Improving watershed decisions using run-off and yield models at different simulation scales

Water managers face the daunting task of balancing limited water resources with over-subscribed water users among competing demands. They face the additional challenge of taking water planning decisions in an uncertain environment with limited and sometimes inaccurate observed and simulated hydrological data. Within South African watersheds, spatial parameterization data for hydrological models are now available at two different basin management resolutions (termed quaternary and quinary). Currently, water management decisions in the Crocodile River watershed are often made at a more coarse resolution, which may exclude crucial insights into the data. This research has the following aims (1) to explore whether model performance is improved by parameterization using a more detailed quinary-scale watershed data and (2) to explore whether quinary-scale models reduce uncertainty in allocation or restriction decisions to provide better informed water resources management and decision outcomes. This study used the Agricultural Catchments Research Unit (ACRU) agro-hydrological watershed model, to evaluate the effects of spatial discretization at the quaternary and quinary scales on watershed hydrological response and runoff within the Crocodile River basin. Model performance was evaluated using statistical comparisons of results using traditional goodness-of-fit measures such as the coefficient of efficiency (C _eff), root mean square of the error and the coefficient of determination (R ²) to compare simulated monthly flows and observed flows in six subcatchments. Traditional interpretation of these goodness-of-fit measures may be inadequate as they can be subjectively interpreted and easily influenced by the number of data points, outliers and model bias. This research utilizes a recently released model evaluation program (FITEVAL) which presents probability distributions of R ²and C _eff derived by bootstrapping, graphical representation of observed and simulated stream flows, incorporates statistical significance to detect the sufficiency of the R ²and C _eff and determines the presence of outliers and bias. While analyses indicate that the ACRU model performs marginally better when parameterized and calibrated at the quinary scale, the measurements at both scales show significant variability in predictions for both high and low flows that are endemic to southern African hydrology. The improved evaluation methods also allow for the analysis of data collection errors at monitoring sites and help determine the effect of data quality on adaptive water planning management decisions. Given that many water resource challenges are complex adaptive systems, these expanded performance analysis tools help provide deeper insights into matching watershed decision metrics and model-derived predictions.     

Is Eating Locally a Moral Obligation?

Advocates of eating locally offer a wide range of arguments in favor of the practice, but their ethical import is not always clear. Some locavore statements and arguments seem to imply a strong form of moral obligation; that eating locally is not merely instrumental to some other good, but has intrinsic value in its own right. This article examines standard arguments on behalf of eating locally, including arguments linked to the value of small farms and agrarianism, the environment, taste and health, trust, and relational markets. Most arguments put forward on behalf of eating locally value it instrumentally, the main exception being arguments based on relational markets. Although these arguments provide important motives for eating locally, the strength of obligation varies widely, and even the strongest arguments possess significant qualifications. While eating locally can play a role in reducing environmental impacts, this is not necessarily so, and once removed from instrumental considerations, eating locally is more likely at best an imperfect duty.     

Goodbye to natural resource-based livelihoods? Crossing the rural/urban divide

Life in proximity to a growing city can be especially difficult for those rural people who are poor. Findings from sustained research around three cities of the South illustrate how peri-urban conditions can create pressure for livelihood change. People were pressed further into a cash-based economy for which they were ill prepared. Surprisingly, agriculture remained important, even though urban expansion changed natural resource-based livelihoods, especially by taking land. The inevitable livelihood transitions were easier if there was support for both familiar and new natural resource-based activities, orienting production towards urban markets. Successful change was associated with greater diversification of income strands, rapid cash returns and bridging opportunities. Participatory planning of livelihood changes and local NGO inputs were advantageous. These findings are important for pro-poor development policy affecting peri-urban populations and may inform rural to urban migration policy.     

A quantitative global review of species population monitoring

Species monitoring, defined here as the repeated, systematic collection of data to detect long-term changes in the populations of wild species, is a vital component of conservation practice and policy. We created a database of nearly 1200 schemes, ranging in start date from 1800 to 2018, to review spatial, temporal, taxonomic, and methodological patterns in global species monitoring. We identified monitoring schemes through standardized web searches, an online survey of stakeholders, in-depth national searches in a sample of countries, and a review of global biodiversity databases. We estimated the total global number of monitoring schemes operating at 3300–15,000. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in the number of new schemes being initiated in lower- and middle-income countries and in megadiverse countries, but a decrease in high-income countries. The total number of monitoring schemes in a country and its per capita gross domestic product were strongly, positively correlated. Schemes that were active in 2018 had been running for an average of 21 years in high-income countries, compared with 13 years in middle-income countries and 10 years in low-income countries. In high-income countries, over one-half of monitoring schemes received government funding, but this was less than one-quarter in low-income countries. Data collection was undertaken partly or wholly by volunteers in 37% of schemes, and such schemes covered significantly more sites and species than those undertaken by professionals alone. Birds were by far the most widely monitored taxonomic group, accounting for around half of all schemes, but this bias declined over time. Monitoring in most taxonomic groups remains sparse and uncoordinated, and most of the data generated are elusive and unlikely to feed into wider biodiversity conservation processes. These shortcomings could be addressed by, for example, creating an open global meta-database of biodiversity monitoring schemes and enhancing capacity for species monitoring in countries with high biodiversity. Article impact statement: Species population monitoring for conservation purposes remains strongly biased toward a few vertebrate taxa in wealthier countries.     

Mating tactics and mating system of an aquatic-mating pinniped: the harbor seal, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phoca vitulina</Emphasis>

Our best understanding of marine mammal mating systems comes from land-mating pinnipeds. Logistical problems of observing behavior at sea have limited our ability to make inferences about species with aquatic-mating systems, which comprise over half the pinnipeds. The mating systems of these species likely involve different mating tactics than land-mating species. We used several methods in combination (e.g., animal-borne cameras, radio telemetry, time-depth recorders, and DNA paternity assessment) to provide a comprehensive study of the aquatic-mating tactics of harbor seal males. Males decreased time offshore (26.0 vs 14.8%) and increased time near shore (33.8 vs 43.7%) between premating and mating periods, respectively. Concomitantly, males reduced foraging effort and increased activities associated with competition for females (e.g., visual/vocal displays and threats). As females come into estrus near the end of lactation and spend more time at sea, males reduced their near-shore ranges (4.2 vs 1.0 km²), which were clustered within 1–1.5 km of the beach where females attended their pups. Body mass of males was not a major factor affecting their reproductive behavior. From a small number of paternity assignments to study males, it appears that females select males. These combined results are more consistent with a lek-type mating system than with the territorial or female defense systems characteristic of land-mating pinnipeds.     

Orchid bees don't need orchids: evidence from the naturalization of an orchid bee in Florida

Almost 200 species of orchid bees are the exclusive pollinators of nearly 700 specialized orchids in the neotropics. This well-known mutualism involves orchids, called perfume orchids, which produce species-specific blends of floral fragrances, and male orchid bees, which collect and use these fragrance compounds during their courtship. We report here the naturalization of an orchid bee, Euglossa viridissima, in southern Florida, USA, where perfume orchids are absent. Chemical analysis of the contents of the fragrance storage organs in the hind tibias of 59 male bees collected in Florida identified 55 fragrance compounds, including 27 known from the perfumes of nine species of E. viridissima's orchid mutualists in Mesoamerica. Aromatic leaves, such as basil, were found to be important surrogate sources of needed fragrance compounds in Florida. The bee's ability to live and become abundant in the absence of its orchid mutualists suggests that the orchid bee-perfume orchid mutualism may be facultative for the bees, even though it is obligatory for the orchids. This invasive bee visits and potentially pollinates the flowers of many plants in Florida, behavior that could promote the abundance of selected exotic and native species.     

Scientific research, stakeholders, and policy: continuing dialogue during research on radionuclides on Amchitka Island, Alaska

It is increasingly clear that a wide range of stakeholders should be included in the problem formulation phase of research aimed at solving environmental problems; indeed the inclusion of stakeholders at this stage has been formalized as an integral part of ecological risk assessment. In this paper, we advocate the additional inclusion of stakeholders in the refinement of research methods and protocols and in the execution of the research, rather than just at the final communication and reporting phase. We use a large study of potential radionuclide levels in marine biota around Amchitka Island as a case study. Amchitka Island, in the Aleutian Island Chain of Alaska, was the site of three underground nuclear tests (1965-1971). The overall objective of the biological component of the study was to collect a range of marine biota for radionuclide analysis that could provide data for assessing current food safety and provide a baseline for developing a plan to monitor human and ecosystem health in perpetuity. Stakeholders, including regulators (State of Alaska), resource trustees (US Fish and Wildlife Service, State of Alaska), representatives of the Aleut and Pribilof Island communities, the Department of Energy (DOE), and others, were essential for plan development. While these stakeholders were included in the initial problem formulation and approved science plan, we also included them in the refinement of protocols, selection of bioindicators, selection of a reference site, choice of methods of collection, and in the execution of the study itself. Meetings with stakeholders resulted in adding (or deleting) bioindicator species and tissues, prioritizing target species, refining sampling methods, and recruiting collection personnel. Some species were added because they were important subsistence foods for the Aleuts, and others were added because they were ecological equivalents to replace species deleted because of low population numbers. Two major refinements that changed the research thrust were (1) the inclusion of Aleut hunters and fishers on the biological expedition itself to ensure that subsistence foods and methods were represented, and (2) the addition of a fisheries biologist on a NOAA research trawler to allow sampling of commercial fishes. Although the original research design called for the collection of biota by Aleut subsistence fishermen, and by a commercial fishing boat, the research was modified with continued stakeholder input to actually include Aleuts and a fisheries biologist on the expeditions to ensure their representation. The inclusion of stakeholders during the development of protocols and the research itself improved the overall quality of the investigation, while making it more relevant to the interested and affected parties. Final responsibility for the design and execution of the research and radionuclide analysis rested with the researchers, but the process of stakeholder inclusion made the research more valuable as a source of credible information and for public policy decisions.     

Neuropsychiatric aspects of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: considerations in the prenatal setting

Most major neuropsychiatric outcomes of concern to families are not detectable by prenatal ultrasound. The introduction of genome-wide chromosomal microarray analysis to prenatal clinical diagnostic testing has increased the detection of pathogenic 22q11.2 deletions, which cause the most common genomic disorder. The recent addition of this and other microdeletions to non-invasive prenatal screening methods using cell-free fetal DNA has further propelled interest in outcomes. Conditions associated with 22q11.2 deletions include intellect ranging from intellectual disability to average, schizophrenia and other treatable psychiatric conditions, epilepsy, and early-onset Parkinson's disease. However, there is currently no way to predict how severe the lifetime expression will be. Available evidence suggests no major role in these neuropsychiatric outcomes for the congenital cardiac or most other structural anomalies that may be detectable on ultrasound. This article provides an outline of the lifetime neuropsychiatric phenotype of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome that will be useful to clinicians involved in prenatal diagnosis and related genetic counselling. The focus is on information that will be most relevant to two common situations: detection of a 22q11.2 deletion in a fetus or newborn, and new diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome in a parent without a previous molecular diagnosis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of Red-Backed Voles to Recent Patch Cutting in Subalpine Forest

We examined the response of southern red-backed voles ( Clethrionomys gapperi ) to patch cutting in a forested landscape in which 23% of the forest cover had been removed by timber harvest. We live trapped voles in and around 18 patchcuts in one watershed of southern Wyoming. Although we found a significant difference in capture rates between patchcut interior and forest habitats in 1 of 2 years, voles did not strongly avoid the interior of patchcuts. This result contrasts with results from most studies of voles in clearcut ecosystems, which report that red-backed voles are generally rare or absent from clearcuts. Capture rates were highest on both sides of the patchcut edge, which also contrasts with studies of voles at the edges of forest remnants. The use of patchcut interior and edge habitats could not be explained as a consequence of juvenile voles dispersing to those habitats or males moving through the habitat in search of mates. We suggest that, despite similar physiognomy in patchcut and clearcut sites, the differences in landscape structure in perforated versus fragmented landscapes lead to very different patterns of vole movement. Understanding the scales at which voles perceive landscapes as coarse- or fine-grained will be key to developing predictive models to aid managers in designing timber sales that maintain high vole populations. Our results emphasize the importance of the spatial pattern and scale of disturbance in determining the response of vertebrates to landscape change and the need for more refined investigations of the consequences of deforestation.