Development of the gap model ZELIG-CFS to predict the dynamics of North American mixed forest types with complex structures

When the development of gap models began about three decades ago, they became a new category of forest productivity models. Compared with traditional growth and yield models, which aim at deriving empirical relationships that best fit data, gap models use semi-theoretical relationships to simulate biotic and abiotic processes in forest stands, including the effects of photosynthetic active radiation interception, site fertility, temperature and soil moisture on tree growth and seedling establishment. While growth and yield models are appropriate to predict short-term stemwood production, gap models may be used to predict the natural course of species replacement for several generations. Because of the poor availability of historical data and knowledge on species-specific allometric relationships, species replacement and death rate, it has seldom been possible to develop and evaluate the most representative algorithms to predict growth and mortality with a high degree of accuracy. For this reason, the developers of gap models focused more on developing simulation tools to improve the understanding of forest succession than predicting growth and yield accurately.In a previous study, the predictions of simulations in two southeastern Canadian mixed ecosystem types using the ZELIG gap model were compared with long-term historical data. This exercise highlighted model components that needed modifications to improve the predictive capacity of ZELIG. The updated version of the model, ZELIG-CFS, includes modifications in the modelling of crown interaction effects, survival rate and regeneration. Different algorithms representing crown interactive effects between crowns were evaluated and species-specific model components that compute individual-tree mortality probability rate were derived. The results of the simulations were compared using long-term remeasurement data obtained from sample plots located in La Mauricie National Park of Canada in Quebec. In the present study, three forest types were studied: (1) red spruce-balsam fir-yellow birch, (2) yellow birch-sugar maple-balsam fir, and (3) red spruce-balsam fir-white birch mixed ecosystems. Among the seven algorithms that represented individual crown interactions, two better predicted the changes in basal area and individual-tree growth: (1) the mean available light growing factor (ALGF), which is computed from the proportion of light intercepted at different levels of individual crowns adjusted by the species-specific shade tolerance index, and (2) the ratio of mean ALGF to crown width. The long-term predicted patterns of change in basal area were consistent with the life history of the different species.     

Elevated atmospheric ozone increases concentration of insecticidal Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry1Ac protein in Bt Brassica napus and reduces feeding of a Bt target herbivore on the non-transgenic parent

Sustained cultivation of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) transgenic crops requires stable transgene expression under variable abiotic conditions. We studied the interactions of Bt toxin production and chronic ozone exposure in Bt cry1Ac-transgenic oilseed rape and found that the insect resistance trait is robust under ozone elevations. Bt Cry1Ac concentrations were higher in the leaves of Bt oilseed rape grown under elevated ozone compared to control treatment, measured either per leaf fresh weight or per total soluble protein of leaves. The mean relative growth rate of a Bt target herbivore, Plutella xylostella L. larvae was negative on Bt plants in all ozone treatments. On the non-transgenic plants, larval feeding damage was reduced under elevated ozone. Our results indicate the need for monitoring fluctuations in Bt toxin concentrations to reveal the potential of ozone exposure for altering dosing of Bt proteins to target and non-target herbivores in field environments experiencing increasing ozone pollution.     

Water quality, sediment, and soil characteristics near Fargo-Moorhead urban areas as affected by major flooding of the Red River of the North

Spring flooding of the Red River of the North (RR) is common, but little information exits on how these flood events affect water and overbank sediment quality within an urban area. With the threat of the spring 2009 flood in the RR predicted to be the largest in recorded history and the concerns about the flooding of farmsteads, outbuildings, garages, and basements, the objectives of this study, which focused on Fargo, ND, and Moorhead, MN, were to assess floodwater quality and to determine the quantity and quality of overbank sediment deposited after floodwaters recede and the quality of soil underlying sediment deposits. 17β-Estradiol was detected in 9 of 24 water samples, with an average concentration of 0.61 ng L. Diesel-range organics were detected in 8 of 24 samples, with an average concentration of 80.0 μg L. The deposition of sediment across locations and transects ranged from 2 to 10 kg m, and the greatest mass deposition of chemicals was closest to the river channel. No gasoline-range organics were detected, but diesel-range organics were detected in 26 of the 27 overbank sediment samples (maximum concentration, 49.2 mg kg). All trace elements detected in the overbank sediments were within ranges for noncontaminated sites. Although flooding has economic, social, and environmental impacts, based on the results of this study, it does not appear that flooding in the RR in F-M led to decreased quality of water, sediment, or soil compared with normal river flows or resident soil.     

Meta-analysis of susceptibility of woody plants to loss of genetic diversity through habitat fragmentation

Shrubs and trees are assumed less likely to lose genetic variation in response to habitat fragmentation because they have certain life-history characteristics such as long lifespans and extensive pollen flow. To test this assumption, we conducted a meta-analysis with data on 97 woody plant species derived from 98 studies of habitat fragmentation. We measured the weighted response of four different measures of population-level genetic diversity to habitat fragmentation with Hedge's d and Spearman rank correlation. We tested whether the genetic response to habitat fragmentation was mediated by life-history traits (longevity, pollination mode, and seed dispersal vector) and study characteristics (genetic marker and plant material used). For both tests of effect size habitat fragmentation was associated with a substantial decrease in expected heterozygosity, number of alleles, and percentage of polymorphic loci, whereas the population inbreeding coefficient was not associated with these measures. The largest proportion of variation among effect sizes was explained by pollination mechanism and by the age of the tissue (progeny or adult) that was genotyped. Our primary finding was that wind-pollinated trees and shrubs appeared to be as likely to lose genetic variation as insect-pollinated species, indicating that severe habitat fragmentation may lead to pollen limitation and limited gene flow. In comparison with results of previous meta-analyses on mainly herbaceous species, we found trees and shrubs were as likely to have negative genetic responses to habitat fragmentation as herbaceous species. We also found that the genetic variation in offspring was generally less than that of adult trees, which is evidence of a genetic extinction debt and probably reflects the genetic diversity of the historical, less-fragmented landscape.     

Carbon leakage and capacity-based allocations: Is the EU right?

Competitiveness and carbon leakage are major concerns for the design of CO₂ emissions permits markets. In the absence of a global carbon tax and of border carbon adjustments, output-based allocation is a third-best solution and is actually implemented (Australia, California, New Zealand). The EU has followed a different route; free allowances are allocated to existing or new capacities in proportion to a benchmark, independent of actual production. This paper compares these two schemes in a formal setting and shows that the optimal one is in fact a combination of both schemes, or output-based allocation alone if uncertainty is limited. A key assumption of our analysis is that the short-term import pressure depends both on the existing capacities and the level of demand, which is typical in capital intensive and internationally traded sectors. A calibration of the model is used to discuss the EU scheme for the cement sector in the third phase of the EU-ETS (2013–2020). This allows for a quantification of various policies in terms of welfare, investment, production, company profits, public revenues and leakage.     

Metallothionein induction, antioxidative responses, glycogen and growth changes in Tubifex tubifex (Oligochaete) exposed to the fungicide, fenhexamid

Laboratory studies were conducted to determine the effects of different concentrations of fenhexamid (0.1, 1, and 10 mg L(-1)) on growth, oxidative stress, protein, glycogen, and metallothionein (MT) contents in Tubifex tubifex after an exposure of 2, 4, and 7 days. In addition, residues of the fungicide were followed in water and in the worms. In water, fenhexamid concentration decreased slowly (maximum -2 +/- 0.03% after 2 days for 1 mg L(-1)). In the worms, it increased after 4 days and decreased thereafter, confirming that the worms were exposed to the fungicide and not to a degradation product. LC50 values were between 95.22 +/- 5.36 and 32.11 +/- 1.8 mg L(-1) depending on exposure time. Exposure to fenhexamid had a negative effect on T. tubifex growth (maximum effect -12.2 +/- 0.8% after 7 days with 10 mg L(-1)) demonstrating the toxic effect of the pesticide. This growth rate decrease was accompanied by a reduction in protein and glycogen contents. The activity of catalase (CAT), and glutathione reductase (GR) increased in response to the fungicide demonstrating an oxidative stress in the worms. In contrast glutathion-S-transferase activity (GST) decreased. Exposure to fenhexamid also induced synthesis of MT (maximum +78 +/- 8% after 2 days for 10 mg L(-1)). The specificity of MT concentration increase in response to metals is discussed.     

Self-organized digging activity in ant colonies

Many ant species adjust the volume of their underground nest to the colony size. We studied whether the regulation of the volume of excavated sand could result from an interplay between recruitment processes and ant density. Experiments were performed with different group sizes of workers in the ant Messor sancta. When presented with a thin homogeneous sand disk, these groups excavated networks of galleries in less than 3 days. The excavation dynamics were logistic shaped, which suggests the existence of a double feedback system: a positive one resulting in an initial exponential growth phase, and a negative one leading the dynamics to a saturation phase. The total volume of excavated sand was almost proportional to the number of workers. We then developed a model in which we incorporated the quantitative behavioral rules of the workers digging activity. A positive feedback was introduced in the form of a recruitment process mediated by pheromones. The model predicts that the excavation dynamics should be logistic shaped and the excavation should almost stop despite the absence of any explicit negative feedback. Moreover, the model was able to reproduce the positive linear relationship between nest volume and colony size.Communicated by K. Ross     

A simple and fast screening test to detect soils polluted by lead

Lead pollution is an environmental priority. The evaluation of contaminated soils was often based on the results of the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) or the synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP). This paper presents a simple and fast screening test to detect soil contaminated by lead. The test is based on the chemistry of the stomach (Cl- concentration, pH 2, T = 37 degrees C) and simulates the incidental oral ingestion of soil by young children. The gastric juice simulation test (GJST) and the TCLP were applied to six size fractions from five soils. The GJST solubilized more Pb (up to 169 mg/l) than the TCLP especially for the smallest size fraction. Particle size had less effect on the TCLP. The percentage of lead released with the GJST, was most significant for the <63 microm size fraction and varied from 18 to 74% of the total lead content. Lead leached during the TCLP as a function of the total lead content showed poor linear regression coefficient (R) values for soils <250 microm. R values were significant for all size fractions with the GJST. The pH of approximately 5 in the TCLP limits the solubilization of lead in the small size fractions. The five soils exceeded the toxicity threshold of 10 microgPb/dl of blood for a significant fraction of children between 0 and 36 months using the EPA's IEUBK model (Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic). But the TCLP did not detect lead contamination in two of these five soils. The GJST proved to be a better estimator of lead bioaccessibility in the gastrointestinal tract.