Forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lama guanicoe</Emphasis>): causes,variation, and fates of individuals dispersing at different times

We examined adult-juvenile conflict in the guanaco (Lama guanicoe). During spring, territorial males become increasingly aggressive toward all juveniles born the previous year and begin expelling them from family groups. In an apparent effort to reduce aggression, juveniles display submissive crouches when being observed, approached, or attacked by the territorial male. Therefore, we assessed the influence of juvenile submissive behavior on the timing of dispersal and also examined if dispersal time was related to survival and reproductive performance as adults. We also evaluated hypotheses regarding the evolution of juvenile mammalian dispersal in the context of if and how each may favor the forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos by territorial males. Juveniles generally dispersed in late spring and early summer, and a nearly equal proportion of females (n=46; 48%) and males (n=49; 52%) dispersed. More-submissive animals generally dispersed later than less-submissive animals. Juvenile sex and dispersal time were not related to survival. In contrast, juvenile sex and dispersal time were related to reproductive performance. The probability of reproducing was highest when juveniles dispersed early and decreased with increasing time in family groups prior to dispersal. The largest proportion of juveniles was forced to disperse during a 2-week interval following the peak of the breeding season. Competition for food resources is likely very intense at this juncture and territorial males may force older juveniles to disperse in order to divert food resources to younger neonates. Additionally, juveniles may be forced to disperse after territorial males mate their mothers to prevent lost mating opportunities, because females leave territories when their offspring disperse and possibly prior to mating with males. We conclude that the forced dispersal of juvenile guanacos by territorial males is ultimately driven by competition for food resources on territories. The timing of dispersal, however, may be tempered by the chronology of matings between territorial males and particular adult females, and/or genetic relatedness between territorial males and juveniles.     

Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

Planning implications from the interactions between renewable energy programs and carbon regulation

Complex relationships exist between programs to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the electricity sector and programs to promote renewable electricity generation. Simulation modeling of three scenarios in the UK electricity sector are used to identify potential interactions between these programs. A strict CO₂ cap can result in a renewable electricity requirement being easily met. Conversely, the renewables quota could be required under low natural gas prices to keep electricity suppliers from switching from coal to gas. Similarly, CO₂ trading can reduce renewables deployment levels because purchased CO₂ allowances replace renewables. Therefore, both programs are required to ensure CO₂ and renewables goals. The planning implications for administrative procedures and renewables subsidies are also discussed.     

Disciplined Planning,Structured Participation,and Collaborative Modeling — Applying Shared Vision Planning to Water Resources

Participatory planning applied to water resources has sparked significant interest and debate during the last decade. Recognition that models play a significant role in the formulation and implementation of design and management strategies has encouraged the profession to consider how such models can be best implemented. Shared Vision Planning (SVP) is a disciplined planning approach that combines traditional water resources planning methodologies with innovations such as structured public participation and the use of collaborative modeling, resulting in a more complete understanding and an integrative decision support tool. This study reviews these three basic components of SVP and explains how they are incorporated into a unified planning approach. The successful application of SVP is explored in three studies involving planning challenges: the National Drought Study, the Lake Ontario‐St. Lawrence River Study, and the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint/Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa River Basin Study. The article concludes by summarizing the advantages and limitations of this planning approach.     

Habitat loss, trophic collapse, and the decline of ecosystem services

The provisioning of sustaining goods and services that we obtain from natural ecosystems is a strong economic justification for the conservation of biological diversity. Understanding the relationship between these goods and services and changes in the size, arrangement, and quality of natural habitats is a fundamental challenge of natural resource management. In this paper, we describe a new approach to assessing the implications of habitat loss for loss of ecosystem services by examining how the provision of different ecosystem services is dominated by species from different trophic levels. We then develop a mathematical model that illustrates how declines in habitat quality and quantity lead to sequential losses of trophic diversity. The model suggests that declines in the provisioning of services will initially be slow but will then accelerate as species from higher trophic levels are lost at faster rates. Comparison of these patterns with empirical examples of ecosystem collapse (and assembly) suggest similar patterns occur in natural systems impacted by anthropogenic change. In general, ecosystem goods and services provided by species in the upper trophic levels will be lost before those provided by species lower in the food chain. The decrease in terrestrial food chain length predicted by the model parallels that observed in the oceans following overexploitation. The large area requirements of higher trophic levels make them as susceptible to extinction as they are in marine systems where they are systematically exploited. Whereas the traditional species-area curve suggests that 50% of species are driven extinct by an order-of-magnitude decline in habitat abundance, this magnitude of loss may represent the loss of an entire trophic level and all the ecosystem services performed by the species on this trophic level.     

Development of Models for Predicting the Distribution of Indoor Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations

Extensive data on residential indoor and outdoor NO₂ levels have been collected in a limited number of U.S. locations. To date, researchers have analyzed these data sets individually, but have not analyzed them in the aggregate. Results have not, therefore, been suitable for application in a nationwide exposure assessment. This paper presents an analysis of indoor and outdoor NO₂ field measurements from five U.S. metropolitan areas for homes with gas-fueled ranges and discusses potential applications of the results. Using linear regression analysis, the relationship between indoor NO₂ and various predictor variables was explored. Results indicated that ambient NO2 levels alone explain an estimated 37 percent of the variability in indoor NO₂ levels, that the relationship between indoor and outdoor NO₂ concentrations differs significantly from summer to winter months, and that homes with range pilot lights have indoor levels approximately 7 ppb greater than homes without pilot lights. A logistic regression model which predicts the distribution of indoor NO₂ levels based on ambient NO₂ concentrations was developed. Estimation and testing of the logistic model indicated good model performance. The model is particularly useful for addressing policy-oriented questions that involve the concept of "acceptable" threshold levels for human exposure to NO₂.     

Parameter Evaluation and Model Validation of Ozone Exposure Assessment Using Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study Data

Abstract

To examine factors influencing long‐term ozone (O₃) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O₃ concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one‐year‐long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O₃ concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance‐covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best‐linear unbiased prediction technique.The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O₃ concentration, central ambient O₃ concentration, outdoor O₃ concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O₃ concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O₃ for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost‐effectively predict personal O₃ exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost‐effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.     

Edible,Antioxiadant Films from Ultrasonically Extracted Plantago psyllium Seed Husk Flour Mucilage

Journal of Polymers and the Environment - In this study ultrasonic assisted extraction was applied to obtain film forming mucilage from Plantago psyllium seed husk flour. The ultrasonically...     

Particulate and Nicotine Sampling in Public Facilities and Offices

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to characterize and measure indoor air quality in public facilities and office buildings. The pollutants of interest were particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter, PM-2.5, and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Integrated PM- 2.5 samples were taken on Teflon membrane filters using Harvard Aerosol Impactors as a pre-size selector. Filters were analyzed by gravimetric analysis. Nicotine, which was used as a marker for ETS, was collected on sodium-bisulfate-impregnated, glass-fiber filters and was analyzed by gas chromatography. Twenty-one structures were monitored in Metropolitan Boston. Measured particle concentrations ranged from 6.0 μg/m³ to about 550 μg/m³. Nicotine concentrations were as high as 26 μg/m³ in a designated smoking room. Real-time measurements were also taken using two types of nephelometers; a Handheld Aerosol Monitor (HAM) and a Miniature Real-Time Aerosol Monitor (MINIRAM). Short-term field measurements with these instruments correlated better with the integrated PM-2.5 concentrations in smoking locations than with concentrations in non-smoking areas.