the importance of, and general approach to, undertaking needs assessments or gap analyses as a means to identify priority science needs. We conclude that basic stipulations to legitimize actionable science, such as the declaration of decisions of interest that motivate science needs and using a robust process to identify priority information gaps, are not always satisfied and require verification. To alleviate these shortcomings, we formulated practical suggestions for consideration by applied scientists, decision makers, research funding entities, and boundary organizations to help foster conditions that lead to science output being truly actionable.     

Experimental determination of sorption in fractured flow systems

Fracture "skins" are alteration zones on fracture surfaces created by a variety of biological, chemical, and physical processes. Skins increase surface area, where sorption occurs, compared to the unaltered rock matrix. This study examines the sorption of organic solutes on altered fracture surfaces in an experimental fracture-flow apparatus. Fracture skins containing abundant metal oxides, clays, and organic material from the Breathitt Formation (Kentucky, USA) were collected in a manner such that skin surface integrity was maintained. The samples were reassembled in the lab in a flow-through apparatus that simulated approximately 2.7 m of a linear fracture "conduit." A dual-tracer injection scheme was utilized with the sorbing or reactive tracer compared to a non-reactive tracer (chloride) injected simultaneously. Sorption was assessed from the ratio of the first temporal moments of the breakthrough curves and from the loss of reactive tracer mass and evaluated as a function of flow velocity and solute type. The breakthrough curves suggest dual-flow regimes in the fracture with both sorbing and non-sorbing flow fields. Significant sorption occurs for the reactive components, and sorption increased with decreasing flow rate and decreasing compound solubility. Based on moment analysis, however, there was little retardation of the center of solute mass. These data suggest that non-equilibrium sorption processes dominate and that slow desorption and boundary layer diffusion cause extensive tailing in the breakthrough curves.     

THE APPLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS TO SMALL WATERSHEDS HAVING MILD TOPOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: The application of hydrologic models to small watersheds of mild topography is not well documented. This study evaluates the applicability of hydrologic models described by Huggins and the Soil Conservation Service to small watersheds by comparing the simulated and actual hydrograph for both gaged and ungaged situations. The annual maximum rainfall events plus storms exceeding 2.5 inches from 25 years of rainfall and runoff data for two small watersheds were selected for the model evaluations. These storms had a variety of patterns and occurred on many different watershed conditions. Simulated and actual hydrographs were compared using a parameter which contained volume, peak, and shape factors. One-half of the selected storms were used to calibrate the models. For both models, there were no significant differences between the simulated and actual runoff volumes and peak runoff rates. Parameters obtained during the calibration process and relationships developed to estimate antecedent moisture and to modify tabulated runoff curve numbers were used to simulate the runoff hydrograph from the remaining storms. These remaining storms or test storms were simulated only once in order to imitate an ungaged situation. In general, both the Huggins and SCS model performed similarly on the test storms, but the level of model performance was lower than that for the calibration storms. For both models, the two-day antecedent rainfall was more important than the five-day in determining antecedent moisture and modifying tabulated curve numbers. The time of concentration which resulted in good hydrograph simulations was about three times larger than that estimated using published empirical relationships.     

The Real-World Safety Potential of Connected Vehicle Technology

Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.     

Relationship between abundance of rodents and damage to agricultural crops

Developing a relationship between pest abundance and damage to crops is essential for the calculation of economic injury levels (EIL) leading to informed management decisions. The crop modelling framework, APSIM, was used to simulate the impact of mouse damage on yield loss on wheat where a long-term dataset on the density of mice was available (1983–2003). The model was calibrated using results from field trials where wheat plants were hand clipped to imitate mouse damage. The grazing effect of mice was estimated using the population density, daily intake per mouse and the proportion of wheat grain and plant tissue in the diet to determine yield loss. The mean yield loss caused by mice was 12.4% (±5.4S.E.; range −0.5 to 96%). There were 7/21 years when yield loss was >5%. A damage/abundance relationship was constructed and a sigmoidal curve explained 97% of variation when accounting for different trajectories of mouse densities from sowing to harvest. The majority of damage occurred around emergence of the crop when mouse densities were >100 mice ha⁻¹. This is the first time that field data on mouse density and a crop simulation model have been combined to estimate yield loss. The model examines the efficacy of baiting and how to estimate EILs. Because the broadscale application of zinc phosphide is cheap and effective, the EIL is very low (<1% yield loss). The APSIM model is highly flexible and could be used for other vertebrate pests in a range of crops or pastures to develop density/damage relationships and to assist with management.     

Reflections on network governance in Africa's forestry sector

International forestry governance is an integral part of the global policy debates on how to prevent deforestation, illicit extraction, and unsustainable timber practices. Africa is an important producer of timber, yet the region is beset by a lack of capacity and other governance challenges in the management of its forestry sector. We employ a network governance analysis to examine the extent to which the evolution and operation of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and la Commission des Forêts d'Afrique Centrale (COMIFAC) have addressed governance challenges. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of these two leading examples of international forestry governance by introducing recent evidence and insights from Africa. We conclude with a policy‐relevant discussion of how the FSC and COMIFAC might enhance authority, legitimacy, and effectiveness and improve forestry governance in Africa and other parts of the world.