Population dynamics and control of invasive Spartina alterniflora: inference and forecasting under uncertainty

Managing invaded ecosystems entails making decisions about control strategies in the face of scientific uncertainty and ecological stochasticity. Statistical tools such as model selection and Bayesian decision analysis can guide decision-making by estimating probabilities of outcomes under alternative management scenarios, but these tools have seldom been applied in invasion ecology. We illustrate the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in a case study of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) invading Willapa Bay, Washington. To address uncertainty in model structure, we quantified the weight of evidence for two previously proposed hypotheses, that S. alterniflora recruitment varies with climatic conditions (represented by sea surface temperature) and that recruitment is subject to an Allee effect due to pollen limitation. By fitting models to time series data, we found strong support for climate effects, with higher per capita seedling production in warmer years, but no evidence for an Allee effect based on either the total area invaded or the mean distance between neighboring clones. We used the best-supported model to compare alternative control strategies, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and population dynamics. For a fixed annual removal effort, the probability of eradication in 10 years was highest, and final invaded area lowest, if removals targeted the smallest clones rather than the largest or randomly selected clones. The relationship between removal effort and probability of eradication was highly nonlinear, with a sharp threshold separating -0% and -100% probability of success, and this threshold was 95% lower in simulations beginning early rather than late in the invasion. This advantage of a rapid response strategy is due to density-dependent population growth, which produces alternative stable equilibria depending on the initial invasion size when control begins. Our approach could be applied to a wide range of invasive species management problems where appropriate data are available.     

Detecting and quantifying reductive dechlorination under monitored natural attenuation conditions

Field sampling and testing were used to investigate the relationship between baseline geochemical and microbial community data and in situ reductive dechlorination rates at a site contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE) and carbon tetrachloride (CTET). Ten monitoring wells were selected to represent conditions along groundwater flow paths from the contaminant source zone to a wetlands groundwater discharge zone. Groundwater samples were analyzed for a suite of geochemical and microbial parameters; then push‐pull tests with fluorinated reactive tracers were conducted in each well to measure in situ reductive dechlorination rates. No exogenous electron donors were added in these tests, as the goal was to assess in situ reductive dechlorination rates under natural attenuation conditions. Geochemical data provided preliminary evidence that reductive dechlorination of TCE and CTET was occurring at the site, and microbial data confirmed the presence of known dechlorinating organisms in groundwater. Push‐pull tests were conducted using trichlorofluoroethene (TCFE) as a reactive tracer for TCE and, in one well, trichlorofluoromethane (TCFM) as a reactive tracer for CTET. Injected TCFE was transformed to cis‐ and trans‐dichlorofluoroethene and chlorofluoroethene, and, in one test, injected TCFE was completely dechlorinated to fluoroethene (FE). In situ TCFE transformation rates ranged from less than 0.005 to 0.004/day. In the single well tested, injected TCFM was transformed in situ to dichlorofluoromethane and chlorofluoromethane; the TCFM transformation rate was estimated as 0.001/day. The results indicate that it is possible to use push‐pull tests with reactive tracers to directly detect and quantify reductive dechlorination of chlorinated ethenes and ethanes under monitored natural attenuation conditions, which has not previously been demonstrated. Transformation rate estimates obtained with these techniques should improve the accuracy of contaminant transport modeling. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Substrate catabolism related to reproduction in the bay scallop Argopecten irradians concentricus,as determined by O/N and RQ physiological indexes

Weight specific rates of oxygen consumption carbon dioxide production, and ammonia-N excretion, measured for a Florida population of the bay scallop Argopecten irradians concentricus between May and September, 1982 and October and November, 1983 were significantly correlated (P<0.0005) to environmental factors that co-varied seasonally with metabolic shifts related to reproduction. Mean O/N and CO₂/O₂ (RQ) molar ratios indicates that scallop energy metabolism varied over the course of the reproductive cycle. Resting stage individuals (May-early June) had RQ values close to 0.7, indicative of a predominantly lipid-based metabolism. During the initial stages of gametogenesis (late June-early July) scallops catabolized primarily carbohydrate, as evidenced by maximum O/N (>22) values and RQ values close to 1.0 RQ values >1.0 indicated a possible carbohydrate to lipid conversion during the period of cytoplasmic growth (late July-early September). As gametes matured and spawning commenced (late September-November), metabolism became primarily protein based, as indicated by O/N and RQ values around 9.0 and 0.8, respectively. This pattern of substrate catabolism supports existing data on the storage and utilization of specific energy reserves with respect to reproduction in this species.     

MAPPING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: For regional precipitation frequency analyses, methods are needed to spatially interpolate or smooth point intensity duration frequency (IDF) estimates at gage sites for the purposes of visualization and estimation at ungaged sites. In this study to update IDF estimates for Michigan, the assumption is made that for practical purposes, the entire state may be treated as a homogeneous region in which annual maximum precipitation is identically distributed at each site apart from a site‐specific scaling factor, commonly known as the index flood. Several interpolation and smoothing techniques are evaluated for IDF estimation at ungaged sites, including trend surface analysis, thin plate splines, inverse distance weighting, and several kriging algorithms. Ordinary block kriging is recommended as a practical and objective method for smoothing the variability in the index flood values and developing isopluvial maps.     

TQM and strategic environmental management

Beyond the avoided costs for noncompliance lies an area of economic opportunity. Strategic approaches are necessary to tap these opportunities, but only recently have the principles of Total Quality Management been considered for environmental applications. This article identifies common principles in strategic environmental planning and thematic bridges to TQM philosophies. By applying TQM to strategic environmental planning, an environmental manager can thus address both avoided cost and environmental opportunity to improve overall corporate strategic advantage.     

Nitrogen biogeochemistry in the Adirondack Mountains of New York: hardwood ecosystems and associated surface waters

Studies on the nitrogen (N) biogeochemistry in Adirondack northern hardwood ecosystems were summarized. Specific focus was placed on results at the Huntington Forest (HFS), Pancake-Hall Creek (PHC), Woods Lake (WL), Ampersand (AMO), Catlin Lake (CLO) and Hennessy Mountain (HM). Nitrogen deposition generally decreased from west to east in the Adirondacks, and there have been no marked temporal changes in N deposition from 1978 through 1998. Second-growth western sites (WL, PHC) had higher soil solution NO(3-) concentrations and fluxes than the HFS site in the central Adirondacks. Of the two old-growth sites (AMO and CLO), AMO had substantially higher NO(3-) concentrations due to the relative dominance of sugar maple that produced litter with high N mineralization and nitrification rates. The importance of vegetation in affecting N losses was also shown for N-fixing alders in wetlands. The Adirondack Manipulation and Modeling Project (AMMP) included separate experimental N additions of (NH4)2SO4 at WL, PHC and HFS and HNO3 at WL and HFS. Patterns of N loss varied with site and form of N addition and most of the N input was retained. For 16 lake/watersheds no consistent changes in NO(3-) concentrations were found from 1982 to 1997. Simulations suggested that marked NO(3-) loss will only be manifested over extended periods. Studies at the Arbutus Watershed provided information on the role of biogeochemical and hydrological factors in affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of NO(3-) concentrations. The heterogeneous topography in the Adirondacks has generated diverse landscape features and patterns of connectivity that are especially important in regulating the temporal and spatial patterns of NO(3-) concentrations in surface waters.     

Constructing vulnerability: the historical, natural and social generation of flooding in metropolitan Manila

Flooding is not a recent hazard in the Philippines but one that has occurred throughout the recorded history of the archipelago. On the one hand, it is related to a wider global ecological crisis to do with climatic change and rising sea levels but on the other hand, it is also the effect of more localised human activities. A whole range of socio-economic factors such as land use practices, living standards and policy responses are increasingly influencing the frequency of natural hazards such as floods and the corresponding occurrence of disasters. In particular, the reason why flooding has come to pose such a pervasive risk to the residents of metropolitan Manila has its basis in a complex mix of inter-relating factors that emphasise how the nature of vulnerability is constructed through the lack of mutuality between environment and human activity over time. This paper examines three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of an historical approach in understanding how hazards are generated; second, the degree of interplay between environment and society in creating risk; and third, the manner in which vulnerability is a complex construction.     

Biodegradation by Composting of Surface Modified Starch and PVA Blended Films

Several starch/PVA/glycerol polymer blends were prepared by a solution casting technique and examined for biodegradation by composting over 45 days. Within this time frame, the starch and glycerol components were fully degraded, leaving the PVA component essentially intact. The lowest PVA content film (20%) was selected as a polymer with enough PVA to impart important physical characteristics, but also enough starch to be considered biodegradable. The film characteristics were further improved by surface modification with chitosan. This modification did not interfere with the biodegradation of the starch component. Furthermore, there was slight evidence that PVA biodegradation had been initiated in composted, surface modified starch/PVA blends.     

Butyltins in shellfish, finfish, water and sediment from the Coos Bay estuary (Oregon, USA)

Butyltin was measured in tissue, water and sediment samples collected throughout Coos Bay estuary between 1986 and 1997. Butyltin-induced shell deformation in commercial oysters prompted this assessment. Butyltins are released from tributyltin oxide (TBTO)-containing boat paint. Clams from three sites contained tributyltin (TBT) levels ranging from 168 to 457 microg/kg in 1992-1994. Consequently, Oregon Health Division (OHD) issued a shellfish consumption advisory in 1995; it was rescinded in 1997 after US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revised the TBTO oral reference dose (RfD). The revised RfD changed the tissue screening level from 112 to 1120 microg TBT/kg. Fifty percent of sediment samples collected during 1991-1997 and analyzed for total butyltins (TotBT) exceeded the Puget Sound Dredge Disposal Analysis Screening Level (PSDDA SL) of 73 microg TBT/kg dw. TotBT at three shipyards selected for site assessment by EPA ranged from 24 to 68,613 microg/kg dw. Sediment and tissue butyltins have been decreasing in all but one area of the estuary.