Hidden Markov models for circular and linear-circular time series

We introduce a new class of circular time series based on hidden Markov models. These are compared with existing models, their properties are outlined and issues relating to parameter estimation are discussed. The new models conveniently describe multi-modal circular time series as dependent mixtures of circular distributions. Two examples from biology and meteorology are used to illustrate the theory. Finally, we introduce a hidden Markov model for bivariate linear-circular time series and use it to describe larval movement of the fly Drosophila. Received: September 2003 / Revised: March 2004     

State of the Arctic Conference 2010: International Perspectives on Progress of Research Responsive to Decision-Makers’ Information Needs

The SoA conference emphasized that urgent questions posed by society and decision-makers in response to rapid Arctic change require that Arctic research address the broader concepts of sustainability as well as adaptation to and mitigation of interrelated environmental and socioeconomic change. Murray et al. (submitted) explore progress made in this context. The SoA meeting demonstrated significant progress by the Arctic community of scientists and stakeholders in meeting this challenge, as well as the need to better engage the private sector and find more effective ways to partner with relevant research activities outside of the polar regions.     

Ethnic differences in determinants of participation and non-participation in prenatal screening for Down syndrome: A theoretical framework

Objective To develop a theoretical framework for analysing ethnic differences in determinants of participation and non-participation in prenatal screening for Down syndrome. Methods We applied Weinstein's Precaution Adoption Process (PAP) Model to the decision of whether or not to participate in prenatal screening for Down syndrome. The prenatal screening stage model was specified by reviewing the empirical literature and by data from seven focus group interviews with Dutch, Turkish and Surinamese pregnant women in the Netherlands. Results We identified 11 empirical studies on ethnic differences in determinants of participation and non-participation in prenatal screening for Down syndrome. The focus group interviews showed that almost all stages and determinants in the stage model were relevant in women's decision-making process. However, there were ethnic variations in the relevance of determinants, such as beliefs about personal consequences of having a child with Down syndrome or cultural and religious norms. Discussion The prenatal screening stage model can be applied as a framework to describe the decision-making process of pregnant women from different ethnic backgrounds. It provides scope for developing culturally sensitive, tailored methods to guide pregnant women towards informed decision-making on participation or non-participation in prenatal screening for Down syndrome. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.