Inexact Fuzzy-Stochastic Programming for Water Resources Management Under Multiple Uncertainties

In this study, an interval-parameter fuzzy-stochastic two-stage programming (IFSTP) approach is developed for irrigation planning within an agriculture system under multiple uncertainties. A concept of the distribution with fuzzy-interval probability (DFIP) is defined to address multiple uncertainties expressed as integration of intervals, fuzzy sets, and probability distributions. IFSTP integrates the interval programming, two-stage stochastic programming, and fuzzy-stochastic programming within a general optimization framework. IFSTP incorporates the pre-regulated water resources management policies directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios; each scenario has different economic penalty when the promised amounts are not delivered. IFSTP is applied to an irrigation planning in a water resources management system. Solutions from IFSTP provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results indicate that reasonable solutions are generated for objective function values and decision variables; thus, a number of decision alternatives can be generated under different levels of stream flows.     

Occurrence of organotins in the Yangtze River and the Jialing River in the urban section of Chongqing, China

The occurrence of organotins in the Yangtze River and the Jialing River in the urban section of Chongqing, China and their impact on drinking water waterworks are reported in this study. Water samples were extracted by solid-phase microextraction and measured using a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometer. The results showed that the rivers studied were polluted by both butyltins and phenyltins and that the butyltin species was the dominant pollutant. Butyltins, especially monobutyltin, were detected in all 18 sampling stations, and phenyltins were detected only in 11 sampling stations. Majority of the organotins were MBTs with concentrations varying from 27.3 to 1,145.8 ng Sn L^?1. Diphenyltin and dibutyltin were the second most common with the highest levels of 113.7 and 202.5 ng Sn L^?1, respectively. Monophenyltin, tributyltin, and triphenyltin had the lowest detection rates with concentration levels of 9.7, 161.8, and 37.2 ng Sn L^?1, respectively. Some of the organotins were also detected in drinking water waterworks, which posed a threat to the water quality of Chongqing.     

Fluctuating asymmetry rather than oxidative stress in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bufo raddei</Emphasis> can be an accurate indicator of environmental pollution induced by heavy metals

Oxidative stress (OS) and fluctuating asymmetry (FA) as risk markers for environmental stress are widely used to predict changes in the health and fitness of many animals exposed to pollutants. However, from the perspective of protecting declining amphibians, it remains to be verified which one would be a reliable indicator for amphibians exposed to long-term heavy metal pollution under natural conditions. In this study, the OS and FA of Bufo raddei exposed to natural heavy metal pollution were analyzed to determine which marker is more accurate for indicating heavy metal-induced stress. Three years of data were collected during the breeding season of B. raddei from Baiyin (BY), which has been mainly contaminated with Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd compounds for a long period, and from Liujiaxia (LJX), which is a relatively unpolluted area. Unexpectedly, although significant accumulation of the four heavy metals was found in the kidney and liver of B. raddei from BY, the levels of superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase, and malondialdehyde in these two organs were found to be irregular, with low repeatability in both BY and LJX. However, significant differences in the levels of FA were observed in B. raddei populations from these two areas over the past 3 years (P < 0.01). The degrees of FA in B. raddei populations from BY and LJX were assessed as degree 4 and 1, respectively. In short, this study suggested that FA was a more reliable and effective indicator than OS to monitor and predict long-term environmental stress on anuran amphibians.     

Risk assessment and distribution of soil Pb in Guangdong, China

In this study, the spatial distributions of soil lead (Pb) concentration in three horizontal soils in Guangdong, China, were surveyed and analyzed using geostatistics and geography information systems (GIS). Findings indicated that the Pb geometric mean concentration of 23.3 mg/kg in surface soils was found to be higher than those in global soils, which ranged from 2.3–235 mg/kg. In addition, the Pb geometric mean concentrations from A- to C-horizon were found to be 23.3, 27.2, and 28.6 mg/kg, respectively. The classification of a soil Pb environmental risk in an area was likewise presented based on the different levels of environmental quality of Pb and was done by GIS technology. Accordingly, there is a higher local concentration of Pb in the surrounding areas of Guangzhou where there is higher population density and in the north of Guangdong, which is a historic mining area. The results obtained by the environmental risk assessment reveal that about 46% of total surveyed area was above the background value, that is, 2.7% of the total area was at risk of pollution.     

Using ecological memory as an indicator to monitor the ecological restoration of four forest plantations in subtropical China

A large area of plantations has been established worldwide and especially in China. Evaluating the restoration status of these plantations is essential for their long-term management. Based on our previous work, we used an ecological memory (EM) approach to evaluate four 26-year-old plantations that represent four common kinds of plantations in subtropical China, i.e., mixed broad-leaved plantation (MBP), mixed coniferous plantation (MCP), eucalyptus plantation (EP), and mixed legume plantation (MLP). Comparing them with the regional climax community, i.e., monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest (BF), all four plantations accumulated nearly the same pattern of EM during succession. EM was >50 % for soil minerals, light conditions, soil age, soil animals, and soil microbes. EM was about 25 % for soil pollen and 10 % for birds, soil seed bank, and plant species. The total EM value of the four plantations ranged from 50.96 to 52.54, which indicated that all four plantations were in the regional, natural trajectory of succession and between the early and medium successional stages. The results indicated that natural succession processes are unlikely to be accelerated by planting late-stage tree species without sufficient EM. The results also demonstrated that all four plantations were in positive successional trajectories, and the positive succession dynamics were greater in the MLP and MCP. We suggest that the entire natural succession trajectory be used to evaluate the restoration of a site and that the ultimate restoration target be divided into several milestones along the reference trajectory to monitor progress. Forest restoration may be accelerated by starting with a minimum dynamic unit supporting sufficient EM.     

Determination of organochlorine and organophosphate pesticide residues in fruits,vegetables and sediments

Abstract

A method is described for the determination of organochlorine and organophosphate pesticide residues in fruits, vegetables and sediments. The concentrated solvent extract was sealed in a polymeric membrane tube, dialysed in cyclohexane and the solvent replaced with hexane. The organophosphates were analysed on a specific thermionic detector without further clean‐up. For the organochlorine pesticides the extract was eluted through 3 g of alumina and analysed on GC/ECD. The clean‐up for sediment extract was carried out on a10 g alumina column with 100 mL hexane containing 5% acetone and the eluate was concentrated to 5 mL.

The detection limit for organophosphates on a 40 g sample and a final volume of 10 mL was on the average 0.01 mg/kg. The detection limit for organochlorine pesticides, with the final volume of 25 mL, was 0.005 mg/kg for all pesticides except for p,p'‐DDT and endosulfan sulphate, which was 0.01 mg/kg.

The detection limit for oganochlorine pesticides in sediment, with the final volume of 2 mL, was less than 1 μg/kg and for organophosphate pesticides less than 10 μg/kg when the final volume was made to 0.5 mL. At the detection limits the method produced a very high coefficient of variation for both organochlorine and organophosphate pesticides.     

由三个地震模式讨论1995年日本阪神大震的预报问题

本文由我们已往提出的三个地震模式讨论了１９９５年日本阪神大震（Ｍ７．２）的预报问题。这些模式是立交模式、组合模式和调制模式。此外还用柯里奥利力（Ｃｏｒｒｉｏｌｉ）的效应讨论了主震３年后最强余震的预报。     

炼厂隔油后污水的有机构成及混凝处理

采用GC/MS技术分析了炼厂隔油后污水的有机组成,并研究了不同混凝剂处理污水的效果,以及对有机构成的影响。结果表明,隔油后污水中的有机物质主要是C6–C8,其中酚类物质的含量最高;PAM和PAC混凝处理隔油后污水,可使污水中的有机物质总浓度及各物质的相对比例均发生变化,PAM降低烃类物质的效果好于PAC,而后者降低酚类物质的效果好于前者;在PAC处理污水时,同时投加少量活性炭可有效改变PAC脱除COD的性能。     

浅谈人的不安全行为控制

众所周知,事故的发生是由人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态共同作用的结果,其物理本质是一种意外释放的能量.随着科学技术的进步和生产工艺的改进,不少企业在实现物的本质安全化方面已取得较大进展.据工伤统计资料表明,我国企业工伤事故产生的原因有50%～85%与人的不安全行为有关.把物的客观因素与人的主观因素相比,人具有更大的"自由度",人的行为受多方面因素,诸如政治、经济、技术水平、安全素质、身体精神状态、家庭社会环境等的影响,变化很大,具有相当大的偶然性.由于人的不安全行为比物的不安全状态更难预测,更难空制,因此研究人的不安全行为产生的原因和规律性,有针对性地控制人的不安全行为,是企业安全管理工作所面临的日益紧迫的重要课题.