A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.     

GENERAL-CIRCULATION-MODEL SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE SNOWPACK IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western U.S. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.     

ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.     

Revealing the Diversity of Natural Hydrologic Regimes in California with Relevance for Environmental Flows Applications

Alterations to flow regimes for water management objectives have degraded river ecosystems worldwide. These alterations are particularly profound in Mediterranean climate regions such as California with strong climatic variability and riverine species highly adapted to the resulting flooding and drought disturbances. However, defining environmental flow targets for Mediterranean rivers is complicated by extreme hydrologic variability and often intensive water management legacies. Improved understanding of the diversity of natural streamflow patterns and their spatial arrangement across Mediterranean regions is needed to support the future development of effective flow targets at appropriate scales for management applications with minimal resource and data requirements. Our study addresses this need through the development of a spatially explicit reach‐scale hydrologic classification for California. Dominant hydrologic regimes and their physio‐climatic controls are revealed, using available unimpaired and naturalized streamflow time‐series and generally publicly available geospatial datasets. This methodology identifies eight natural flow classes representing distinct flow sources, hydrologic characteristics, and catchment controls over rainfall‐runoff response. The study provides a broad‐scale hydrologic framework upon which flow‐ecology relationships could subsequently be established towards reach‐scale environmental flows applications in a complex, highly altered Mediterranean region.     

Source identification of personal exposure to fine particulate matter using organic tracers

Personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is due to both indoor and outdoor sources. Contributions of sources to personal exposure can be quite different from those observed at ambient sampling locations. The primary goal of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of using trace organic speciation data to help identify sources influencing PM2.5 exposure concentrations. Sixty-four 24-h PM2.5 samples were obtained on seven different subjects in and around Boulder, CO. The exposure samples were analyzed for PM2.5 mass, elemental and organic carbon, organic tracer compounds, water-soluble metals, ammonia, and nitrate. This study is the first to measure a broad distribution of organic tracer compounds in PM2.5 personal samples. PM2.5 mass exposure concentrations averaged 8.4 μg m^?3. Organic carbon was the dominant constituent of the PM2.5 mass. Forty-four organic species and 19 water-soluble metals were quantifiable in more than half of the samples. Fifty-four organic species and 16 water-soluble metals had measurement signal-to-noise ratios larger than two after blank subtraction.The dataset was analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the factors that account for the greatest variance. Eight significant factors were identified; each factor was matched to its likely source based primarily on the marker species that loaded the factor. The results were consistent with the expectation that multiple marker species for the same source loaded the same factor. Meat cooking was an important source of variability. The factor that represents meat cooking was highly correlated with organic carbon concentrations (r = 0.84). The correlation between ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5 exposure was relatively weak (r = 0.15). Time participants spent performing various activities was generally not well correlated with PCA factor scores, likely because activity duration does not measure emissions intensity. The PCA results demonstrate that organic tracers can aid in identifying factors that influence personal exposures to PM2.5.     

Compensating aboriginal cultural losses: An alternative approach to assessing environmental damages

We first identify six primary problems with conventional practice: lack of context, inadequate participation from aboriginal communities, exclusion of important losses, reliance on market-based measures, neglect of uncertainty, and inadequate treatment of time. We then propose a different approach to compensation, based on insights from the decision sciences and structured decision making. Using case-study examples, we discuss how the proposed approach might address common sources of cultural loss and, in a concluding section, summarize some of the implications for compensation agreements and for environmental management practices.     

A System to Monitor Climate Change with Epilithic Lichens

The issue of biological monitoring of the local consequences of anticipated global climate change is considered for the Central Negev Highlands, Israel. Epilithic lichens are suggested as biological monitors. The proposed methodology of such monitoring consists of a sampling scheme, including lichen measurement along transects on flat calcareous rocks, and construction of a trend detection index (TDI). TDI is a sum of lichen species cover with coefficients chosen so as to ensure maximum ability to detect global climate trends. Coefficients have been estimated in a study of lichens along an altitudinal gradient from 500 to 1000 m a.s.l. The gradient study demonstrated that the TDI index is performed better than other integrated indices. Recommendations on this system to monitor climate change with epilthic lichens are given. Measuring, for instance, a hundred transects in fifty plots (two transet per plot scheme) allows one to detect a climate-driven change in the epilithic lichen community corresponding to a 0.8 °C shift in annual mean temperature. Such resolution appears sufficient in view of global warming of 2.5 °C considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a realistic prediction for the end of the next century.     

Population biology of the annual grass Triplasis purpurea in relation to distance from shore on Staten Island, New York

Four populations of the native annual grassTriplasis purpurea were surveyed on coastal beaches along the south shore of Staten Island, NY, to determine the potential of this species to colonize shoreline habitats mostly devoid of other vegetation. If the species can establish and maintain dense populations, it may have conservation value for urban beaches disturbed by human activities. For two populations, survivorship, growth, and reproduction were monitored at different distances from shore to determine the ability of this species to maintain viable populations. At three sites,T. purpurea occurred in >75% of all quadrats and the highest density was 1195 plants/m² at 74 m from shore in one recently disturbed site. Density generally increased with increasing distances from shore at low tide (from ca. 40–90 m). Plants showed the greatest growth and reproduction at close distances to shore (30–40 m); part of this effect was due to density in one population, but when density effects were removed statistically, there still remained a decline in growth and reproduction with increasing distance from shore. Improved vigor nearest to shore may be due to continual sand deposition. Survivorship showed a Type I pattern, with low mortality throughout the growing season. By colonizing newly-deposited and continually shifting sands,T. purpurea can contribute to the earliest stages of ecological succession along disturbed beaches in eastern North America and may be valuable to the development and management of urban coastal plant communities.     

Population biology of the annual grassTriplasis purpurea in relation to distance from shore on Staten Island, New York

Four populations of the native annual grassTriplasis purpurea were surveyed on coastal beaches along the south shore of Staten Island, NY, to determine the potential of this species to colonize shoreline habitats mostly devoid of other vegetation. If the species can establish and maintain dense populations, it may have conservation value for urban beaches disturbed by human activities. For two populations, survivorship, growth, and reproduction were monitored at different distances from shore to determine the ability of this species to maintain viable populations. At three sites,T. purpurea occurred in >75% of all quadrats and the highest density was 1195 plants/m² at 74 m from shore in one recently disturbed site. Density generally increased with increasing distances from shore at low tide (from ca. 40 – 90 m). Plants showed the greatest growth and reproduction at close distances to shore (30 – 40 m); part of this effect was due to density in one population, but when density effects were removed statistically, there still remained a decline in growth and reproduction with increasing distance from shore. Improved vigor nearest to shore may be due to continual sand deposition. Survivorship showed a Type I pattern, with low mortality throughout the growing season. By colonizing newly-deposited and continually shifting sands,T. purpurea can contribute to the earliest stages of ecological succession along disturbed beaches in eastern North America and may be valuable to the development and management of urban coastal plant communities.     

Influences of Water and Sediment Quality and Hydrologic Processes on Mussels in the Clinch River

Segments of the Clinch River in Virginia have experienced declining freshwater mussel populations during the past 40 years, while other segments of the river continue to support some of the richest mussel communities in the country. The close proximity of these contrasting reaches provides a study area where differences in climate, hydrology, and historic mussel distribution are minimal. The USGS conducted a study between 2009 and 2011 to evaluate possible causes of the mussel declines. Evaluation of mussel habitat showed no differences in physical habitat quality, leaving water and sediment quality as possible causes for declines. Three years of continuous water‐quality data showed higher turbidity and specific conductance in the reaches with low‐quality mussel assemblages compared to reaches with high‐quality mussel assemblages. Discrete water‐quality samples showed higher major ions and metals concentrations in the low‐quality reach. Base‐flow samples contained high major ion and metal concentrations coincident to low‐quality mussel populations. These results support a conceptual model of dilution and augmentation where increased concentrations of major ions and other dissolved constituents from mined tributaries result in reaches with declining mussel populations. Tributaries from unmined basins provide water with low concentrations of dissolved constituents, diluting reaches of the Clinch River where high‐quality mussel populations occur.