Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys.     

Physiological tolerances across latitudes: thermal sensitivity of larval marine snails (Nucella spp.)

A critical step in understanding how temperature will affect biodiversity in coastal ecosystems is to gain insight into how the tolerances, and ultimately survival, of early life history stages will influence the distribution and abundance of adults. We assessed the thermal tolerance of encapsulated veliger-stage larvae of a common dogwhelk, Nucella ostrina, that occur in the rocky intertidal zone on the west coast of North America. Results showed that veligers collected from northern latitudes in Washington State were less tolerant of heat stress than those from central sites in California. For all sites, we found there to be a subtle difference between the temperatures at which veligers first began to die compared to when veligers reached 100% mortality. On a biogeographic scale, the LT₅₀ temperatures, a measure of larval sensitivity, for N. ostrina veligers displayed a strong latitudinal trend. These findings provide a conservative measurement of the upper thermal limits of encapsulated veligers while illustrating how these early life history stages could be physiologically compromised under future climate warming scenarios.     

CONTRASTING WATER QUALITY FROM PAIRED DOMESTIC/PUBLIC SUPPLY WELLS,CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Closely located domestic and public supply wells were sampled using identical sampling procedures to allow comparison of water quality associated with well type. Water samples from 15 pairs of wells with similar screened intervals completed in the central High Plains regional aquifer in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were analyzed for more than 200 water quality constituents. No statistically significant differences were observed between the concentrations of naturally‐derived constituents (major ions, trace elements, and radon) in paired wells. However, differences in water quality between paired wells were observed for selected anthropogenic compounds (pesticides and tritium), in that some public supply wells produced water that was more recently recharged and contained constituents derived from surface activities. The presence of recently recharged water and compounds indicative of anthropogenic activities in some public supply wells was likely due to operational variations (pumping rate and pumping cycles), as demonstrated in a particle tracking simulation. Water containing surface‐derived anthropogenic compounds from near the water table was more quickly drawn to high volume public supply wells (less than five years) than domestic wells (greater than 120 years) with small pumping rates. These findings indicate that water quality samples collected from different well types in the same area are not necessarily directly comparable. Sampling domestic wells provides the best broad‐scale assessment of water quality in this aquifer setting because they are less susceptible to localized contamination from near the water table. However, sampling public supply wells better represents the quality of the used resource because of the population served.     

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution and protein ubiquitination for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus</Emphasis> congeners in the California hybrid zone

Along the west coast of North America, the invasive mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and a native congener M. trossulus overlap in range and compete for habitat in an extensive hybrid zone along central California. The two species have been shown to exhibit differential abiotic tolerances in laboratory studies, yet little is known about how such tolerances affect spatial and temporal patterns of geographic distribution, particularly in areas of competition. We examined distributions of the two congeners and their hybrids in neighboring intertidal and subtidal habitats in Bodega Bay, CA over 2 years, and compared shell length and seasonal ubiquitin (Ub) conjugates to estimate protein turnover and physiological stress for the species at each site. The two species were spatially segregated, with M. galloprovincialis dominating the subtidal habitat, and M. trossulus constituting a majority of the intertidal mussel population. Hybrid individuals appeared in low numbers at both sites. For each habitat, there was no statistical difference between shell lengths of M. galloprovincialis and hybrids but M. trossulus mussels were statistically smaller than the other two. In regards to physiological performance, ubiquitin conjugate values showed different seasonal cycles for the two species, suggesting different periods of peak environmental stress. The highest levels of Ub-conjugated proteins were observed in winter for M. galloprovincialis and in summer for M. trossulus, consistent with the respective range edges for their distributions since Bodega Bay is near the northern range edge of the invader and the southern edge of the native species. These findings suggest that future assessments of Mytilus populations along the California coast may need to consider vertical distributions and seasonal cycles as part of monitoring and research activities.     

Bee community shifts with landscape context in a tropical countryside.

The ongoing scientific controversy over a putative "global pollination crisis" underscores the lack of understanding of the response of bees (the most important taxon of pollinators) to ongoing global land-use changes. We studied the effects of distance to forest, tree management, and floral resources on bee communities in pastures (the dominant land-use type) in southern Costa Rica. Over two years, we sampled bees and floral resources in 21 pastures at three distance classes from a large (approximately 230-ha) forest patch and of three common types: open pasture; pasture with remnant trees; and pasture with live fences. We found no consistent differences in bee diversity or abundance with respect to pasture management or floral resources. Bee community composition, however, was strikingly different at forest edges as compared to deforested countryside only a few hundred meters from forest. At forest edges, native social stingless bees (Apidae: Meliponini) comprised approximately 50% of the individuals sampled, while the alien honeybee Apis mellifera made up only approximately 5%. Away from forests, meliponines dropped to approximately 20% of sampled bees, whereas Apis increased to approximately 45%. Meliponine bees were also more speciose at forest edge sites than at a distance from forest, their abundance decreased with continuous distance to the nearest forest patch, and their species richness was correlated with the proportion of forest cover surrounding sample sites at scales from 200 to 1200 m. Meliponines and Apis together comprise the eusocial bee fauna of the study area and are unique in quickly recruiting foragers to high-quality resources. The diverse assemblage of native meliponine bees covers a wide range of body sizes and flower foraging behavior not found in Apis, and populations of many bee species (including Apis), are known to fluctuate considerably from year to year. Thus, the forest-related changes in eusocial bee communities we found may have important implications for: (1) sustaining a diverse bee fauna in tropical countryside; (2) ensuring the effective pollination of a diverse native plant community; and (3) the efficiency and stability of agricultural pollination, particularly for short-time-scale, mass-flowering crops such as coffee.     

Too much of a good thing: Curvilinear effect of positive affect on proactive behaviors

Current organizational theory and research affirm the beneficial effects of experiencing positive affect at work. In recent years, researchers have begun to question the popular notion that the more positive affect at work, the better—that more positive affect is desirable for work‐related outcomes. In this article, we propose a rationale for why more positive affect may not be better for proactive behaviors at work. Findings from two field studies using two unique data sources demonstrate support for our hypothesis, suggesting that intermediate levels of positive affect are most beneficial for proactive behaviors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.