The Great Recession or progressive energy policies? Explaining the decline in US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts

This paper evaluates the causes of the 23% decline in 2030 US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts between 2007 and 2011. Dynamic regression modeling predicts that the Great Recession contributed to about 67% of the 2008–2009 emissions decline, but then fell to about an 18% share for the 2030 emissions forecast. An analysis of electricity generation forecasts show that switching from coal to gas contributed only 6% to the total 2030 decline. In contrast, regulatory impact assessments and policy analysis showed that state and federal policies were responsible for 46% of the 2030 decline in emissions.     

Hydrocarbon Production and Photochemical Ozone Formation in Forest Burn Plumes

The purpose of this paper is to describe ozone production in forest slash burn plumes. Plumes from controlled fires in the state of Washington were monitored using an instrumented aircraft. Ozone, oxides of nitrogen, condensation nuclei, and visual range (nephelometer) were measured continuously on board the plane. Airborne grab samples were collected for detailed hydrocarbon analysis.

The slash burn plumes were found to contain significant quantities of ozone. A buildup of 40–50 ppb above the ambient background ozone concentrations was not unusual. Hydrocarbon analyses revealed the presence of many photochemically reactive olefins in the plume. Hydrocarbon/NO _x ratios were favorable for photochemical oxidant production.     

Modeling the Effects of VOC/NOx Emissions on Ozone Synthesis in the Cascadia Airshed of the Pacific Northwest

ABSTRACT

A modeling system consisting of MM5, Calmet, and Calgrid was used to investigate the sensitivity of anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) reductions on ozone formation within the Cascadia airshed of the Pacific Northwest. An ozone episode that occurred on July 11-14, 1996, was evaluated. During this event, high ozone levels were recorded at monitors downwind of Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR, with one monitor exceeding the 1 hr/120 ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard (at 148 ppb), and six monitors above the proposed 8 hr/80 ppb standard (at 82-130 ppb). For this particular case, significant emissions reductions, between 25 and 75%, would be required to decrease peak ozone concentrations to desired levels. Reductions in VOC emissions alone, or a combination of reduced VOC and NO_x emissions, were generally found to be most effective; reducing NO_x emissions alone resulted in increased ozone in the Seattle area. When only VOC emissions were curtailed, ozone reductions occurred in the immediate vicinity of densely populated areas, while NO_x reductions resulted in more widespread ozone reductions.     

Marine Protected Area Design and the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Cetaceans in a Submarine Canyon

Abstract: The Gully, the largest submarine canyon off the coast of eastern Canada, is currently under consideration as a marine conservation area, primarily because of the increasing interest in oil and gas production on the Scotian Shelf. Cetaceans, as a guild of abundant, large organisms that are relatively sensitive to such threats, provide a reliable means to determine the boundaries for a conservation area in this region. We compared the abundance of cetaceans between the Gully and other parts of the Scotian Shelf and Slope and found that abundance was higher in the Gully. We also assessed cetacean distribution and relative abundance within the Gully relative to search effort for several spatial and temporal parameters: depth, slope, sea surface temperature, and month. Distribution within the Gully was most strongly correlated with depth, but was also significantly correlated with sea surface temperature and month. Five of the 11 cetacean species commonly found in the Gully, and all those for which the Gully formed significant habitat on the Scotian Shelf, were concentrated in the deep (200–2000 m) mouth of the canyon. We suggest that a year-round marine protected area is necessary for the Gully. A core protection zone should be defined in the Gully based on depth and bounded by the 200-m isobath. A buffer zone around the core zone should be defined to provide protection from activities with further-reaching effects, such as noise, dredging, and chemical pollution.     

Managing an Endangered Asian Bovid in an Australian National Park: The Role and Limitations of Ecological-Economic Models in Decision-Making

Should north Australia’s extensive populations of feral animals be eradicated for conservation, or exploited as a rare opportunity for Indigenous enterprise in remote regions? We examine options for a herd of banteng, a cattle species endangered in its native Asian range but abundant in Garig Gunak Barlu National Park, an Aboriginal land managed jointly by traditional owners and a conservation agency in the Northern Territory of Australia. We reflect on the paradoxes that arise when trying to deal effectively with such complex and contested issues in natural resource management using decision-support tools (ecological-economic models), by identifying the trade-offs inherent in protecting values whilst also providing incomes for Indigenous landowners.     

Modelling nitrogen fluxes at the landscape scale

The distribution and impacts of different nitrogen pollutants are inextricably linked. To understand the problem fully, the interactions between the different pollutants need to be taken into account. This is particularly important when it comes to abatement techniques, since measures to reduce emissions of one nitrogen pollutant can often lead to an increase in another. This project represents a step towards greater understanding of these issues by linking together new and existing nitrogen flux models into a larger framework. The modelling framework has been constructed and some of the nitrogen flows between fields, farms and the atmosphere have been modelled for a UK study area for typical farm management scenarios.